Tonight we wrap up NFL Week 12 with a Monday Night Football showdown between the Carolina Panthers and San Francisco 49ers. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for tonight’s primetime matchup using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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8:15 p.m. ET: Carolina Panthers at San Francisco 49ers (-7.5, 49.5)
The Panthers (6-5) just upset the Falcons 30-27 in overtime, winning outright as 3.5-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the 49ers (7-4) just clobbered the Cardinals 41-22, easily covering as 3.5-point road favorites.
This line opened with San Francisco listed as a 6.5-point home favorite.
Early pros jumped on the 49ers laying the chalk, steaming San Francisco up from -6.5 to -7.5.
However, now that the line has moved a full point in favor of the 49ers, we are starting to see some inflated dog buyback on the Panthers, as Carolina is being juiced up +7.5 (-115) across the market on gameday. Essentially, oddsmakers are forcing bettors to pay a higher price to take the Panthers plus the hook while also hinting at a possible dip back down to the key number of 7.
At DraftKings, Carolina is receiving 48% of spread bets and 60% of spread dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy indicating slight contrarian value but also heavier sharp action. However, Circa is showing 76% of spread bets and 92% of spread dollars on the 49ers, indicating sharp Pro and Joe money out in Vegas laying the points with the home favorite.
Primetime dogs, like Carolina here, are 19-17 ATS (53%) this season and 160-143 ATS (53%) with a 1.5% ROI since 2020. If the primetime dog is getting 6.5-points or more, they improve to 7-5 ATS (58%) this season and 60-43 ATS (58%) with a 12% ROI since 2020.
Big dogs +7.5 of more overall are 23-17 ATS (58%) with a 10% ROI this season. Big dogs +7.5 or more on Monday Night Football are 49-36 ATS (58%) with an 11% ROI since 2004.
Panthers QB Bryce Young is 19-16 ATS (54%) with a 4% ROI as a dog in his career. He is 8-5 ATS (62%) with a 19% ROI as a dog when getting 6-points or more.
Carolina is 7-3 ATS (70%) this season when getting points as a dog.
Meanwhile, 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan is 42-47 ATS (47%) as a favorite in his regular season career. He is only 20-27 ATS (43%) as a home favorite and 17-24 ATS (42%) as a favorite laying 6-points or more. 49ers QB Brock Purdy is 8-11 ATS (42%) as a favorite laying 6-points or more.
Those looking to back the 49ers but wary of the touchdown plus spread could instead target San Francisco in a Wong Teaser. By taking the 49ers down from -7.5 to -1.5, savvy value-minded bettors can pass through the top key numbers of 3 and 7.
In terms of the total, we’ve seen a steady stream of over action raise the line up from as low as 45.5 to 49.5.
At DraftKings, the over is taking 45% of bets and 57% of dollars. At Circa, the over is receiving 46% of bets and a whopping 88% of dollars. Both books are showing a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of a higher scoring game.
One critical factor over bettors must ask themselves is whether or not value remains after the total has ticked up so drastically.
Primetime unders are 23-16 (59%) with a 13% ROI this season and 213-152 (58%) with a 12% ROI since 2019.
When the total is 47.5 or more (a high total) in a primetime game, the under is 10-6 (62%) with an 18% ROI this season and 103-72 (59%) with a 13% ROI since 2017.
Monday Night Football unders are 8-6 (57%) with an 8% ROI this season and 74-52 (59%) with a 12% ROI since 2019. If the Monday Night Football total is 49 or more, the under is 18-11 (62%) with a 19% ROI since 2019.
The forecast looks ideal tonight at Levi’s Stadium, with temperatures expected to be in the high 50s with clear skies and mild 3 MPH winds.
