Enjoy Illinois 300 Predictions: Top 5 Picks and Best Long Shots:
Christopher Bell didn’t win a race all regular season long. All it took was the stakes ramping up a bit in the Chase for him to finally bring home that first checkered flag of 2026. He outlasted several other top contenders and won last week’s Southern 500 at Darlington at +1100 odds. As a result, he advances to the next stage of the postseason, which will begin in a few weeks. However, before that happens, we have a couple of other races to run, first this Sunday at World Wide Technology Raceway in Madison, IL, perhaps more often referred to as Gateway because of its proximity to St. Louis and its famous Arch. Bell is the top wagering option for this race too, at 4-1, as the oddsmakers at DraftKings seem to be thinking that his finally breaking the seal on winning could start a streak. He did capture three straight wins in the Cup Series a few years ago and has thus shown that potential. However, my initial simulation calls for a couple of other better options. I’ll share those in a bit as I preview this week’s Enjoy Illinois 300.
For those of you who have been following my NASCAR sims and writeups this season, you know that I believe flat short tracks offer the best predictability of any type on the circuit. Well, Gateway is an FST, with just 11-degree banking in turns 1 and 2 and nine degrees in turns 3 and 4. It is somewhat of an odd-shaped track as well, with the ¾ end of the egg-shaped oval offering a much wider format. The unusual shape of the track can make things interesting, and in the four races run here previously at the Cup Series level, three have featured double-digit caution flags.
Even still, that hasn’t affected the predictability all that badly, as this track earns a Handicap-Ability Grade of B+ on my scale. After three straight races at tracks with grades of B- or worse, this should be a welcome change. For those of you wondering which simulation factors are most critical to Gateway, those would be 1) how drivers do at flat short tracks and 2) qualifying. The past four winners here have started in spots 7, 1, 2, and 1, the most recent one being Denny Hamlin, who did it from the pole in this same race a year ago.
Not surprisingly, my initial simulation pegs Ryan Blaney to earn the pole, and considering how much the Penske Racing Team has dominated this track over the last four years, he is also atop the simulation projections. You will see a bit later in the stats just how successful Blaney & teammates Joey Logano and Austin Cindric have been here. Blaney is listed at +450 on the odds board. Hamlin is second on my sim and shown as a +475 contender. Logano is fourth, both in the odds at +700 and in my projections. The top three are grouped pretty tightly, thus I would expect one of those three favorites to eventually be visiting Victory Lane on Sunday.
Looking back at last week, things were mediocre at best for our final simulation at Darlington, as the extra length of the race compared to the spring seemed to wear on some of our top picks. Darlington’s C+ grade could be on the verge of dropping after that race. With that in mind, this is how the Cook Out Southern 500 impacted our season numbers to date.
Initial Darlington simulation winner: Loser (-1 unit) – NOW +0.85 units for the season
Final Darlington Simulation winner: Loser (-1 unit) – NOW +33.05 units for the season (These are +89.85 units for the last two seasons!)
Final Darlington Simulation Top 2 drivers To Win: Two losers – total return -2 units – NOW +16.35 units for the season
Final Darlington Simulation Top 3 drivers To Win: Three Losers – total return -3 units – NOW +14.15 units for the season
Final simulation top 3 Darlington projections: one winner, two losers –total return -0.85 units – NOW -2.65 units for the season
Final simulation top 5 Darlington projections: one winner, four losers – total return -4.2 units – Now -34 units for the season
We did score six Top 10s and that brought back -1.6 units. If you recall, I stopped recording those results last month when the Top 10 odds regularly went off our feed.
Now for my final personal picks, which are published each race day in the VSiN Email Newsletter.
Final simulation top 5 Darlington projections: two winners, three losers – total return -0.35 units – Now -48.85 units for the season
Top Darlington Longshots to win: four losers –total return -4 units – Now -8 units for the season
Favorites to struggle at Darlington: Bell (1st), Elliott (14th), Logano (9th), Gibbs (2nd)– Now 78 for 109 for the season, picking usual contending drivers to finish outside of the top 10.
I can assure you that I will never again pick drivers to struggle who finish 1st and 2nd in a race. That is an unbelievable anomaly, and I apologize to those who followed my advice on those picks. In fact, I would have been far better simply swapping the favorites/underdogs categories. Mama said there’d be days like this, and Darlington has such a long Southern 500 race that almost anything can and will happen.
Looking ahead to Gateway on Sunday, I dug up the stats for the four races run at this odd flat short track oval in the Next Gen Car era. The top guys in most categories seem to come from the Penske Racing team, but Denny Hamlin is the defending champion of this race. One thing to consider this week…this is the second race at WWTR run later in the season, in the playoff weeks. That can make a difference, as the drivers have different goals at this time of year than they did when the races were run in early June.
Of course, flat short tracks are generally the most predictable races on the circuit schedule, and we are due for a big performance this week after a very modest 4-5 race run. With a handicap-ability grade of B+, I’m expecting nice returns this week, and perhaps even an outright winner. That said, again, the top 3 simulation factors in order are 1) how drivers fare at flat short tracks, 2) qualifying, 3) recent momentum. The driver that would seem to benefit most from that recipe would be Ryan Blaney, with Christopher Bell a close second. We’ll see how qualifying shakes out, however.
Average Starting Positions Last Four Races at Gateway
1. Ryan Blaney: 9.5
2. Denny Hamlin: 9.75
3. Austin Cindric: 11
4. Tyler Reddick: 17.75
5. Christopher Bell: 8.5
6. Ross Chastain: 16.5
…
25. Carson Hocevar: 19.67
26. Zane Smith: 23
27. John Hunter Nemechek: 16.5
28. Noah Gragson: 28.33
29. Todd Gilliland: 21.25
30. Ryan Preece: 19.67
Average Practice Speed Rank Last Four Races at Gateway
1. Joey Logano: 6.5
2. Ty Gibbs: 7
3. Ryan Blaney: 8.5
4. Kyle Larson: 9
5. Tyler Reddick: 9.25
6. Carson Hocevar: 10.67
…
25. Daniel Suarez: 22.25
26. Noah Gragson: 25
27. Austin Dillon: 27.25
28. Ryan Preece: 28
29. AJ Allmendinger: 31
30. Shane Van Gisbergen: 33
Average Running Positions Last Four Races at Gateway
1. Ryan Blaney: 6
2. Joey Logano: 8
3. Christopher Bell: 9.75
4. Austin Cindric: 11.25
5. Denny Hamlin: 11.75
6. Kyle Larson: 12.75
…
25. Carson Hocevar: 22.67
26. Ryan Preece: 23
27. Noah Gragson: 23.67
28. Shane Van Gisbergen: 24
29. Todd Gilliland: 24.25
30. Josh Berry: 30
Average Fastest Laps Last Four Races at Gateway
1. Christopher Bell: 28.5
2. Ryan Blaney: 24.5
3. Denny Hamlin: 20.25
4. Kyle Larson: 14.5
5. Joey Logano: 7.5
6. Ross Chastain: 5.5
…
25. Alex Bowman: 0
26. John Hunter Nemechek: 0
27. AJ Allmendinger: 0
28. Zane Smith: 0
29. Noah Gragson: 0
30. Todd Gilliland: 0
Average Driver Rating Last Four Races at Gateway
1. Ryan Blaney: 111.65
2. Denny Hamlin: 111.2
3. Joey Logano: 107.45
4. Christopher Bell: 103.35
5. Austin Cindric: 91.75
6. Kyle Larson: 88.48
…
25. Ryan Preece: 52.67
26. Noah Gragson: 52.43
27. Zane Smith: 51.07
28. Todd Gilliland: 45.98
29. Josh Berry: 44.85
30. Shane Van Gisbergen: 41.4
Most Average Laps Run in Top 15 Last Four Races at Gateway
1. Ryan Blaney: 221.25
2. Joey Logano: 215.5
3. Christopher Bell: 194.5
4. Austin Cindric: 179.25
5. Denny Hamlin: 178.75
6. Kyle Larson: 167.5
…
25. Carson Hocevar: 53
26. Josh Berry: 37.5
27. Ryan Preece: 35.33
28. Noah Gragson: 32.67
29. Shane Van Gisbergen: 30
30. Todd Gilliland: 20.75
Best Average Finish Last Four Races at Gateway
1. Joey Logano: 3.5
2. Christopher Bell: 8.5
3. Ryan Blaney: 9.5
4. Kyle Larson: 9.5
5. Denny Hamlin: 9.75
6. Austin Cindric: 11
…
25. Zane Smith: 23
26. Alex Bowman: 23.25
27. Shane Van Gisbergen: 25
28. Ricky Stenhouse: 26
29. Noah Gragson: 28.33
30. Josh Berry: 36
As you look at these stats, you can quickly see how Gateway has essentially become a personal playground for Roger Penske and his racing team. In fact, they have three of the top five drivers in all of these categories: Average Run Position, Average Top 15 Laps, and Average Overall Driver Rating. With those stats in mind, my top-rated drivers at Gateway, in order, are Hamlin, Berry, Blaney, Bell, Logano. For track designation, the order is Blaney, Berry, Bell, Briscoe, Logano. In terms of recent ratings, the top 5 are Blaney, Briscoe, Bell, Gibbs, Larson. All of it goes into the making of my initial simulation, which can be seen now on the VSiN.com website by navigating under the SPORTS tab to AUTO RACING, then to NASCAR HUB.
The final simulation will be made available Saturday late afternoon after practice & qualifying, which is set for 3:30 p.m. ET. Remember, qualifying and starting spot have been crucial lately. That said, having to make my predictions at this point (which could change a bit after P&Q), I would go with the following:
Top 5: Blaney, Bell, Logano, Hamlin, Berry
Top underdogs to consider (+1200 or more): Gibbs, Reddick, Berry, Cindric
Favorites to struggle: Elliott, Wallace, Buescher, Bowman, Hocevar
The 240-lap event at WWTR is set for 3:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, September 13th.
Be sure to visit VSiN.com for this week’s full initial simulation. This is where you’ll find the sims all season long. While there, you can click on driver links for season stats and recent results, plus get current odds and much, much more.
