Tonight we wrap up NFL Week 17 with a Monday Night Football showdown between the Los Angeles Rams and Atlanta Falcons. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for tonight’s primetime matchup using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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8:15 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Rams (-7.5, 49.5) at Atlanta Falcons
The Rams (11-4) just saw their two-game win streak come to an end, falling to the Seahawks 38-38 in overtime but covering as 1.5-point road dogs. On the other hand, the Falcons (6-9) have won two in a row and just dismissed the Cardinals 26-19, covering as 2.5-point road favorites.
This line opened with Los Angeles listed as an 8-point road favorite.
The public thinks this line is way too short and 79% of spread bets at DraftKings are rushing to the window to lay the chalk with the Rams.
However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen Los Angeles fall from -8 to -7.5, with some shops even down to -7 on game day.
Taking a step back, why would the oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for the public to cover when they’re already pounding the Rams to begin with? Because respected smart money has sided with the Falcons plus the points, triggering sharp reverse line movement in favor of the unpopular home dog.
The Falcons offer heightened “bet against the public” value as Atlanta is only receiving 21% of spread bets in a heavily bet, nationally televised primetime game.
At Circa, Atlanta is receiving 39% of spread bets but a whopping 67% of spread dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian bet discrepancy from the wiseguys out in Vegas.
Primetime dogs are 30-23 ATS (57%) with an 8% ROI this season and 171-149 ATS (53%) with a 3% ROI since 2020. Big primetime dogs getting 6-points or more are 10-8 ATS (56%) with a 6% ROI this season and 38-26 ATS (59%) with a 14% ROI since 2022.
Big home dogs getting 6.5-points or more are 15-8 ATS (65%) with a 24% ROI this season and 84-54 ATS (61%) with a 16% ROI since 2020.
Home dogs who missed the playoffs the previous season facing a favorite who made the playoffs the previous season are 26-16 ATS (62%) with an 18% ROI this season.
Home conference dogs are 40-34 ATS (54%) with a 3% ROI this season. If the home conference dog is getting 7-points or more, they improve to 13-6 ATS (68%) with a 30% ROI this season.
In terms of the total, it opened at 48.5, reached as high as 50 and has since come back down to 49.5. On gameday, the under 49.5 is being juiced up to -115 and a few other books like Circa have inched down to 49.
At DraftKings, the under is taking in 32% of bets but 63% of dollars. However, Circa is showing 74% of bets and 89% of dollars sweating the over.
When the total is 49 or more, the over is 22-18 (55%) with a 4% ROI this season.
On the other hand, primetime unders are 30-26 (54%) with a 2.5% ROI this season and 131-97 (57%) with a 10% ROI since 2022.
When the primetime under is 47.5 or more, the under is 12-10 (55%) with a 4% ROI this season and 105-76 (58%) with a 12% ROI since 2017.
