Tonight we kick off NFL Week 16 with a Thursday Night Football showdown between the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for tonight’s primetime showdown using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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8:15 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-1.5, 42.5)
The Rams (11-3) have won two straight and just took down the Lions 41-34, covering as 5.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Seahawks (11-3) just edged the Colts 18-16 but failed to cover as 12.5-point home favorites.
This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a 1.5-point road favorite.
The public thinks the Rams are the better team and 65% of spread bets at DraftKings are backing Los Angeles on the road.
However, despite the Rams receiving nearly two-thirds of tickets we’ve seen the line completely flip in favor of the Seahawks, steaming Seattle from a 1.5-point home dog to a 1.5-point home favorite.
In other words, we are seeing sharp “dog to favorite” reverse line movement in favor of Seattle, as the line has moved in their direction despite the public backing Los Angeles.
The Seahawks offer rare “bet against the public” chalk value, as Seattle is only receiving roughly one-third of tickets in a heavily bet primetime game.
At DraftKings, the Seahawks are taking in 35% of spread bets but 44% of spread dollars. At Circa, Seattle is receiving 38% of spread bets but a whopping 73% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of the “fade the trendy dog” home chalk.
Many pros have looked to mitigate some risk in the event of a potentially close game by targeting the Seahawks on the moneyline at -125.
At DraftKings, Seattle is receiving 34% of moneyline bets but 52% of moneyline dollars, another sharp discrepancy in favor of a straight up Seahawks victory.
When both teams are coming off a win, as is the case here, the home favorite is 23-9 (72%) straight up with a 2% ROI this season and 115-42 (73%) straight up with an 8% ROI since 2022.
Thursday Night Football home favorites are 7-4 (64%) straight up this season and 140-51 (73%) straight up with a 4.5% ROI since 2006.
This is also a revenge game for Seattle, who lost to Los Angeles 21-19 on the road back in Week 11.
In terms of the total, we’ve seen the line plummet from as high as 47.5 to 42.5.
This downward movement is especially notable because the public is playing the over (71% of bets at DraftKings), yet the total fell. At Circa, the under is taking in only 16% of bets but 56% of dollars, a sharp contrarian bet split in favor of a lower scoring game.
A big reason for the under steam is the weather in Seattle. The forecast calls for low 50s with 20 MPH winds and gusts up to 40 MPH (mostly in the first half and tapering off a bit as the game goes on). There could also be some rain showers.
Primetime unders are 28-21 (57%) with a 9% ROI this season and 129-92 (58%) with a 12% ROI since 2022.
Windy unders 10 MPH or more are 21-11 (66%) with a 25% ROI this season and 162-185 (59%) with a 13% ROI since 2016.
Outdoor divisional unders are 26-23 (53%) with a 2% ROI this season and 325-275 (54%) with a 5% ROI since 2017.
The Rams are expected to miss starting WR Davante Adams due to a hamstring injury.
