Today we have a Saturday doubleheader of NFL Week 16 action on tap. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for both games using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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5 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Eagles (-7, 44.5) at Washington Commanders
The Eagles (9-5) just snapped a three-game losing skid with a 31-0 shutout win over the Raiders, easily covering as 12.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Commanders (4-10) just ended an eight-game losing streak with a 29-21 win over the Giants, winning outright as 2.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a 5.5-point road favorite.
The public thinks this line is a bit short and they’re rushing to the window to lay the points with the Eagles.
With 79% of spread bets at DraftKings backing Philadelphia we’ve seen the Eagles get steamed up from -5.5 to -7. Some books even touched as high as Eagles -7.5, at which point some respected buyback took Commanders plus the hook (+7.5), dropping the line back down to Eagles -7.
Washington offers heightened “bet against the public” value as the Commanders are only receiving 21% of spread bets (but 30% of spread dollars) in a heavily bet, nationally televised game on FOX.
The Commanders have betting system value as a divisional dog, with the built in familiarity and rivalry aspect leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points. Divisional dogs are 37-33 ATS (53%) with a 2% ROI this season and 291-249 ATS (54%) with a 4% ROI since 2020.
Big home dogs +7 or more are 11-6 ATS (65%) with a 23% ROI this season and 80-52 ATS (61%) with a 15% ROI since 2020.
Jalen Hurts is just 7-13 ATS (35%) as a favorite of 7-points or more in his career. Meanwhile, Marcus Mariota is 11-6 ATS (65%) with a 24% ROI as a dog of 5-points or more in his career.
Washington has additional correlative betting value as a touchdown dog in a relatively low total game (44.5), with the fewer amount of expected points scored making it harder for the favorite to cover the big chalk.
In terms of the total, we’ve seen it dip from 45 to 44.5, with some shops inching down to 44 on gameday.
At DraftKings, the under is taking in 42% of bets and 61% of dollars. At Circa, the under is receiving 55% of bets and a whopping 98% of dollars. Both books are showing a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of a lower scoring game.
Outdoor divisional unders are 26-24 (52%) this season and 325-276 (54%) with a 4.5% ROI since 2017.
The forecast calls for high 30s with partly cloudy skies and 7-10 MPH winds with gusts up to 20-25 MPH later in the game.
8:20 p.m. ET: Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (-1.5, 45.5)
The Packers (9-4-1) just saw their four-game winning streak come to an end, falling to the Broncos 34-26 and losing outright as 1.5-point road favorites. On the other hand, the Bears (10-4) just crushed the Browns 31-3, easily covering as 7.5-point home favorites.
This line opened with Green Bay listed as high as a 3-point road favorite.
Sharps have pounced on Chicago at home, flipping the Bears from a 3-point home dog to a 1.5-point home favorite. In other words, we are seeing wiseguy “dog to favorite” line movement in favor of Chicago.
At DraftKings, the Bears are receiving 62% of spread bets and 72% of spread dollars. At Circa, Chicago is taking in 70% of spread bets and a heavy 84% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” one-way Pro and Joe bet discrepancy in favor of the home team.
Many pros have looked to mitigate some risk and protect themselves in the event of a close game by targeting Chicago on the moneyline at -115.
At DraftKings, the Bears are taking in 60% of moneyline bets and 82% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Chicago is receiving 61% of moneyline bets and 73% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp money split in favor of a straight up Bears victory.
This is also a revenge game for Chicago, who lost to Green Bay two weeks ago 28-21 and failed to cover as 6.5-point road dogs. Historically, it’s been difficult for divisional opponents to sweep a season series.
Those looking to go the other way and buy-low on the Packers could elect to target Green Bay in a Wong Teaser. By taking Green Bay up from +1.5 to +7.5, savvy value-minded bettors can pass through the top key numbers of 3 and 7.
In terms of the total, we’ve seen some sneaky under liability. It opened at 45.5 and is now being juiced up under 45.5 (-115) with a few books falling to 45 on gameday.
At DraftKings, the under is receiving 40% of bets and 49% of dollars. At Circa, the under is taking in 50% of bets and a massive 97% of dollars, further evidence of heavy smart money banking on a lower scoring game out in Vegas.
Primetime unders are 28-22 (56%) with a 7% ROI this season and 129-93 (58%) with an 11% ROI since 2022.
Weather could also play a factor, as the forecast calls for low 30s with partly cloudy skies and 15 MPH winds with gusts up to 30 MPH, making this a “windy under” system match.
When the wind blows 10 MPH or more the under is 20-12 (64%) with a 22% ROI this season and 262-186 (58%) with a 12% ROI since 2016.
The Packers will be without star pass rusher Micah Parsons, who was placed on season ending IR with a torn ACL.
