Today we kick off the weekend with a rare Saturday doubleheader of NFL action, as the Houston Texans face the Kansas City Chiefs and the Pittsburgh Steelers play the Baltimore Ravens. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for both matchups using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.

 

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1 p.m. ET: Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5, 42.5)

The Texans (9-5) have won three of their last four games and just brushed aside the Dolphins 20-12, covering as 3-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Chiefs (13-1) have won four straight and just dismissed the Browns 21-7, covering as 4.5-point road favorites.

This line opened with Kansas City listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. Early in the week, it was unclear whether Patrick Mahomes would play or not after suffering a low ankle sprain in last week’s win over Cleveland. With his status up in the air, we saw a big adjustment toward Houston, with the Texans flipping to a 3-point road favorite. However, once the news surfaced that Mahomes was good to go and removed from the injury report the line flipped back to Chiefs -3.5. Essentially, we are right back to where we started.

At DraftKings, the Texans are receiving 54% of spread bets and 65% of spread dollars. At Circa, which prides itself on taking in smart money from pro bettors, the Texans are receiving 48% of spread bets but 76% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a relatively undecided public but also heavy smart money on Houston in the form of a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. The juice is also showing liability on Houston plus the points as the Texans are +3.5 (-115), indicating a possible game day dip down to the key number of 3. C.J. Stroud is 7-3 ATS (70%) as a dog in his career. Mahomes is just 2-5 ATS (29%) as a home favorite this season. Saturday road teams are 22-13 ATS (63%) with a 20% ROI since 2018.

Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 44.5 to 42.5. This movement is notable because the public is playing the over (61% of bets at DraftKings and 55% of bets at Circa), yet the total fell. When the total falls at least a point, the under is 290-238 (55%) with a 5% ROI since 2021. The Texans are 10-4 to the under this season, the best under team in the NFL. The Chiefs are 8-6 to the under, the 9th best under team. The forecast calls for low 30s with clear skies and mild 5 MPH winds at Arrowhead Stadium.

4:30 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5, 44.5)

The Steelers (10-4) just saw their two-game win streak come to an end, falling to the Eagles 27-13 and failing to cover as 5.5-point road dogs. On the flip side, the Ravens (9-5) have rotated wins and losses over their over their last four games but just crushed the Giants 35-14, covering as 16.5-point road favorites.

The early opener for this game was Baltimore as low as -4.5 at home. The public thinks this line is a bit high and 57% of spread bets at DraftKings are taking the points with Pittsburgh. However, despite the Steelers receiving a majority of bets we’ve actually seen this line move further toward Baltimore -4.5 to -6.5. Over the past 24-hours in particular, we’ve seen the Ravens creep up from -6.5 to -7 at some shops, indicating continued sharp action fading the trendy dog Steelers and instead laying the points with the contrarian favorite Ravens. Essentially, all movement from open to current has been in favor of Baltimore. At Circa, Baltimore is only taking in 49% of spread bets but a whopping 97% of spread dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of the Ravens at home.

Wiseguys are also expecting a lower scoring game and have driven the total down from 46.5 to 44.5. At DraftKings, the under is taking in 46% of bets but 62% of dollars. At Circa, the under is receiving 77% of bets but 99% of dollars. Both books are displaying a sharp bet discrepancy in favor of the under. Outdoor divisional unders are 248-205 (55%) with a 6% ROI since 2021. Weather could also play a role here, as the forecast calls for low 30s with partly cloudy skies and 10-15 MPH winds with gusts up to 25 MPH. When the wind blows 10 MPH or more, the under is 267-202 (57%) with a 9% ROI since 2016. When the wind blows 10 MPH or more in a division game, the under is 35-19 (65%) with a 23% ROI since 2022. Bill Vinovich, the lead ref, is 59% to the under historically.

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