Today we have a Saturday doubleheader of NFL Week 17 action on tap. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for both matchups using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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4:30 p.m. ET: Houston Texans at Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5, 39.5)
The Texans (10-5) have won seven straight games and just held off the Raiders 23-21 but failed to cover as 14.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Chargers (11-4) have won four in a row and just brushed aside the Cowboys 34-17, easily winning outright as 1.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Houston listed as a short 1.5-point road favorite.
The public sees two playoff-bound teams with similar records and can’t decide whether to take the points or lay them.
However, despite this 50/50 ticket split at DraftKings we’ve seen the line flip in favor of Los Angeles, steaming the Chargers up from a 1.5-point home dog to a 1.5-point home favorite. Some books even briefly reached as high as Chargers -2.5 before coming back down to Los Angeles -1.5.
Normally, in a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even because, theoretically, the oddsmakers have balanced action and no need to adjust the spread one way or the other. So, based on the “dog to favorite” line move we can infer that the bigger, sharper and more respected wagers have sided with the Chargers at home.
While the public is split at DraftKings, we are seeing 70% of spread bets and 71% of spread dollars at Circa backing Los Angeles. This indicates heavy one-way support in favor of the Chargers from the wiseguys out in Vegas.
Many pros have looked to protect themselves in the event of a close game by targeting Los Angeles on the moneyline at -120.
At Circa, Los Angeles is taking in 38% of moneyline bets and 47% of moneyline dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian split in favor of a straight up Chargers victory.
When both teams are coming off a win, as is the case here, the home favorite is 24-10 (71%) straight up with a 1.5% ROI this season and 116-43 (73%) straight up with an 8% ROI since 2022.
In his career, Justin Herbert is 42-21 (67%) straight up as a favorite. Meanwhile, C.J. Stroud is 7-11 (39%) straight up as a dog.
Those looking to go the other way and back Houston might prefer a Texans “Wong Teaser.” By taking Houston up from +1.5 to +7.5, savvy value-minded bettors can pass through the top key numbers of 3 and 7.
In terms of the total, it opened at 39.5, briefly rose up to as high as 40.5 and have since come back down to the opener of 39.5.
At DraftKings, the over is receiving 57% of bets and 71% of dollars. However, Circa is showing 24% of bets and a whopping 72% of dollars on the under.
When the total is 40 or less, the under is 12-9 (57%) with a 9% ROI this season.
8 p.m. ET: Baltimore Ravens at Green Bay Packers (-3, 38.5)
The Ravens (7-8) have dropped three of their last four and just fell to the Patriots 28-24, losing outright as 3.5-point home favorites. Similarly, the Packers (9-5-1) have lost two straight and just came up short against the Bears 22-16 in overtime, failing to cover as 1.5-point road dogs.
This line has been all over the place due to quarterback injuries for both teams. Baltimore is starting Tyler Huntley in place of Lamar Jackson and Green Bay will have Malik Willis under center in place of Jordan Love.
Initially, Green Bay opened as a 2.5-point home favorite. Early action pushed the Packers up from -2.5 to as high as -5.5. However, once we reached the high water mark of Packers -5.5 we saw some heavy buyback on the inflated dog Ravens, dropping the line back down to Packers -3.
On gameday, we are seeing the Ravens get juiced up +3 (-115), indicating some respected liability on the dog at the key number and a possible move down to Ravens +2.5.
At DraftKings, Baltimore is receiving 35% of spread bets and a hefty 70% of spread dollars. Meanwhile, Circa is showing 65% of spread bets and dollars laying the points with Green Bay.
Those looking to back the Packers at home might prefer to protect themselves and play Green Bay on the moneyline at -155.
When both teams are coming off a loss, as is the case here, favorite is 40-14 (74%) straight up with a 5% ROI this season and 131-55 (70%) straight up with a 3.5% ROI since 2023. Non-conference favorites are 51-23 (69%) straight up this season and 317-138 (70%) straight up since 2020.
Green Bay enjoys a one-day rest advantage, having last played on Saturday while the Ravens played on Sunday.
In terms of the total, we’ve seen it plummet from as high as 46.5 down to 38.5 with both backup quarterbacks playing. The under 38.5 is being juiced up to -115, signaling further under liability and a possible dip down to 38.
At DraftKings, the under is taking in 51% of bets and 54% of dollars. However, Circa is showing 71% of bets and 88% of dollars on the over.
The forecast calls for mid 30s with cloudy skies and 8-10 MPH winds at Lambeau Field.
Primetime unders are 30-24 (56%) with a 6% ROI this season and 131-95 (58%) with an 11% ROI since 2022.
When the total is 40 or less, the under is 12-9 (57%) with a 9% ROI this season.
