Today the NFL Postseason returns with a pair of Divisional Round matchups to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for both playoff games using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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4:30 p.m. ET: Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos (-1.5, 45.5)
The Bills (13-5) are the 6-seed and just took down the Jaguars 27-24 in the Wild Card round, winning outright as 1.5-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Broncos (14-3) are the 1-seed and just enjoyed a bye week.
This line opened with Buffalo listed as a 1.5-point road favorite.
The public refuses to bet against Josh Allen and 61% of spread bets at DraftKings are backing the Bills on the road.
However, despite Buffalo receiving a majority of tickets we’ve seen this line flip in favor of Denver, moving the Broncos from a 1.5-point home dog to a 1.5-point home favorite.
In other words, we are seeing sharp “dog to favorite” and “fade the trendy dog” reverse line movement in favor of the Broncos at home.
Denver offers heightened “bet against the public” value as the Broncos are only receiving 39% of spread bets in a heavily bet, nationally televised playoff game on CBS.
The schedule also favors the Broncos, who are coming off a bye while the Bills are playing their second straight road game and are also on a short week having played last Sunday.
Many pros have looked to mitigate some risk by playing Denver on the moneyline at -120.
At Circa, the Broncos are taking in 42% of moneyline bets and a whopping 72% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split from the wiseguys in the desert in favor of a straight up Denver win.
Divisional round home favorites are 19-8 (70%) straight up since 2018.
Those looking to go the other way and back Buffalo may prefer a Wong Teaser. By taking the Bills up from +1.5 to +7.5, value-minded bettors can pass through the top key numbers of 3 and 7.
In terms of the total, we’ve seen it tick down from 47 to 45.5.
Playoff unders are 4-2 (67%) this postseason and 51-41 (55%) with a 6% ROI since 2018. When the total falls at least a half point, playoff unders are 2-1 (67%) this postseason and 28-22 (56%) with an 8% ROI since 2017.
The forecast calls for mid 30s with clear skies and mild 5 MPH winds at Mile High.
8 p.m. ET: San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-7, 44.5)
The 49ers (13-5) are the 6-seed and just upset the Eagles 23-19 in the Wild Card round, winning outright as 5.5-point road dogs. On the other hand, the Seahawks (14-3) are the 1-seed and are coming off a bye.
This line opened with Seattle listed as a 7-point home favorite.
Early in the week, we saw the Seahawks tick up from -7 to -7.5.
However, since that time we’ve seen nothing but sharp buyback on the 49ers plus the hook, as the Seahawks have fallen back down from -7.5 to -7. In addition, several shops are juicing up the 49ers side (+7 at -115), signaling further liability on San Francisco and a possible game-day dip down to +6.5.
At DraftKings, the 49ers are receiving 72% of spread bets and 66% of spread dollars. At Circa, San Francisco is taking in 76% of spread bets and a hefty 91% of spread dollars. Both books are showing one-way Pro and Joe support in favor of the 49ers plus the points.
Playoff dogs who missed the postseason the previous year, like the 49ers here, are 3-0 ATS this postseason and 29-12 ATS (71%) with a 37% ROI since 2020. When both teams missed the playoffs the previous season, as is the case here, the road dog is 10-3 ATS (77%) with a 51% ROI since 2017.
The 49ers have additional betting system value as a divisional dog, with the built in familiarity and rivalry aspect leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points.
Late window playoff dogs (4 p.m. ET or later) are 3-2 ATS this postseason and 48-31 ATS (61%) with an 18% ROI since 2017.
Kyle Shanahan is 22-16 ATS (58%) with a 12% ROI as a road dog in his career, including 4-1 ATS (80%) as a road dog in the postseason.
Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 45.5 to 44.5.
At DraftKings, the under is taking in 60% of bets and 66% of dollars. At Circa, the under is receiving 70% of bets and 72% of dollars.
Primetime playoff unders are 2-1 this postseason and 9-2 (81%) with a 55% ROI since 2023.
The forecast calls for mid 40s with clear skies and mild 5 MPH winds at Lumen Field.
Super Bowl Champion (DraftKings)
Seahawks +270
Rams +320
Patriots +600
Bills +650
Broncos +700
Texans +850
Bears +1600
49ers +2000
