Today we have a loaded NFL Week 15 slate on tap with 14 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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4:25 p.m. ET: Green Bay Packers (-1.5, 42.5) at Denver Broncos
The Packers (9-3-1) have won four in a row and just held off the Bears 28-21, covering as 6.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, the Broncos (11-2) have won ten straight and just outlasted the Raiders 24-17 but failed to cover as 8.5-point road favorites.
This line opened with Green Bay listed as a 1.5-point road favorite.
The public is split down the middle at DraftKings and doesn’t know whether to take the points or lay them.
Earlier in the week, we saw the Packers tick up from -1.5 to -2.5.
However, over the past 24-48 hours we’ve seen nothing but sharp buyback on the Broncos, dropping Denver back down from +2.5 to +1.5, with some shops even inching down to +1 on gameday. Essentially, all late movement and liability is breaking back down toward the Broncos plus the points.
At Circa, Denver is taking in 58% of spread bets but 82% of spread dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split and further evidence of heavy pro money backing the home dog.
The Broncos are also taking in 59% of moneyline bets and 69% of moneyline dollars at Circa, indicating wiseguy desert support in favor of a straight up Denver win.
Denver enjoys heightened home-field advantage due to the altitude at Mile High. The Broncos are 6-0 at home this season.
The Broncos are also in a prime Wong Teaser spot. By taking Denver up from +1.5 to +7.5, savvy pros can pass through the top key numbers of 3 and 7.
4:25 p.m. ET: Carolina Panthers (-2.5, 40.5) at New Orleans Saints
The Panthers (7-6) have rotated wins and losses over their last six games and just upset the Rams 31-28, winning outright as 10-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Saints (3-10) just snapped a two-kid losing skid with a 24-20 win over the Buccaneers, winning outright as 7.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Carolina listed as a 2.5-point road favorite.
The public thinks this line is way too short and 80% of spread bets at DraftKings are laying the points with the Panthers.
However, despite receiving such heavy support we’ve seen the Panthers remain relatively static at -2.5.
Normally, if a team is getting such lopsided betting in their favor you would expect them to rise up from -2.5 to -3, -3.5 or higher. However, the fact that the line has barely budged despite such overwhelming action on Carolina signals a sharp “line freeze” in favor of the Saints.
New Orleans is only receiving 20% of spread bets at DraftKings, making the Saints one of the top contrarian plays of the day.
The Saints have betting system value as a divisional dog, with the built in familiarity and rivalry aspect leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points.
New Orleans also has correlative betting value as a dog in a low total game (40.5), with the fewer amount of expected points scored making it harder for the favorite to cover.
Those looking to go contrarian and back the unpopular home dog would be wise to shop around for Saints +3, as a few books are offering the key number while the rest of the market sits at +2.5.
The Saints could also be worth a look in a Wong Teaser. By taking New Orleans up from +2.5 to +8.5, value-minded bettors can pass through the top key numbers of 3 and 7.
8:20 p.m. ET: Minnesota Vikings at Dallas Cowboys (-5.5, 47.5)
The Vikings (5-8) just snapped a four-game losing streak with a 31-0 shutout win over the Commanders, easily covering as 1.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, the Cowboys (6-6-1) just saw their three-game win streak come to an end, falling to the Lions 44-30 and failing to cover as 3.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Dallas listed as a 7.5-point home favorite.
The public likes the Cowboys to get back on track and 75% of spread bets at DraftKings are laying the points with Dallas at home.
However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen the Cowboys fall from -7.5 to -5.5.
Why would the oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for the public to cover when they’re already hammering Dallas to begin with? Because respected smart money has jumped on Minnesota plus the points, triggering sharp reverse line movement in favor of the road dog.
Minnesota is one of the top “bet against the public” plays of the day as the Vikings are only receiving 25% of spread bets in a heavily bet, nationally televised primetime game.
At Circa, the Vikings are receiving 35% of spread bets but a whopping 77% of spread dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian bet split indicating heavy pro support from sharps in Vegas.
