Today the NFL Divisional Round continues with a pair of playoff games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for both matchups using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.

 

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3 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5, 43)

The Rams (11-7) are the 4-seed and just crushed the Vikings 27-9 in the Wild Card round, easily winning outright as 2.5-point neutral site dogs. Meanwhile, the Eagles (15-3) are the 2-seed and just took down the Packers 22-10 in the Wild Card round, covering as 5.5-point home favorites.

This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a 5.5-point home favorite. We’ve seen one-sided line movement in favor of the Eagles, as Philadelphia has risen up from -5.5 to -6.5. Several shops are juicing up Eagles -6.5 (-115) on gameday, hinting at a possible further move up to the key number of -7. At DraftKings, the Eagles are receiving 54% of spread bets and 70% of spread dollars. At Circa, the Eagles are taking in 55% of spread bets and 88% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of Philadelphia.

Those looking to play the Eagles but wary of laying points around a touchdown could instead target Philadelphia in a teaser. By taking the Eagles down from -6.5 to -0.5, value-minded bettors are able to pass through the key number of 3 so they can just root for Philadelphia to win the game straight up.

The Rams have slight contrarian value, as they are only taking in roughly 45% of spread bets in a heavily bet postseason game. Playoff dogs are 5-3 ATS this postseason and 57-37 ATS (61%) with an 18% ROI since 2017. Los Angeles has correlative betting value as a touchdown dog in a low total game (43), with the fewer amount of expected points scored making it harder for the favorite to cover. Sean McVay is 5-2 ATS (71%) as a dog in his postseason coaching career. Shawn Smith, the lead ref, is 54% ATS to the road team historically.

Pros have also targeted the under, dropping the line from 44.5 to 43. We’ve seen some game-day over buyback, as the total fell to 42.5 and has risen back up to 43. At DraftKings, the public is playing the over (60% of bets). However, at Circa the under is taking in 49% of bets but 59% of dollars, a sharp bet split.

Weather could play a major role here, as the forecast calls for mid 30s with snow and 7-10 MPH sustained winds with gusts up to 20 MPH. Playoff unders are 6-2 (75%) this postseason and 52-41 (56%) with an 8% ROI since 2017. When the total falls at least a half point in a postseason game, the under is 3-1 (75%) this postseason and 26-18 (59%) with a 14% ROI since 2017.

6:30 p.m. ET: Baltimore Ravens (-1.5, 51.5) at Buffalo Bills

The Ravens (13-5) are the 3-seed and just crushed the Steelers 28-14 in the Wild Card round, covering as 9.5-point home favorites. Similarly, the Bills (14-4) are the 2-seed and just brushed aside the Broncos 31-7 in the Wild Card round, easily covering as 7.5-point home favorites.

This line opened with Buffalo listed as a 1.5-point home favorite. Sharps have pounced on the Ravens, flipping Baltimore from a 1.5-point road dog to a 1.5-point road favorite. Essentially, we are seeing sharp “dog to favorite” line movement in favor of the Ravens. At DraftKings, Baltimore is taking in 45% of spread bets and 51% of spread dollars. At Circa, the Ravens are receiving 44% of spread bets and 60% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the Ravens.

Bettors have several alternative ways to play this game as the line is so short for both sides. Those looking to follow the sharp Ravens move could mitigate some risk by taking Baltimore to win straight up on the moneyline (-120). On the flip side, those looking to buy low on Buffalo could either play the points with the hook (+1.5), or place the Bills in a Wong Teaser (+1.5 to +7.5), which passes through the top key numbers of 3 and 7.

Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 52.5 to 51.5. Several shops are juicing up the under 51.5 (-115), signaling a possible further dip down to 51 on gameday. At DraftKings, the under is taking in 49% of bets and 51% of dollars. At Circa, the under is taking in 62% of bets and 59% of dollars.

Outdoor playoff unders are 6-0 (100%) this postseason and 40-29 (58%) with an 11% ROI since 2017. When the total is 47 or more (high total), the under is 3-1 (75%) this postseason and 31-18 (63%) with a 22% ROI since 2018. Once again, the weather could play a factor here. The forecast calls for mid teens with cloudy skies, 5-7 MPH winds and a chance for snow.

Updated Super Bowl Odds (via DraftKings)

Chiefs +225

Eagles +275

Ravens +500

Bills +550

Commanders +600

Rams +1500

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