Today marks Week 18 of the NFL regular season and bettors have 14 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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1 p.m. ET: Dallas Cowboys (-3, 49.5) at New York Giants
The Cowboys (7-8-1) just snapped a three-game losing skid with a 30-23 win over the Commanders but failed to cover as 8.5-point road favorites. Similarly, the Giants (3-13) just ended a nine-game losing streak with s 34-10 win over the Raiders, easily covering as 3-point road favorites.
This line opened with Dallas listed as high as a 5.5-point road favorite.
The public thinks this line is too short and 73% of spread bets at DraftKings are laying the points with the Cowboys.
However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen Dallas fall from -5.5 to -3. This signals sharp reverse line movement in favor of the Giants plus the points, as the line has moved in their direction despite being the unpopular play.
New York is one of the top “bet against the public” plays of the day as the Giants are only receiving 27% of spread bets at DraftKings.
At Circa, the Giants are taking in 42% of spread bets and a whopping 72% of spread dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian split in favor of the home dog.
New York has betting system value as a divisional dog, with the built in familiarity and rivalry aspect leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points.
Divisional dogs getting 3-points or less are 16-13 ATS (55%) with a 6% ROI this season and 105-85 ATS (55%) with a 7% ROI since 2020.
We’ve also seen some sharp action hit the under, dropping the total from 52.5 to 49.5.
At Circa, the under is taking in 33% of bets and 68% of dollars, a sharp contrarian split in favor of a lower scoring game from the wiseguys out in Vegas.
1 p.m. ET: New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5, 43.5)
The Saints (6-10) have won four straight and just outlasted the Titans 34-26, covering as 1.5-point road favorites. Similarly, the Falcons (7-9) have won three in a row just upset the Rams 27-24, winning outright as 7-point home dogs.
This line opened with Atlanta listed as a 3-point home favorite.
Early in the week, we saw the Falcons tick up from -3 to -3.5. However, since that time we’ve seen some sharp buyback hit the Saints, as New Orleans is being juiced up +3.5 (-115). This signals smart money liability on New Orleans plus the hook, with some books even inching back down to the key number of 3.
At DraftKings, the Saints are taking in 47% of spread bets are 60% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the road dog.
Road divisional dogs are 24-21 ATS (53%) with a 3% ROI this season and 211-168 ATS (56%) with a 7% ROI since 2019.
Short road dogs +6 or less are 52-36 ATS (59%) with a 13% ROI this season and 360-292 ATS (55%) with a 6.5% ROI since 2019.
The Saints enjoy a one-day rest advantage, as New Orleans played on Sunday while the Falcons played on Monday night and are now on a short week.
We’ve also seen the total tick up slightly from 43 to 43.5.
At DraftKings, the over is taking in 66% of bets and 82% of dollars, a heavy Pro and Joe split in favor of a higher scoring game.
8:20 p.m. ET: Baltimore Ravens (-3.5, 41.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers
The Ravens (8-8) have won two of their last three and just upset the Packers 41-24, winning outright as 2.5-point road dogs. On the other hand, the Steelers (9-7) just saw their three-game win streak come to an end, falling to the Browns 13-6 and losing outright as 3.5-point road favorites.
This line opened with Baltimore listed as a 3-point road favorite.
Early in the week, we saw the Ravens tick up from -3 to as high as -4.5. However, since that time we’ve seen nothing but sharp buyback on the inflated dog Steelers, dropping Pittsburgh back down from +4.5 to +3.5.
At DraftKings, the Steelers are receiving 58% of spread bets and 73% of spread dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of Pittsburgh plus the points.
Divisional dogs are 42-38 ATS (52%) with a 1% ROI this season and 300-255 ATS (54%) with a 4% ROI since 2020.
Dogs off a loss playing an opponent off a win, like the Steelers here, are 46-38 ATS (55%) with a 4.5% ROI this season.
Primetime dogs are 31-23 ATS (57%) with a 9% ROI this season and 172-149 ATS (54%) with a 3% ROI since 2020.
Mike Tomlin is 4-3 ATS (57%) with a 11% ROI as a dog this season and 67-37 ATS (64%) with a 25% ROI as a dog in his career. Tomlin is also 4-2 ATS (67%) with a 29% ROI off a loss this season and 63-46 ATS (58%) with a 13% ROI off a loss in his career.
Pros are also expecting a lower scoring game here, as the total has been bet down from 43 to 41.5.
At DraftKings, the under is taking 45% of bets and 80% of dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of the under.
Primetime unders are 30-27 (53%) with a 1% ROI this season and 131-98 (57%) with a 10% ROI since 2022.
