Today we have a loaded NFL Week 12 slate on tap with 12 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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1 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Steelers at Chicago Bears (-2.5, 47.5)
The Steelers (6-4) have won two of their last three and just crushed the Bengals 34-12, easily covering as 5.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Bears (7-3) have won three straight and just upset the Vikings 19-17, winning outright as 3-point road dogs.
This line opened with Chicago listed as low as a 1.5-point home favorite.
Sharps have jumped on the Bears laying short chalk at home, driving Chicago up from -1.5 to -2.5. Throughout the week, we’ve seen this line reach -3 briefly. On gameday, the Bears are being juiced up -2.5 (-115). Reading between the lines, all movement and liability looks to be on Chicago.
At DraftKings, the Bears are receiving 63% of spread bets and 76% of spread dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split indicating slight public support but also heavy smart money in the form of Pro and Joe bet split.
Many wiseguys have looked to protect themselves by targeting the Bears on the moneyline at -145.
Chicago has betting system value as a non-conference favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win.
Non-conference favorites are 37-17 straight up (69%) this season and 303-132 straight up (70%) with a 2% ROI since 2020. When both teams are coming off a win, as is the case here, the favorite is 16-8 straight up (67%) this season and 108-41 straight up (72%) with an 8% ROI since 2022.
John Hussey, the lead ref, is 59% ATS to the home team historically.
Sharps have also hit the over, raising the total from 45 to 47.5.
At DraftKings, the over is receiving 46% of bets but 81% of dollars. At Circa, the over is taking in 74% of bets and 97% of dollars. Both books are showing a notable split in favor of a higher scoring game.
Non-conference overs are 31-23 (57%) with a 9% ROI this season.
4:25 p.m. ET: Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-1.5, 40.5)
The Falcons (3-7) have lost five straight and just fell to the Panthers 30-27 in overtime, losing outright as 4-point home favorites. On the other hand, the Saints (2-8) just snapped a four-game losing streak with a 17-7 win over the Panthers, winning outright as 5.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Atlanta listed as high as a 3.5-point road favorite.
The public is happy to back the Falcons even with Kirk Cousins taking the place of the injured Michael Penix Jr.
However, despite 63% of spread bets taking Atlanta we’ve seen the line completely flip in favor of the Saints, steaming New Orleans from a 3.5-point home dog to a 1.5-point home favorite. Some shops even reached as high as Saints -2.5 during the week. In other words, we are seeing wiseguy “dog to favorite” reverse line movement in favor of the Saints.
At DraftKings, the Saints are only receiving 37% of spread bets but 57% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split and further evidence of pros “fading the trendy dog” Falcons and instead backing the unpopular home favorite.
The Saints enjoy a “rest vs tired” advantage, as they are coming off a bye while the Falcons just played the Panthers and lost in overtime.
Sharps have looked to mitigate some risk in the event of a close game by targeting New Orleans on the moneyline at -130.
At Circa, the Saints are receiving 42% of moneyline bets but a whopping 93% of moneyline dollars, a massive sharp split indicating heavy wiseguy action in Vegas banking on a straight up New Orleans victory.
Favorites off a bye are 245-101 straight up (71%) with a 3% ROI since 2004.
4:25 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Eagles (-3, 47.5) at Dallas Cowboys
The Eagles (8-2) have won four in a row and just held off the Lions 16-9, covering as 2.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Cowboys (4-5-1) just snapped a two-game losing streak with a 33-16 win over the Raiders, easily covering as 3.5-point road favorites.
This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a 4.5-point road favorite.
The public thinks the line is a bit short and 61% of spread bets are laying the points with the defending champion Eagles.
However, despite this public support we’ve seen Philadelphia fall from -4.5 to -3.
Why would oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for the public to cover when they’re already backing Philadelphia to begin with? Because respected smart money has sided with the Cowboys plus the points, triggering sharp reverse line movement in favor of the unpopular home dog.
At DraftKings, the Cowboys are taking in 39% of spread bets and 56% of spread dollars. At Circa, Dallas is receiving 27% of spread bets and a hefty 69% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of Dallas.
Divisional dogs, like the Cowboys here, are 328-285 ATS (54%) with a 3% ROI since 2019.
Divisional dogs with at least one full point of line movement in their direction are 58-43 ATS (57%) with an 11% ROI since 2020.
Pros have also hit the under, dropping the total from 50 to 47.5.
At DraftKings, the under is receiving 34% of bets and 69% of dollars. At Circa, the under is taking in 50% of bets and a whopping 87% of dollars.
