Today we have a loaded NFL Week 13 slate on tap with 11 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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1 p.m. ET: Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-3, 44.5)
The Texans (6-5) have won three in a row and just upset the Bills 23-19, winning outright as 4.5-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Colts (8-3) have lost two of their last three and just fell to the Chiefs 23-20 in overtime but managed to cover as 4.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Indianapolis listed as a 3.5-point home favorite.
The public is largely split down the middle and doesn’t know whether to take the points or lay them.
However, despite this 50/50 ticket split at DraftKings we’ve seen the Colts dip from -3.5 to -3.
In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even because, theoretically, the oddsmakers have balanced action and no need to adjust the price. So, based on the half-point line move we can infer that respected smart money has sided with the Texans plus the points.
At DraftKings, the Texans are receiving 47% of spread bets and 59% of spread dollars. At Circa, Houston is taking in 39% of spread bets and a whopping 91% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a notable “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of the road dog.
Houston has betting system value as a divisional dog, with the built in familiarity leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points.
Houston enjoys a 3-day “rest vs tired” advantage, having last played on November 20th while the Colts just played an overtime game on the road on November 23rd.
Sharps have also leaned under, dropping the total from 46.5 to 44.5.
At DraftKings, the under is taking in 53% of bets but 76% of dollars, a sharp bet split in favor of a lower scoring game.
Houston is 7-3-1 to the under this season, the 3rd best under team in the NFL.
1 p.m. ET: San Francisco 49ers (-5.5, 35.5) at Cleveland Browns
The 49ers (8-4) have won three of their last four and just held off the Panthers 20-9, covering as 7.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, the Browns (3-8) just snapped a three-game losing skid with a 24-10 win over the Raiders, winning outright as 3-point road dogs.
This line opened with San Francisco listed as a 6.5-point road favorite.
The public is leaning toward laying the points with the road chalk 49ers.
However, despite receiving 55% of spread bets at DraftKings we’ve seen San Francisco fall from -6.5 to -5.5, with some shops even touching as low as -4.5 briefly earlier in the week.
This signals some smart reverse line movement on Cleveland plus the points, as the line has moved in their favor despite being the unpopular play.
The Browns have correlative betting value as a dog in a super low total game (35.5), with the fewer amount of expected points scored making it harder for the favorite to cover.
Cleveland enjoys a one-day rest advantage, having last played on November 23rd while the 49ers last played on November 24th and are now on a short week.
The 49ers are also in a classic “fade” schedule spot as a West Coast team traveling cross country for an early 1 p.m. ET kickoff.
We’ve seen this total plummet from 39.5 to 35.5, with some shops even inching down to 35 on gameday.
At DraftKings, the under is taking in 34% of bets and 62% of dollars, a sharp contrarian discrepancy in favor of a lower scoring game.
Weather is major consideration here, as the forecast calls for mid 30s with 25 MPH winds and gusts up to 35 MPH, making this a “windy under” system match.
4:25 p.m. ET: Buffalo Bills (-3, 45.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers
The Bills (7-4) just fell to the Texans 23-19, losing outright as 4.5-point favorites. Meanwhile, the Steelers (6-5) just came up short against the Bears 31-28, pushing as 3-point road dogs.
This line opened with Buffalo listed as high as a 4.5-point road favorite.
The public thinks the line is a bit short and 70% of spread bets at DraftKings are laying the points with the Bills.
However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen Buffalo fall from -4.5 to -3.
Why would the oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for the public to cover when they’re already hammering Buffalo to begin with? Because respected sharp action has sided with Pittsburgh plus the points, triggering sharp reverse line movement in favor of the Steelers.
At DraftKings, the Steelers are receiving 30% of spread bets but 55% of spread dollars. At Circa, Pittsburgh is taking in 27% of spread bets and 48% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a wiseguy “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian split in favor of the home dog.
Mike Tomlin is 65-36 ATS (64%) as an underdog and 22-8 ATS (73%) as a home underdog, both of which are the best active marks of any head coach in the NFL.
Sharps have also leaned under, dropping the total from 46.5 to 45.5.
At DraftKings, the under is taking in 40% of bets but 85% of dollars, a notable sharp contrarian split in favor of a lower scoring game.
The forecast calls for mid 30s with 15 MPH winds and gusts up to 25 MPH, making this a “windy under” system match.
