Today we have a loaded NFL Week 7 slate on tap with 12 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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1 p.m. ET: Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns (-2.5, 34.5)
The Dolphins (1-5) just came up short against the Chargers 29-27 but managed to cover as 3.5-point home dogs. On the other hand, the Browns (1-5) just fell to the Steelers 23-9, failing to cover as 6.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Cleveland listed as a 2-point home favorite.
Sharps have quietly sided with the home chalk, pushing the Browns up from -2 to -2.5. In addition, much of the market is juicing up Cleveland -2.5 (-115), signaling further liability and a possible move up to -3.
At DraftKings, the Browns are receiving 57% of spread bets but 82% of spread dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split indicating slight public support but also heavy sharp action in Cleveland’s favor.
Those looking to follow the sharp Cleveland move but also mitigate some risk in the event of a close game could instead target the Browns on the moneyline at roughly -145.
At DraftKings, the Browns are receiving 51% of moneyline bets and 64% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Cleveland is taking in 44% of moneyline bets and a hefty 92% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of the Vegas pros backing Cleveland to earn a straight up victory.
Home favorites off a loss, like the Browns here, are 16-6 (73%) straight up with a 9% ROI this season.
Tua Tagovailoa is just 1-7 straight up in his last 8 road games.
Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 41.5 to 34.5.
At DraftKings, the under is taking in 50% of bets and 82% of dollars. At Circa, the under is receiving 67% of bets and 92% of dollars.
Weather is a major reason for this tanking total, as the forecast calls for low 60s with 15-20 MPH winds and possibly some rain.
4:05 p.m. ET: Indianapolis Colts at Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5, 48.5)
The Colts (5-1) just outlasted the Cardinals 31-27 but failed to cover as 8.5-point home favorites. Similarly, the Chargers (4-2) just fended off the Dolphins 29-27 but failed to cover as 3.5-point road favorites.
This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a 1-point home favorite.
The public thinks the wrong team is favored and 61% of spreads bets at DraftKings are backing the Colts, who have the better won-loss record.
However, despite Indianapolis receiving such lopsided support we’ve actually seen this line move further toward Los Angeles -1 to -2.5.
Why would the oddsmakers hand out a better price to the public when they’re already backing Indianapolis to begin with? Because respected smart money has gotten down on the unpopular home chalk, triggering sharp “fade the trendy dog” reverse line movement in favor of the Chargers.
At DraftKings, the Chargers are receiving 39% of spread bets and 53% of spread dollars. At Circa, Los Angeles is taking in 63% of spread bets but 95% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a massive “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet split in favor of the home chalk.
The Chargers have correlative betting value as a short favorite in a high total game (48.5), with the more expected points scored making it easier for the favorite to cover the number.
Those looking to mitigate some risk in the event of a close game could also elect to play Los Angeles on the moneyline at -130.
At DraftKings, the Chargers are receiving 37% of moneyline bets and 58% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Chargers are taking in 63% of moneyline bets and 87% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of desert smart money banking on a straight up victory for Los Angeles.
When both teams are coming off a win, as is the case here, the favorite is 98-38 (72%) straight up with an 8% ROI since 2022.
4:25 p.m. ET: Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys (-1.5, 54.5)
The Commanders (3-3) just fell to the Bears 25-24, losing outright as 5.5-point home favorites. Similarly, the Cowboys (2-3-1) just got clipped by the Panthers 30-27, losing outright as 3-point road favorites.
This line opened with Washington listed as a 2.5-point road favorite.
Sharps have gotten down hard on the Cowboys, flipping Dallas from a 2.5-point home dog to a 1.5-point home favorite. In other words, we are seeing wiseguy “dog to favorite” line movement in favor of Dallas at home.
At DraftKings, the Cowboys are taking in 56% of spread bets but 72% of spread dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy indicating a slight public lean but also heavy sharp money.
The Cowboys have correlative betting value as a short favorite in a high total game (54.5), with the more expected points scored making it easier for the favorite to cover.
Those looking to protect themselves in the event of a close game that may not cover the spread could instead elect to play Dallas on the moneyline at -125.
At DraftKings, the Cowboys are receiving 51% of moneyline bets and 71% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Dallas is receiving 71% of moneyline bets and 97% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of a Dallas straight up win.
When both teams are coming off a loss, as is the case here, the favorite is 13-4 (77%) straight up this season and 104-45 (70%) straight up with a 3% ROI since 2023.
Home favorites off a loss are 16-6 (73%) straight up with a 9% ROI this season.
The Cowboys enjoy a one-day rest advantage, having last played on Sunday while the Commanders played on Monday night and are now on a short week.
Dallas will welcome back star WR Ceedee Lamb while the Commanders will be without star WR Terry McLaurin.
