Today we have a loaded NFL Week 8 slate on tap with 11 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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1 p.m. ET: Buffalo Bills (-7.5, 47.5) at Carolina Panthers
The Bills (4-2) just fell to the Falcons 24-14, losing outright as 3.5-point road favorites. Meanwhile, the Panthers (4-3) just took down the Jets 13-6, winning outright as 1.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Buffalo listed as a 7.5-point road favorite.
The public isn’t scared off by the big spread and 80% of spread bets are laying the points with the Bills.
However, despite receiving such heavy support we’ve seen the Bills remain stagnant at -7.5. In fact, most of the market is juicing up Panthers +7.5 (-115) while a few other shops have even fallen down to Panthers +7.
This signals a sharp line freeze and some wiseguy reverse line movement in favor of Carolina, as the line has either stayed the same or moved toward the Panthers despite the public hammering Buffalo.
The Panthers are the top “bet against the public” play of the day as Carolina is only receiving 20% of spread bets at DraftKings.
At Circa, the Panthers are taking in 27% of spread bets but 42% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split and further evidence of the pros in Vegas taking the home dog plus the hook.
Big dogs getting 6.5-points or more are 17-13 ATS (57%) this season and 150-120 ATS (56%) with a 6% ROI since 2022. If the big dog +6.5 or more is at home, they improve to 46-27 ATS (63%) with a 20% ROI since 2022.
Andy Dalton is starting this game in place of the injured Bryce Young. Dalton is 46-39 ATS (54%) with a 6% ROI in his career as a dog.
Josh Allen is just 17-19 ATS (47%) as a favorite of 7-points or more in his career.
1 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5, 46.5) at New Orleans Saints
The Buccaneers (5-2) just got rolled by the Lions 24-9, failing to cover as 6-point road dogs. Similarly, the Saints (1-6) just came up short against the Bears 26-14, failing to cover as 3.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a 5.5-point road favorite.
The public expects the Buccaneers to get back on track and 79% of spread bets at DraftKings are laying the points with Tampa Bay.
However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen Tampa Bay fall from -5.5 to -3.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Saints, as the line has moved toward New Orleans despite the public pounding the Buccaneers. The movement toward New Orleans has been steady and consistent all week without any notable buyback on Tampa Bay.
At DraftKings, the Saints are receiving 21% of spread bets but 67% of spread dollars. At Circa, New Orleans is taking in 16% of spread bets but a whipping 80% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a massive “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian bet split in favor of the home dog.
Divisional dogs, like the Saints here, are 318-276 ATS (54%) with a 3% ROI since 2019. Divisional dogs receiving at least a full point of line movement in their favor are 56-40 ATS (58%) with a 13% ROI since 2020. When both teams are coming off a loss, as is the case here, the divisional dog is 82-57 ATS (59%) with a 13% ROI since 2020.
Conference home dogs getting 5-points or less are 104-79 ATS (57%) with a 10% ROI since 2018.
New Orleans enjoys a one-day rest advantage, as the Saints played on Sunday while the Bucs played on Monday night and are now on a short week.
8:20 p.m. ET: Green Bay Packers (-3, 45.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers
The Packers (4-1-1) just edged the Cardinals 27-23 but failed to cover as 7-point road favorites. On the other hand, the Steelers (4-2) just came up short against the Bengals 33-31, losing outright as 5.5-point road favorites.
This Sunday Night Football line opened with the Packers listed as a 3-point road favorite.
Sharps have gotten down on the primetime dog, as the Steelers are being juiced up +3 (-115 or -120) and some shops have inched down to +2.5. In other words, all movement and liability has been toward Pittsburgh.
At DraftKings, the Steelers are receiving 57% of spread bets and 62% of spread dollars. At Circa, Pittsburgh is taking in 53% of spread bets and 70% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a wiseguy “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of the home dog.
Primetime dogs are 15-8 ATS (65%) this season and 156-134 ATS (54%) with a 3% ROI since 2020. Dogs off a loss playing an opponent off a win are 18-14 ATS (56%) this season.
Mike Tomlin has also excelled in this spot. The Steelers head coach is 64-34 ATS (65%) with a 27% ROI as a dog and 60-44 ATS (58%) with a 13% ROI off a loss.
The Steelers enjoy a heightened “rest vs tired” advantage as Pittsburgh last played on Thursday while the Packers played on Sunday and are now playing their second straight road game.
Aaron Rodgers is 30-26 ATS (54%) as a dog in his career, including 7-3 ATS (70%) as a home dog.
Meanwhile, Jordan Love is just 10-13 ATS (44%) as a favorite, including 2-8 ATS (20%) as a road favorite.
