Today we kick off the first full Sunday of NFL action with 13 Week 1 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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1 p.m. ET: Baltimore Ravens (-3.5, 48) at Indianapolis Colts
The Ravens finished a disappointing 8-9 last season and oddsmakers expect a better showing this year as their win total sits at 11.5 with the under juiced to -140 at DraftKings. Meanwhile, the Colts also went 8-9 last season and oddsmakers expect a similar result this year as their win total rests at 8.5 with the under juiced to -140.
This line opened with Baltimore listed as a 3.5-point road favorite.
The public is leaning toward laying the points with the Ravens.
However, despite receiving 56% of spread bets at DraftKings we’ve seen the market show liability on the Colts plus the hook, as Indianapolis is getting juiced up +3.5 (-115 or -120) with several other shops inching down to the key number of +3.
At DraftKings, the Colts are receiving 44% of spread bets but 65% of spread dollars. At Circa, Indianapolis is taking in 60% of spread bets and 69% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet split in favor of the home dog plus the points.
Week 1 dogs, like the Colts here, are 88-70 ATS (56%) with an 8% ROI since 2016.
Lamar Jackson is 12-2 ATS (86%) as a regular season dog but just 45-47 ATS (49%) as a favorite, including 39-45 ATS (46%) as a favorite of 3-points or more.
1 p.m. ET: Buffalo Bills (-1.5, 44.5) at Houston Texans
The Bills finished 12-5 last season and oddsmakers expect another double-digit win campaign this year as their win total sits at 10.5 with the over juiced to -120. Similarly, the Texans also went 12-5 last year and this year’s win total rests at 9.5 with the over juiced to -146.
This line opened with Buffalo listed as a 1.5-point road favorite.
The public thinks this line is way too low and 67% of spread bets at DraftKings are laying the points with the Bills.
However, despite receiving such heavy support we’ve seen Buffalo remain stagnant at -1.5, with a few other shops inching down to -1.
Normally, if a team is getting two-thirds of tickets you would expect to see the line move in their favor (think -1.5 to -2 or -2.5). The fact that this line hasn’t budged and even dipped down slightly at some shops signals a sharp line freeze and some sneaky reverse line movement on the Texans plus the points.
Houston is one of the top “bet against the public” plays of the day as the Texans are only receiving one-third of tickets in one of the most heavily bet early games of the Sunday slate.
At Circa, Houston is receiving 46% of spread bets but a whopping 81% of spread dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian split in their favor from the wiseguys in the desert.
C.J. Stroud is 14-10 ATS (58%) as a dog in his regular season career, including 5-2 ATS (71%) at home.
Meanwhile, Josh Allen is 0-4 straight up against the Texans in Houston.
4:25 p.m. ET: Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (-1.5, 46)
The Packers went 9-7-1 last season and oddsmakers expect a slight improvement this year as their win total rests at 9.5 with the over juiced to -130. Meanwhile, the Vikings finished 9-8 last year and oddsmakers expect a similar showing this season as their win total sits at 8.5 with the over juiced to -130.
This line opened with Green Bay listed as a 1.5-point road favorite.
The public thinks the Packers are the better team and 59% of spread bets at DraftKings are backing Green Bay on the road.
However, despite the public supporting Green Bay we’ve seen this line completely flip in favor of Minnesota, pushing the Vikings from a 1.5-point home dog to a 1.5-point home favorite, with some shops even inching up to -2.
This signals sharp “dog to favorite” reverse line movement on Minnesota, as the line has flipped in their favor despite the public coming down in favor of the Packers.
At DraftKings, Minnesota is receiving 41% of spread bets and 61% of spread dollars. At Circa, the Vikings are taking in 49% of spread bets and 67% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of the unpopular home chalk.
Many pros have looked to protect themselves in the event of a close game by playing Minnesota on the moneyline (-125), as the Vikings are receiving 46% of moneyline bets and 56% of moneyline dollars at DraftKings.
