Week 1 NFL Betting Splits Systems Update:
NFL DK Betting Splits system #1: Over the past two seasons, when more than 68% of the handle has been on a road side of an ATS wager, this majority group boasts a 70-50 ATS (58.3%) record for +15 units and an ROI of +12.5%! There has been a lot of debate in recent years regarding the true value of home-field advantage, and it seems when bettors put less stock in it, they win.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BUFFALO, NY JETS, ARIZONA
NFL DK Betting Splits system #2: In NFL divisional games of 2022-25, DK majority handle bettors have been awful, as this majority group is just 214-253 ATS (45.8%) for -64.3 units. With the obvious generality that public bettors love favorites, it’s clear that they don’t value the stakes of these rivalry games and what they mean for the competitors.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA, MINNESOTA, DALLAS, DENVER
NFL DK Betting Splits system #3: Similar to #2 above, in that same time span, when the majority number of bets staked its side in an NFL divisional game, this majority group is just 214-256 ATS (45.5%) for -67.6 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA, GREEN BAY, DALLAS, DENVER
NFL DK Betting Splits system #4: In NFL non-conference games of 2023-25, DK majority handle groups were actually quite sharp, going 121-102 ATS (54.3%). This is obviously quite the opposite performance level of #2 above, and unfortunately for bettors, there are two fewer non-conference tilts than divisional contests for each team on the schedule every year.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY, PITTSBURGH, ARIZONA
NFL DK Betting Splits system #5: Since the start of the ’23 season, when the majority number of bets have backed a team in non-divisional conference tilts with smaller lines (6.5-point favorites or less), these groups have produced an outstanding 133-109 ATS (55%) record for +13.1 units. We will be tracking this one for the first time this season, as it has some sense to it, with bettors winning more when avoiding the larger spread games.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BUFFALO, BALTIMORE, NY JETS, CHICAGO, LAS VEGAS
NFL DK Betting Splits system #6: What is the definition of a “big public favorite” that savvy bettors should be willing to fade? Well, over the last three years when a “super-majority” handle of 77% or higher got behind an NFL favored team of 6.5 points or more, these groups have gone just 13-25 ATS (34.2%) for -14.5 units and an ROI of -38.2%. These are typically the heavy favorites that either look too obvious or are in a difficult situation that limits the motivation they are playing with.
System Match (FADE): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR JACKSONVILLE vs CLE (75% CURRENTLY) & DETROIT vs NO (76% CURRENTLY)
NFL DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle and number of bets have backed a team in an ATS wager in the higher-profile, non-Sunday afternoon games over the last three seasons, these majority groups are just 138-151 ATS (47.8%) and 137-149 ATS (47.9%), respectively. This set of games includes all the Wednesday, Thursday, Saturday, Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night contests. These performance numbers are both below the overall results, and with these being the more high-profile games, I would expect that to continue.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DALLAS, DENVER
DK Betting Splits system #9: The average NFL total in 2023 was 43.0. Over the last two years, it ballooned back up to 44.8. In games where the totals reached 46.5 or higher and oddsmakers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, majority number of bettors have gauged these games incredibly well the last three years, going 156-120 ATS (56.5%)!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – TB-CIN, NO-DET
UNDER – BAL-IND, CHI-CAR, ARI-LAC, GB-MIN, DAL-NYG
DK Betting Splits system #10: When 56% or more of the number of BETS has been on the Under in an NFL game total over the last three seasons, this majority group has been quite sharp, 62-54 ATS (53.5%). This number for a “super-majority” in the NFL is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): ATL-PIT, BAL-IND, CHI-CAR, ARI-LAC, GB-MIN
DK Betting Splits system #11: The magic mark for super majority on handle for betting Overs was 74% or higher, and this group performed miserably in ’23 & ‘24 with a record of 84-107 (43.9%) for -33.7 units. To me, this has been a long-standing belief, but when the Over looks too obvious, it usually loses.
System Match (PLAY UNDER INSTEAD): NO-DET
DK Betting Splits system #12: Call this one the Over trap, but when a super-majority (>=64%) of handle has been on the Over, but DraftKings moved the opening total lower throughout the week, this majority group has lost regularly, going just 107-121 (46.9%) for -26.1 units over the past three seasons. Almost as if they were trying to bait more people into taking the Over.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL INSTEAD): BUF-HOU, NYJ-TEN
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