Tonight we wrap up NFL Week 11 with a Monday Night Football showdown between the Houston Texans and Dallas Cowboys. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes. We will also be referencing new bet splits from Circa Sports, which prides itself on taking in sharp money from respected bettors.

 

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8:15 p.m. ET: Houston Texans (-7.5, 41) at Dallas Cowboys

The Texans (6-4) have dropped three of their last four games and just came up short against the Lions 26-23 but managed to cover as 4.5-point home dogs. Similarly, the Cowboys (3-6) have lost four straight games and just got crushed by the Eagles 34-6, failing to cover as 7-point home dogs.

The early opening line for this game was Houston -5.5 on the road. Based on the Cowboys’ lackluster performance in recent weeks we quickly saw this line adjust up to Texans -7. The public sees an easy blowout win and cover for the Texans and is happy to fade sinking Cowboys, who are starting Cooper Rush in place of the injured Dak Prescott. Currently 83% of spread bets are laying the points with Houston. This lopsided support drove the Texans up to -7.5. However, now that the hook is available we have seen some resistance and respected buyback on Cowboys +7.5, with several books falling back down to +7.

The Cowboys have notable inflated line contrarian value, as they are only receiving 17% of spread bets in a heavily bet primetime game. Big dogs +6.5 or more are 27-15 ATS (64%) with a 22% ROI this season. Dogs off a blowout loss of 20-points or more, like Dallas here, are 112-90 ATS (55%) with a 7% ROI since 2017. Primetime dogs getting 7-points or more are 2-0 ATS this season and 51-36 ATS (59%) with an 12% ROI since 2018. Dallas has correlative betting value as a touchdown dog in a low total game (41), with the fewer amount of expected points scored making it harder for the big favorite to cover. At Circa Sports, which caters to sharper bettors, the Cowboys are only receiving 29% of spread bets but a whopping 87% of spread dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian bet split in their favor. Those looking to bet against the public and back Dallas should shop around for the hook (+7.5).

In terms of the total, we’ve seen nothing but sharp action on the under. It opened at 43.5 and has fallen to 41 despite the public hammering the over (64% of bets). This signals sharp reverse line movement on the under, as the total has fallen despite only receiving 36% of bets. At Circa Sports, the under is receiving 50% of bets but 77% of dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. The Texans are 8-2 to the under this season, the best under team in the NFL. Those looking to go under would be wise to shop for the hook, as a few outlier shops are still hanging 41.5 (under -115), while most others are down to 41.

Player Prop to Consider

Dalton Schultz over 27.5 receiving yards: Schultz caught 3 passes for 66 yards last week against the Lions. He has gone over this number in three of his last four games and five of his last seven games. Schultz ranks third on the team in targets with 48, trailing only Tank Dell and the injured Stefon Diggs. Schultz has seen his target share rise since Diggs got hurt. Houston is expected to get leading WR Nico Collins back tonight, which could open up more favorable matchups for Schultz over the middle. This is also a “revenge” game for Schultz, who used to play for Dallas before joining Houston.

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