Happy Thanksgiving! Today we have a tripleheader of NFL Turkey Day action on tap. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for all three matchups using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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1 p.m. ET: Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (-3, 48.5)
The Packers (7-3-1) have won two straight and just brushed aside the Vikings 23-6, easily covering as 6.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Lions (7-4) have rotated wins and losses over their last six games and just outlasted the Giants 34-27 in overtime but failed to cover as 14-point home favorites.
This line opened with Detroit listed as a 3-point home favorite.
The public thinks this line is way too short and they’re rushing to the window to lay the points with the Lions at home.
However, despite receiving 84% of spread bets at DraftKings we’ve seen the Lions remain stagnant at -3. Detroit even dipped to -2.5 throughout the week. We never saw the line rise up to -3.5.
Normally, if a team is getting such heavy support you would expect to see them tick up from -3 to -3.5 or -4. The fact that the line has stayed right where it’s at, and even dipped down a half point at times, signals a sharp line freeze in favor of the Packers, as the line has either stayed the same or moved in Green Bay’s favor despite being such an unpopular play.
Green Bay is the top “bet against the public” play of the day, as the Packers are only receiving 16% of spread bets in a heavily bet, nationally televised game.
The Packers have additional betting system value as divisional dogs, with the built in familiarity leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points.
Divisional dogs are 330-286 ATS (54%) with a 4% ROI since 2019. Road divisional dogs getting 3-points or less are 65-50 ATS (57%) with a 9% ROI since 2019.
Ron Torbert, the lead ref, is 56% ATS to the road team historically.
In terms of the total, it opened at 48.5 and several shops are juicing up the under 48.5 (-115) and dipping down to 48, signaling some under liability.
At DraftKings, the under is taking in 35% of bets and 43% of dollars. At Circa, the under is receiving 56% of bets and 75% of dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” split in favor of a lower scoring game.
Divisional unders are 30-22 (58%) with an 11% ROI this season.
4:30 p.m. ET: Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5, 52.5) at Dallas Cowboys
The Chiefs (6-5) just snapped a two-game losing skid with a 23-20 overtime win over the Colts but failed to cover as 4.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, the Cowboys (5-5-1) have won two in a row and just upset the Eagles 24-21, winning outright as 3-point home dogs.
This line opened with Kansas City listed as a 3.5-point road favorite.
The public is largely split down the middle and doesn’t know whether to take the points or lay them.
However, despite this even ticket split at DraftKings we’ve seen the Cowboys get juiced up +3.5 (-115) with a few outlier books even touching +3 briefly during the week.
Reading between the lines, it appears as though all liability has been on the side of the Cowboys plus the hook.
At DraftKings, Dallas is receiving 48% of spread bets but 66% of spread dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split indicating public indecision but also respected sharp action in favor of the home dog.
The Cowboys have value as a “dog who can score” system match (29.1 PPG, 4th most in the NFL), thereby increasing the chances they can keep pace or backdoor cover.
In his regular season career, Patrick Mahomes is 9-3 ATS (75%) as a dog but just 51-56 ATS (48%) as a favorite, including just 39-49 ATS (44%) as a favorite laying 3.5-points or more and 16-22 ATS (42%) as a favorite laying 3.5-points or more on the road.
On the other hand, Dak Prescott is 7-5 ATS (58%) as a home dog and 11-8 ATS (58%) as a dog getting 3.5-points or more.
John Hussey, the lead ref is 59% ATS to the home team historically.
We’ve also seen the total tick up from 51 to 52.5.
At Circa, the over is taking in 59% of bet sand 70% of dollars, indicating sharp money out in Vegas backing a higher scoring game.
However, one thing to keep in mind is that when the total if 50 or more (high total), the under is 11-7 (61%) this season and 50-28 (64%) since 2022.
8:20 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-7.5, 51.5)
The Bengals (3-8) have dropped four straight and just fell to the Patriots 26-20 but managed to cover as 7.5-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Ravens (6-5) have won five in a row and just took down the Jets 23-10 but failed to cover as 14-point home favorites.
This line opened with Baltimore listed as high as a 10.5-point home favorite.
However, once news broke that Bengals QB Joe Burrow would return from his toe injury and get the start under center, we saw the line plummet from Ravens -10.5 to -7.5, with some shops even touch down to -7.
At DraftKings, the Ravens are taking in 37% of spread bets and 53% of spread dollars. At Circa, Baltimore is receiving 58% of spread bets and a whopping 92% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a wiseguy “low bets, higher dollars” split in favor of the home chalk.
While the splits favor Baltimore, the Bengals match several notable betting systems.
Divisional dogs are 330-286 ATS (54%) with a 4% ROI since 2019. Dogs off a loss playing an opponent off a win are 34-24 ATS (59%) with a 12% ROI this season.
Primetime dogs getting 6.5-points or more are 7-6 ATS (54%) with a 2% ROI this season and 32-23 ATS (58%) with an 11% ROI since 2022.
Joe Burrow is 19-11 ATS (63%) with a 21% ROI as a dog. Meanwhile, Lamar Jackson is just 19-21 ATS (48%) as a favorite of 7-points or more.
Craig Wrolstad, the lead ref, is 55% ATS to the road team historically.
In terms of the total, we’ve seen it rise from as low as 49.5 up to 52.5, at which point some sharp under buyback dropped it back down to 51.5. where it stands on gameday.
At DraftKings, the over is taking in 56% of bets and 83% of dollars. At Circa, the over is receiving 59% of bets and 74% of dollars. Both books are showing a wiseguy split in favor of a higher scoring game.
One thing to consider when betting the total is the weather. The forecast calls for mid 30s with 10 MPH winds and gusts up to 25 MPH.
Outdoor divisional unders are 22-14 (61%) with a 17% ROI this season and 321-266 (55%) with a 6% ROI since 2017.
Primetime unders are 24-16 (60%) with a 15% ROI this season and 214-152 (58%) with a 12% ROI since 2019.
