The first round of the NFL Playoffs ends tonight as the Minnesota Vikings face the Los Angeles Rams in a Monday Night Football Wild Card showdown. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.

 

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8 p.m. ET: Minnesota Vikings (-2.5, 47.5) vs Los Angeles Rams

The Vikings (14-3) are the 5-seed and just got crushed by the Lions 31-9 in Week 18, failing to cover as 3-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Rams (10-7) are the 4-seed and just fell to the Seahawks 30-25 in Week 18 but managed to cover as 7.5-point home dogs.

This line opened with Minnesota listed as a 2.5-point road favorite. Early in the week, we saw the Vikings fall from -2.5 to -1.5 or even -1 at some shops. However, once the venue was moved from Los Angeles to Arizona due to the California wildfires, we saw the Vikings creep back up to -2.5 where they now stand. Reading between the lines, it appears as though home-field advantage is worth about 1 to 1.5-points for the Rams. The next gameday move will be something to monitor for data-driven bettors. Will this creep up closer to 3, thereby signaling late Vikings action? Or dip down toward 2, which will indicate late money on the underdog Rams?

While the line has fluctuated throughout the week, one constant has remained: the public is all over the Vikings laying short chalk. Minnesota is receiving 68% of spread bets at DraftKings and 59% of spread bets at Circa. The Vikings are also getting a majority of bets and dollars to win the game straight up on the moneyline (-140). At DraftKings, the Vikings are taking in 59% of moneyline bets and 60% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Minnesota is receiving 43% of moneyline bets and 52% of moneyline dollars.

The Rams have notable “bet against the public” value, as they are only receiving roughly one-third of tickets in a heavily bet primetime game. Short playoff dogs getting 3-points or less are 2-0 ATS this postseason and 23-10 ATS (70%) with a 36% ROI since 2017. Wild Card dogs playing an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous season, like the Rams here, are 1-0 ATS this postseason and 15-1 ATS (94%) with an 83% ROI since 2017. Those looking to go contrarian and follow these systems but also wary of missing the key number of +3 could instead play the Rams in a Wong Teaser. By taking Los Angeles up from +2.5 to +8.5, value-driven sharps are able to pass through the top key numbers of 3 and 7.

While the Rams lost home-field advantage due to the site change, Los Angeles should enjoy a bit of a “rest vs tired” edge. In Week 18, the Vikings played all of their starters and lost a physical game against the Lions. Teams who played the Lions went 6-10 the following week this season. Meanwhile, the Rams rested a majority of their starters in Week 18 against the Seahawks, including QB Matthew Stafford, WRs Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp along with RB Kyren Williams.

We haven’t seen much movement in terms of the total, as it has remained relatively static at 47.5. This lack of movement is notable because the public is pounding the over (69% of bets at DraftKings), yet we haven’t seen it rise. Unders are 4-1 so far this Wild Card Weekend and are now 24-17 (59%) with a 13% ROI since 2017. When the total is 47 or more in a postseason game, the under is 2-0 this postseason and 30-17 (64%) with a 23% ROI since 2017. John Hussey, the lead ref, is 54% to the under historically.

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