Tuley: Monday Night Football Best Bet; Contest Corner updates; early NFL Week 18 picks

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Sunday NFL recaps, Monday Night Football Best Bet

Sunday was a thrilling day of sports betting action here in the Tuley’s Takes home office (as I stayed home to tend to my thumb injury suffered on New Year’s Eve) with NFL Week 17 and then looking ahead to Monday Night Football and Week 18.
Favorites went 10-4 straight-up on the day, but underdogs led 8-6 ATS as “the point spread is the great equalizer” and dogs continued to thrive in this parity-filled season even though the public perception out there is that there’s a lot of difference between the haves and have-nots.
We won with our Best Bet of the day on the Broncos +13 at the Chiefs as they stuck around all game before losing 27-24 and covering. That raised our record 40-24-2 ATS with our daily top play the last 66 days heading all the way back to late October.
We also won with the Saints +5.5 at the Eagles in a 20-10 outright upset in a play that we originally gave out on our regular Sunday night appearance on “The Greg Peterson Experience” (12:15 a.m. ET/9:15 p.m. PT, or 15 minutes into the archived version). We did lose with the Texans, who closed +3 vs. the Jaguars, to go 1-1 ATS with our advance plays given out on that show (and VSiN email updates), but we’re still 32-18 ATS (64%) since the start of the football season and 19-9 ATS (67.8%) since the start of November.
In other plays from these daily columns, we lost with the Panthers +3.5 at the Buccaneers (should have covered that, but Tom Brady led another late rally to not only win but also cover), but won with the Raiders +10 vs. the 49ers and hit our top 2-point, 6-point teaser play on Browns +8/Dolphins +8.5 and also have live teasers from Seahawks +7.5 and Steelers +8.5 to the Bengals +7.5 on Monday Night Football vs. the Bills. it was a winning NYE weekend with hopefully more to come.
Let’s get to the rest of our Sunday recaps, including a peek into Contest Corner (Circa Survivor has been as exciting to cover as the actual NFL games this season, but Sunday was anticlimactic as the 3 remaining entrants easily won with the Giants and Lions and advance to Week 17). Then, we’ll give our Monday Night Football Best Bet as well as early NFL Week 18 plays. We’re 4-0-1 ATS with our Bowl Best Bets, but don’t like any on Monday, at least not enough to put that record on the line. Our leans are on Purdue +15.5 vs. LSU and Penn State +1.5 as our leans have done pretty well, too, as I’m in contention in several bowl pools, but then I also offer up my early pick in the CFB Playoff Championship Game (also discussed on "The Greg Peterson Experience").

Sunday Recaps

NFL: Steelers rallied to beat Ravens 16-13 on Sunday Night Football to keep the Steelers’ playoff hopes alive and get coach Mike Tomlin to .500 at 8-8. The ViewFromVegas is they did it after closing as 1-point road underdogs (game stayed Under the low total of 35.5). Favorites went 10-4 SU on Sunday, but dogs led 8-6 ATS with 4 dogs covering in losses (Broncos, Raiders, Cardinals and Dolphins). Home teams went 9-5 SU and 7-7 ATS. Unders led 7-6-1 with the push in the Chargers’ 31-10 home win vs. Rams with a total of 41 points.

 

Top NFL Resources:

More NFL: On the season, faves lead 163-86-2 SU with 4 pick-’ems, but dogs improved to 133-111-7 ATS (54.5%). Home teams lead 137-110-2 SU with 6 neutral-site games and 123-120-6 ATS (50.6%). Unders lead 140-112-3 (55.6%) with primetime Unders improving to 33-19-1 (63.5%).

Even more NFL: Faves went 7-2 SU in the early game, but dogs actually led 5-4 ATS as Broncos (+12.5 in 27-24 loss at Chiefs), Cardinals (+6.5 in 20-10 loss at Falcons), Dolphins (+3 in 23-21 loss at Patriots) covered in SU losses. The upsets were by the Saints (+4.5 in 20-10 win at Eagles) and Browns (+1 in 24-10 win at Commanders). Home teams went 6-3 SU but road teams led 6-3 ATS with Jaguars (-3.5 in 31-3 rout at Texans) covering as lone road fave. Unders led 5-4. In the afternoon games, faves went 3-1 SU but only 2-2 ATS as Raiders (+10) covered in 37-34 OT loss vs. 49ers. The upset was by the Seahawks (+1.5 in 23-6 home win vs. Jets). Packers (-3.5) and Chargers (-6.5) easily covered in their wins. Home teams went 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS. Overs led 2-1-1 with the push in LAR-LAC (41).

NBA: Underdogs went 2-1 SU and ATS on Sunday with upsets by the Nuggets (+3.5 in 123-111 win vs. Celtics) and Wizards (+2.5 in 118-95 rout at Bucks). Grizzlies (-4) covered in 118-108 win vs. Kings. Home teams went 2-1 SU and ATS. Unders went 2-0-1 with push in BOS-DEN (234). 

More NBA: On the season, favorites lead 344-196 SU with 9 games closing pick-’em, but underdogs improved to 274-249-17 ATS (52.4%);. Home teams lead 335-214 SU and 285-248-16 ATS (53.5%). In totals wagering, Overs’ slim lead dipped to 279-263-7 (51.5%).

NHL: Faves went 4-1 Sunday with lone upset by the Rangers (+135 in 5-3 win at Panthers). Road teams went 3-2. Overs led 3-2. On the season, faves lead 338-214 with 16 PKs. Home teams’ lead dips to 295-269 with 4 neutral-site games. Unders’ slim lead dips to 276-269-23.

Contest Corner

Circa Survivor has 3 live entries heading into NFL Week 18 with the Giants and Lions both winning easily for BROWNA-1, JED-4 and THE ENEMY WITHIN-2 in the record $6.133 million pool. We’ll have their final plays in our "Circa contest update" story at VSiN.com on Saturday night.

Circa Sports Million Top 5 Most-Selected Teams are 2-2 so far in NFL Week 17 (42-38-4, 52.5%, on season) with wins on Buccaneers -3 (No. 1 picks are 12-5, 70.6%) and Steelers +2.5 but losses on Vikings +3.5 and Texans +4 with the No. 5 pick, Bengals +1 vs. the Bills, pending on Monday Night Football.

SuperContest Top 5 Most-Selected Teams are 2-2 so far in NFL Week 17 (45-38-1, 54.2%) with wins on Buccaneers -3 and Steelers +2.5 but losses on Texans +4.5 (No. 1 picks dipped to 7-10, 41.2%) and Vikings +3.5 with the No. 5 pick, Bengals +1 vs. the Bills, pending on Monday Night Football. 

Monday Night Football Best Bet

Bengals +7/Under 55.5 vs. Bills: The Monday nighter is the game everyone is talking about as it’s the only Week 17 matchup with both teams sporting winning records. The Bills (12-3) are trying to hold off the Chiefs for the AFC’s No. 1 seed and first-round bye, with the defending AFC champion Bengals (11-4) just a game behind as this game could have a huge impact on playoff seeding. After an 0-2 start, the Bengals are arguably the hottest team in the league at 11-2 SU and 12-1 ATS. The Bills, who have the league’s No. 2 offense and No. 7 defense, still let teams stick around a lot as they’re only 5-8 ATS in their last 13 games, and that includes covering as 7.5-point favorites in a 31-23 win vs. the Browns in Week 11 that a lot of people graded at -8 and a push. We believe the Bengals will be in this the whole game, so we’ll tease them up over a TD (it was Bills -1.5 earlier in the week, meaning we could tease up over a TD at +7.5; most books are down to 1, but some 1.5s have been available, so shop around). We had some teasers from Sunday to the Bengals, but if you don’t have those, I’d go with teasing the Under up to 55.5 as this should be a playoff atmosphere.

NFL Week 18 Best Bets

Lions +4.5 at Packers: The Packers earn an NFC wild-card berth with a win and everyone seems to be jumping on the bandwagon, but I’ll take the Lions, who have been the better team all season. While the Packers have made an impressive turnaround, the Lions were 1-6 before they beat the Packers 15-9 in Week 9. We love getting points with a team that already showed they can beat the other team. Granted, the Packers are playing better since then, but so are the Lions and we also cash if this comes down to a field goal.
Raiders +10 vs. Chiefs: In another rematch, the Chiefs only beat the Raiders 30-29  in Week 5. The Chiefs tend to let lesser teams stick around, including only beating the far inferior Broncos 27-24 on Sunday. Meanwhile the Raiders covered as 10-point home dogs on Sunday in a 37-34 OT loss to the 49ers, who have a far better defense than the Chiefs. Double-digit home underdogs are 5-1 ATS on the season, so I have to jump on this.

CFB Championship Game Best Bet

TCU +13.5 vs. Georgia: TCU has risen to the occasion all season and has showed it can compete with anyone, including knocking off Michigan in the semifinals. Georgia is still the best team in college football, but this line is set way too high. As we mentioned on "The Greg Peterson Experience," we expect this to be like a Super Bowl line where bettors take the points with the underdog while chalk bettors wait to get a depressed money line on the favorite. Some books are already at -13, so grab the best price you can.