Tuley: Tuesday Best Bets, Contest Corner, early NFL Week 17 picks


Monday was a day of recovery in the Tuley’s Takes home office after going full-tilt all weekend (no time off for yours truly except for a few hours to open presents and eat a big Christmas dinner with the family) and leading up to Monday Night Football to wrap up the NFL Week 16 schedule.
We recap MNF and its impact on Circa Survivor in a separate story on VSiN.com, though we have our regular condensed recaps below.
Personally, we lost on the Colts +4.5 in their 20-3 loss to the Chargers to see our daily Best Bets drop to 37-21-2 ATS (63.8%) with our daily top play the last 60 days.
Our plays that we give out each Sunday night on “The Greg Peterson Experience” have been even stronger, but the Colts’ misfire also dropped those to 31-17 ATS (64.6%) since the start of the football season and 18-8 ATS (69.2%) since the start of November.
Let’s get to our usual daily recaps of Monday’s betting action, including Contest Corner with Circa Survivor as well as updated leaderboards in Circa Sports Million and the Westgate SuperContest, and then give my Best Bets for Tuesday as well as our early NFL Week 17 plays from “The Greg Peterson Experience.”

Monday Recaps

NFL: Chargers beat Colts 20-3 on Monday Night Football to wrap up NFL Week 16, covering as 3.5-point road favorites (game stayed way Under betting total of 44.5 points). Faves went 10-6 SU on holiday weekend but split 8-8 ATS. Home/road teams split 8-8 SU and ATS. Unders led 10-6 and primetime Unders swept 4-0 (Thursday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday nights).


Top NFL Resources:

More NFL: On the season, faves lead 152-82-2 SU with 4 pick-’ems while dogs still lead 125-104-7 ATS (54.6%). Home teams dipped to 128-104-2 SU with 6 neutral-site games and 116-112-6 ATS (50.9%). Unders improved to 132-106-2 (55.5%) with primetime Unders 31-19-1 (62%).

CFB: New Mexico State beat Bowling Green State 24-19 in Quick Lane Bowl. NMSU did it as 3-point underdog (stayed Under betting total of 50.5 points). Overall in bowl season, faves dropped to 10-8 SU while dogs improved to 11-7 ATS. Unders improved to 10-7-1.

NBA: Faves went 4-3 SU and ATS on Monday with the upsets by the Rockets (+7 in 133-118 win at Bulls), Spurs (+4.5 in 126-122 win vs. Jazz) and Nets (+2 in 125-117 win at Cavaliers). The Clippers, Heat, Pelicans and Blazers covered as chalk; the Clippers’ cover as 5.5-point road faves was especially notable as they trailed by 14 with 3:34 left in regulation and rallied to force OT and then won 142-131 to deal Pistons backs a terrible #BadBeat. Home teams also went 4-3 SU and ATS. Overs led 5-2.

More NBA: On the season, faves lead 318-177 SU with 9 games closing pick-’em, but dogs still lead 248-232-15 ATS (51.7%). Home teams lead 306-198 SU and 258-231-15 ATS (52.8%). In totals wagering, Overs continued to improve their slim lead to 256-242-6 (51.4%).

Contest Corner

Circa Survivor still has 3 live entries as THE ENEMY WITHIN-2 won with the Chargers on Monday Night Football to join BROWNA-1 and JED-4 in advancing to next week. Maddog-2 was only player eliminated (Dolphins) in NFL Week 16b/"Christmas Week" after being 46 seconds from winning it all on Saturday night. JED-4 started with the maximum 6 entries. THE ENEMY WITHIN-2 started with just 2 (and both were alive before last Thursday’s last on the Jets). BROWNA-1 is alive with their lone entry.

Enut34-1 took the Circa Sports Million lead by going 4-1 in NFL Week 16 to improve to 55-23-2 (70.5%) and bypass KING BRUTUS-1, who went 2-3, with 2 weeks (10 picks) to go. $1 million goes to the champion and $500,000 for 2nd place while they pay the Top 100.

SA247LLC took SuperContest lead at 55-24-1 (69.6%) by going 3-2 in NFL Week 16 even though their win percentage dropped, but broke tie with HEINEKEN 21, who went 2-3. In SuperContest Gold, BIGLIB went 4-1 to move into a tie at 52.5 points with longtime leader JORD20, who went 2-3.

Tuesday Best Bets

Rockets +14.5 at Celtics: This is a mini-swagger play as the Rockets snapped a 5-game losing streak (we usually require a 6-game streak) with a 133-118 win at the Bulls last night as 7-point underdogs and now they get more than TDs at the Celtics. Granted, the Rockets are sub-.500 at 5-6 ATS as double-digit dogs, but did cover as 7-point dogs vs. the Mavericks last Friday before the upset of the Bulls.

Blackhawks +1.5 +130 at Hurricanes: We have a swagger play and an anti-swagger play in the NHL on Tuesday night. The swagger play is on the Blackhawks, who snapped an 8-game losing last Friday. There’s several reasons why I chose the NBA play over this as my Best Bet of the day. First of all, the Blackhawks beat the Blue Jackets, who are on a 6-game losing streak of their own, so not that impressive of a win. Second, I’m not as thrilled with the 4-day layoff for the holiday weekend. Third, the Hurricanes are on an 8-game winning streak and hard to fade, so that’s why we’re taking the puck line at plus-money. The anti-swagger play is Jets +100 vs. the Wild after the Wild had a 6-game winning streak snapped last Thursday.

Early NFL Week 17 picks

Texans +4.5 vs. Jaguars: The Jaguars are in the unfamiliar chalk role after so much success as underdogs. Besides, the Texans nearly beat the Cowboys and Chiefs before upsetting the Titans on Saturday. They would love to play spoiler against the AFC South rivals.

Saints +6.5 at Eagles: The Eagles lost 40-34 to the Cowboys as they’re trying to clinch the NFC’s No. 1 seed and first-round bye without Jalen Hurts, but now face a tough test against a New Orleans team trying to steal the NFC South. The Saints defense’ fares better against pocket passers like Gardner Minshew and will continue to try to grind out wins with their QB-by-committee.