Tuley: Tuesday NHL Best Bets, early NFL play


Tuesday Best Bets, Monday recaps

Monday was mostly spent dealing with a failing catalytic converter on the Tuley family minivan (and past the extended warranty, of course), and it ended worse as we had the Buccaneers +3 as well as losing teasers in their 31-14 loss to the Cowboys.
It was still a winning Super Wild Card Weekend for yours truly (and hopefully our followers), though we were really hoping to top it off with those teasers from the earlier games with the Jaguars, Giants and Bengals.
But you can’t win ’em all, though we’re still proud of our 34-21 ATS (61.8%) record this football season with our Sunday night plays on VSiN’s “The Greg Peterson Experience” and our RUSH record of 21-12 (63.6%) since the start of November.
At least we salvaged the night as we hit our top NHL First-Period Over 1.5 parlay with the Ducks-Penguins 1P Over 1.5 -165/Flames-Predators 1P Over 1.5 -145 paying +171. Note: both first periods landed on 2 goals, so again it’s important to shop around for the 1.5s. It’s a short sample, but we’re now 2-1 with these 1P parlays (5-1 in the individual games) and +2.26 units.
Let’s recap the rest of Monday’s (full-game) action and then give out Tuesday Best Bets, as we’ll stay on the ice. I also update my one early NFL divisional play. We’ll break down all four games in Wednesday’s column.

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Monday Recaps

NFL: Cowboys routed Buccaneers 31-14 to cover as 2.5-point road favorites and wrap up Super Wild Card Weekend (stayed just Under betting total of 45.5 points as 1st Under of playoffs). Faves went 4-2 SU in the round, but dogs led 4-2 ATS. Home teams went 4-2 SU, but road teams led 4-2 ATS; Overs 5-1. 

NBA: Faves went 7-2 SU and ATS on Monday with the upsets by the Jazz (+4 in 126-125 win at Timberwolves) and Raptors (+1.5 in 123-121 OT win at Knicks). Home teams went 5-4 SU and ATS. Overs dominated at 8-1.

More NBA: On the season, favorites lead 423-232 SU with nine games closing pick-’em while underdogs still lead 329-308-18 ATS (51.6%). Home teams lead 399-265 SU and 342-306-17 ATS (52.8%). In totals wagering, Overs’ lead improved to 346-309-9 (52.8%).

CBB: No. 3 Purdue beat Michigan State 64-63 but didn’t cover as a 4-point road favorite. No. 17 Miami-Fla. beat Syracuse 82-78, but didn’t cover as a 7.5-point home fave. No. 18 College of Charleston routed William & Mary 82-54 and covered as a 16.5-point home fave.

NHL: Faves went 7-3 with Capitals-Islanders closing pick-’em. The upsets were by the Predators (+120 vs. Flames), Stars (-105 at Golden Knights) and Blues (-105 vs. Senators). Road teams went 6-5. Unders 6-4-1. On the season, faves 400-258 with 19 PKs. Home teams 344-322 with 4 neutral-site games. Over/Unders dropped back to .500 at 321-321-28.

Tuesday NHL Best Bets

Ducks-Flyers 1P Over -140/Kraken-Oilers 1P Over -180 (+167 payoff): If I just had to pick one 1P Over play on Tuesday and had to lay the price, it would be Ducks-Flyers as the Ducks have gone Over 1.5 in six straight first periods (Flyers have four straight) and are 12-3 (80%) in their last 15 as well as tied for tops in the lead at 32-11 (74.4%) – all stats from @PSUOtto on Twitter. Flyers are No. 5 in the league at 26-16 (61.9%) for a combined 58-27 (68.2%). Looking for a game to add to the parlay, Kraken and Oilers are a combined 50-37 (57.5%) with 1P Overs.

Oilers -1.5 +145 vs. Kraken: This is an anti-swagger play against the Kraken, who just had their 8-game winning streak snapped on Monday night. I was a little surprised that the Oilers opened around -160 as we usually get plus-money on a team coming off a long winning streak. So, we’ll turn the Oilers into a dog and lay the puck line at a price.

Early NFL Divisional Best Bet

Bengals +4.5 at Bills: We gave this out on Sunday night after missing the +5 opener at some books, but it’s now back to 5 at the majority of books. Bengals are live dogs in this game, which should be closer to pick-’em. They have injuries on the offensive line, but they’ve worked around that problem before. Besides, this is just as much of a bet against the Bills, who we faded successfully again with the Dolphins as they continually let teams stick around.