Tuesday NHL Best Bets, Monday recaps
Monday was mostly spent reflecting on what a great Super Bowl we had on Sunday, including writing a story for the VSiN.com website on how the Nevada handle was down from last year’s record.
The sportsbooks’ win and hold percentage were also down from previous years as bettors had a lot of success in prop bets, helped by the high-scoring game as the masses love to bet Over on their favorite players’ individual stats as well as taking shots with some longer-priced props. Check out our Sunday night recap if you missed it as we attempted to tell the story of the Chiefs’ 38-35 victory over the Eagles through 10 interesting prop bets that cashed.
As for our Best Bet on Monday, we won with Flames-Senators 1P Over 1.5 -150/Red Wings-Canucks 1P Over 1.5 -175 as the parlay paid +162 with both games ending the opening 20 minutes in 1-1 ties. That’ll work.
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Let’s recap the rest of Monday’s (full-game) action and look for more Best Bets on Tuesday, plus our early Super Bowl LVIII futures that we gave out after Sunday’s game on “The Greg Peterson Experience.”
Monday Recaps
CBB: Texas Tech upset No. 6 Texas 74-67 as 4-point home underdog and +155 on the money line. No. 9 Baylor beat West Virginia 79-67 and covered as 7-point home fave. No. 15 Miami-Fla. beat North Carolina 80-72, but it was an upset as Hurricanes were 6-point road dogs.
NBA: Favorites/underdogs split 5-5 SU Monday with Jazz-Pacers closing pick-’em, but underdogs led 6-4 ATS with the Spurs (+16) covering in 117-109 loss at Cavaliers. The biggest upsets were by the Timberwolves (+5.5 at Mavericks), Hornets (+5.5 vs. Hawks) and Magic (+4.5 at Bulls). Home teams went 6-5 SU but road teams led 6-5 ATS. Overs 7-4.
More NBA: On the season, favorites lead 554-300 SU with 12 games closing pick-’em, but underdogs lead 429-404-21 ATS (51.5%). Home teams lead 514-352 SU and 445-402-19 ATS (52.5%). In totals wagering, Overs improved slim lead to 437-415-14 (51.3%).
NHL: Underdogs went 3-1 on Monday with Panthers-Wild closing pick-’em. The upsets were by the Coyotes (+196 in 4-2 win at Predators), Senators (+143 in 4-3 OT win vs. Flames) and Red Wings (+100 in 6-1 rout at Canucks). Road teams went 3-2. Overs went 3-1-1 with push in AZ-NAS (6).
Tuesday’s NHL Best Bets
Capitals +135 vs. Hurricanes: We don’t have any 1P Over plays on Tuesday as none of our preferred teams are in action. In fact, there are so many teams on the lower end of the 1P Over standings (via @PSUOtto on Twitter) that we’re predicting more 1P Under 1.5s in Tuesday’s nine NHL games, though those teams aren’t hitting at high enough rates to get us to go with 1P Unders for a day. This is actually an anti-swagger play against the Hurricanes, which just had their 7-game winning streak snapped on Saturday vs. the Rangers.
Blues +100 vs. Panthers: This is a mini-swagger play on the Blues, who just snapped their 5-game losing streak against the Coyotes on Saturday (we usually require a 6-game streak before considering these plays), plus we like the price on the Capitals better.
Super Bowl LVIII futures
Bengals 10-1: I usually look for bigger odds in my early Super Bowl futures, but the Bengals were right there with the Chiefs after making the Big Game last year, so we don’t expect them to be offered at much higher odds.
Vikings 40-1: This was the price at the Westgate and Circa on Sunday night (45-1 at DraftKings in states where they’re legal). Their offense matches with anyone and we have to assume they’ll try to improve on the defensive side. We like their chances better than a lot of teams listing in the 20-1 and 30-1 range.
