Tuley’s Takes on AFC Over/Under Season Win Totals:

We’re just a week from the start of the NFL regular season here in the Tuley’s Takes home office in North Las Vegas (and everywhere football fans are), so it’s time to give my annual breakdown of the Over/Under season win total, starting with the AFC.

During VSiN 1.0, Brent Musburger told me he loved the way I attacked the season win totals with my patent-pending W/L/T and MLE approach.

 

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What are those, newbies will ask?

W/L/T (Win/Loss/Tie): When most people handicap Over/Under win totals, they look at a team’s schedule and go “that’s a win,” “that’s a loss,” “they’ll split those games,” etc. Well, this is sort of like that, but it is the number of times each team is favored (“W”) or an underdog (“L”) or listed at pick-’em (“T”) on the DraftKings Week 1-18 lines.

MLE (Money Line Estimate): This is also derived from the DraftKings Week 1-18 lines. Since each game isn’t an automatic Win or Loss, we convert the projected point spread to a money line and the percentage of winning each game outright. For instance, a pick’em would be .500 for both teams. We give a 7-point favorite 0.752 of a win instead of 1.0. Conversely, a 7-point underdog would get 0.248. A 3-point favorite is worth 0.594, while a 3-point dog is .406. We do this for every game. We add all the percentages to estimate the total number of expected wins. Note, other books might have slightly different lines (though most have been bet into place after several months), but DK is a pretty good representative of the overall market.

You’ll note my analysis will be bereft of any mention of players/coaches, rivalry games, tough travel of scheduling spots or games with added motivation or “look-ahead” games, etc. This is because I believe that all that has been baked into the lines by the oddsmakers, the bookmakers, the wise guys and the general betting public. Everyone has had their input and these lines are pretty solid heading into the regular season.

So, we’ll go through each team’s season win totals, using the numbers at Circa Sports (which offers a “market” number and then alternate totals that are one game higher and one game lower with the adjusted money lines attached) and I’ll give my Tuley’s Take on the best way to bet each team and denote my Best Bets with an asterisk(*).

AFC East

New York Jets
2024 O/U season win total: 9.5 (Over -130/Under +110)
W/L/T: 14-3; MLE: 10.082
The Money Line Estimate puts us on the Over the 9.5 total at 10.082, but what really makes this play appealing is that the Jets are favored in a whopping 14 games with just three as underdogs: (+4 at San Francisco in the Week 1 opener, +2 at Miami in Week 14 and +2.5 at Buffalo in Week 17). If their season goes according to form, they might not be a dog after Week 1, even if they open with a loss.
Tuley’s Take: Over 9.5 -130 for grading purposes here (though personally betting Over 10.5 +160* on the high option at Circa) 

Buffalo Bills
2024 O/U season win total: 9.5 (Over -145/Under +125)
W/L/T: 9-8; MLE: 9.588
The MLE is 9.588 but the W/L/T is just 9, so the lean here is to the Under at plus-money. Circa’s middle “market” number is actually 10.5 with the Under favored at -160 and the Over at +140, but if you’re thinking the Under is the right side and looking to bet it, I’d advise taking a stand and getting the plus-money at the lower total.
Tuley’s Take: Under 9.5 +125* 

Miami Dolphins
2024 O/U season win total: 9.5 (Over -135/Under +115)
W/L/T: 10-7; MLE: 9.460
You’re going to see that a lot of these will be splitting hairs as to whether there’s an edge or not (hey, and it’s OK to “pass” as followers of my “dog-or-pass approach” have known for years). This is a lean to the Over as the MLE is right around the number (ever so slightly below) but the W/L/T is solidly over the 9.5 at 10 game in which Miami is favored.
Tuley’s Take: Over 9.5 -135 

New England Patriots
2024 O/U season win total: 4.5 (Over -130/Under +110)
W/L/T: 0-17; MLE: 5.226
Oh, how the mighty have fallen. That being said, after seeing the MLE add up to 5.226, my first thought was that the total has been adjusted too low with most people calling the Pats the worst team in the league. However, the W/L/T is 0-17 as they’re not projected to be favored in a single game, so I have to pass.
Tuley’s Take: Over 4.5 -130 (for those scoring at home, but no bet recommended) 

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens
2024 O/U season win total: 10.5 (Over -105/Under -115)
W/L/T: 15-2; MLE: 10.671
A lot of people are high on the Ravens entering this season. If anything, the Over/Under of 10.5 wins looks cheap and is only not higher because of the competitive division as the Ravens will probably have to hold off both the Bengals and Browns to win the division. The MLE of 10.671 is just Over the total, plus the Ravens are projected to be favorites in 15 games, so Over is the play at low juice.
Tuley’s Take: Over 10.5 -105* 

Cincinnati Bengals
2024 O/U season win total: 10.5 (Over -105/Under -115)
W/L/T: 14-3; MLE: 10.448
Ditto for the Bengals as hopes are also high, and with very similar Tuley Stats of 10.448 MLE and 14-3 W/L/T. I’m not crazy about betting Overs on two teams in the same division, but that’s what the numbers say.
Tuley’s Take: Over 10.5 -105* 

Cleveland Browns
2024 O/U season win total: 8.5 (Over -145/Under +125)
W/L/T: 10-7; MLE: 9.152
The numbers also leaned to an Over on a third team in the AFC North with an MLE of 9.152 and the Browns favored in 10 games; however, I’ll pass on the juice at -145 as this looks like a 9-8 team (note: the “high” total of 9.5 is shaded to -160 on the Under) and a notch below the Ravens and Bengals.
Tuley’s Take: Over 8.5 -145 (but just for grading purposes) 

Pittsburgh Steelers
2024 O/U season win total: 8.5 (Over +130/Under -160)
W/L/T: 5-12; MLE: 8.174
I wrote in the intro that I wasn’t going to mention players/coaches, but gonna break my own rule here. We all know Mike Tomlin hasn’t had a Steelers team finish below .500, so that’s obviously why this O/U is set so high even though most people see Pittsburgh as on a downward trend, so the Under is clearly the sharp side with the Steelers only projected to be favored in five games. I almost want to be contrarian and go Over 8.5 and put faith in Tomlin, but the MLE of 8.174 is still Under 8.5 (and certainly not gonna lay -165 on the alternate “low” total of 7.5 at Circa)..
Tuley’s Take: Under 8.5 -160 (again, for grading but no bet) 

AFC South

Houston Texans
2024 O/U season win total: 9.5 (Over -145/Under +125)
W/L/T: 11-6; MLE: 9.341
OK, kinda breaking another rule here as I’m just supposed to be objective and let the numbers speak for themselves, but I’m high on the Texans this season (I was on them last year before everyone joined me on the bandwagon) as VSiN subscribers should know from the “updated” NFL Betting Guide that just came out as well as my “early takes” column after the Super Bowl in February when I made the Texans my value play at 22-1. Their Over/Under is set at 9.5, with the MLE falling just short at 9.341, but the W/L/T has them projected to be favored in 11 games. I’ll pass here and stick with the other futures.
Tuley’s Take: Over 9.5 -145

Jacksonville Jaguars
2024 O/U season win total: 8.5 (Over +100/Under -120)
W/L/T: 9-8; MLE: 8.340
This looks like a coin-flip all around with Jacksonville’s Over/Under set at 8.5 (with the Under favored at just -120) and the MLE right in the neighborhood at 8.340 for a slight lean to the Under but the W/L/T going Over at 9-8. Hard pass.
Tuley’s Take: Over 8.5 +100 (true coin flip)

Indianapolis Colts
2024 O/U season win total: 8.5 (Over +115/Under -135)
W/L/T: 8-9; MLE: 8.267
The Colts appear to be a cut below the Texans and Jaguars heading into the season (though there is upside for those who do like the Over), and the Tuley Stats agree with the former, with a total of 8.5, an MLE of 8.267, and a W/L/T of 8-9 both falling short. But it’s not worth laying the juice.
Tuley’s Take: Under 8.5 -135 

Tennessee Titans
2024 O/U season win total: 6.5 (Over +120/Under -140)
W/L/T: 1-16; MLE: 6.298
While the Colts show some promise, the Titans are heading in the opposite direction, and the Tuley Stats also agree with that as their total is 6.5, with the MLE at 6.298 and the Titans only projected to be favored in just one game all season (-3 at home vs. the lowly Patriots in Week 9).
Tuley’s Take: Under 6.5 -140 

AFC West

Kansas City Chiefs
2024 O/U season win total: 11.5 (Over -115/Under -105)
W/L/T: 16-1; MLE: 11.485
I wanted to bet the Under here. As regular readers know, I often fade the Chiefs during the regular season as they tend to let teams stick around (they also often end up winning, but we’re also to cash tickets on dogs that cover the inflated spreads on the popular Chiefs). However, the MLE comes in right at the O/U of 11.5, and the Chiefs are expected to be favored in all but one game (+1 at San Francisco in Week 7), and we wouldn’t be surprised if they go off as a short road chalk even if the 49ers playing well early in the season. So, we’ll pass here and look to bet the individual games again when we feel we’re getting enough points.
Tuley’s Take: Under 11.5 -105 

Los Angeles Chargers
2024 O/U season win total: 8.5 (Over -145/Under +125)
W/L/T: 9-8; MLE: 8.711
The Over is pretty heavily favored here, and with good reason, as the MLE comes in at 8.711, and the Chargers are projected to be favored in nine games. However, it’s not enough of an edge to lay that much juice.
Tuley’s Take: Over 8.5 -145 

Las Vegas Raiders
2024 O/U season win total: 6.5 (Over -140/Under +120)
W/L/T: 2-15; MLE: 6.910
We have conflicting stats from the home office on the local Vegas team, though I’m more of a Golden Knights fan since they were “born” here as an NHL expansion team and still cheer as a fan more for the Bears – and, of course, Cubs – than for the nomadic Raiders or the soon-to-be-here A’s. The Raiders’ total is set at 6.5, shaded to the Over at -140 with an MLE in line with that at 6.910, but only projected to be favored in just two games all season (-3 vs. Carolina in Week 3 and -3 vs. Denver in Week 12). The W/L/T is more convincing and a plus-price, so let’s root, root, root against the home team with an Under play.
Tuley’s Take: Under 6.5 +120*

Denver Broncos
2024 O/U season win total: 5.5 (Over -160/Under +140)
W/L/T: 2-15; MLE: 5.897
We get similar Tuley Stats on the Broncos with their total set at 5.5 and going slightly Over with an MLE of 5.897 but again just favored in two games (-1 vs. Las Vegas in Week 5 and -2.5 vs. Carolina in Week 6). With the Chiefs and Chargers having potential to sweep both these teams, let’s grab another AFC Under at plus-money..
Tuley’s Take: Under 5.5 +140* 

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