Tuley’s Takes – NFL Week 5:
We’re riding high in the Tuley’s Takes home office after a great NFL Week 4, but certainly trying to stay level-headed and not get overconfident heading into Week 5.
Obviously, we all love to win, but I’ve long said it’s important to stay objective and, in our case, continue to follow our “dog or pass” mantra without trying to pick every dog on board when it all looks so easy. We’ll still be selective this week even though, to borrow a baseball phrase, “the ball is looking like a beach ball right now.”
I went 4-0-1 ATS with my NFL Best Bets in Week 4 (after going 3-1 ATS in CFB on Saturday; throw in the Metallica concert at the Sphere on Saturday night and my weekend was, as Larry David would say, pretty pretty good!) with wins on the Browns +3 in their 27-24 home upset vs. the Steelers on Thursday Night Football, Patriots +6.5 in their 29-26 road upset at the Bills, Titans +11.5 in their 24-18 loss at the Ravens and Raiders +4.5 in their 30-27 home loss vs. the Chiefs. The push was on the Chargers +7 in their 30-23 loss at the Seahawks. I also went 4-0-1 on my main solo @ViewFromVegas in the Circa Sports Million, and fortunately started the 3-week in-season contest on Weeks 4-6 with a perfect 5-0 in the Westgate/Caesars SuperContest at the Westgate, as they had Chargers +7.5 on the contest card.
My Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio also went 3-1 with the Cowboys +8.5, Jaguars +8.5 and Falcons +8.5 all winning outright (so we actually didn’t need the added points), and the lone loser on the Broncos +8.5, and Will Lutz missed a FG late that would have won that teaser, too. But you can’t win ‘em all – though we try, right?
Of course, I’m also aware that I benefitted greatly from underdogs going 10-4-2 ATS overall in Week 4, and in addition to the Chargers’ push being available at +7.5, the Buccaneers push on +3 was also available at +3.5 earlier in the week, so I should’ve had a great week unless I was going something horribly wrong!
Enough looking back, let’s get to my “takes” on the full NFL Week 5 schedule, which has just 15 games with the Chiefs and Panthers having early bye weeks. For the uninitiated here at Tuley’s Takes, I give my “take” on each game from my “dog or pass” point of view, trying to determine if the underdog is getting enough points to make them a play – or if I recommend passing on the game. I’ll also give my patent-pending Tuley’s Pool Play Percentages for those in contests where you have to pick every game (or just as another helpful handicapping point).
Tampa Bay at Dallas (-8)
This week’s Thursday Night Football game is pretty much a dud with the Buccaneers at 0-4 and still without Baker Mayfield, but it’s receiving a lot of attention because it’s a standalone game and being projected as one of if not the top Circa Survivor play of this week despite most contestants usually avoiding TNF. I usually love TNF dogs – like the Browns last week – but I can’t quite pull the trigger here on the Bucs even getting more than a TD. The advance line on this game was Cowboys -9.5 and looked like it might go to 10, but it got bet back down to 8 on Tuesday morning. The Bucs defense did step up in Jalon Daniels’ first start as they lost only 17-14 to the Packers, but I don’t have the confidence of the early bettors that they can do it against the Cowboys’ offense. I’m certainly considering the Cowboys on some of my remaining Survivors, but if I’m betting this game I’ll probably just use Cowboys -2 as the opening leg in our Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio to our preferred games on Sunday.
Best Bet: Pass, unless Cowboys -2 in teasers (Pool Play Percentages: Cowboys 55/45 in rare ATS contests that use TNF and all SU pools).
Philadelphia vs. Jacksonville (-7.5)
We get another early London game this Sunday (yippee, I slept through the Colts-Commanders game last Sunday after the late Metallica concert). The advance line for this game was Jaguars -2.5 last week, but that was before they beat the Bengals 22-17 and the Eagles squandered a 10-point lead and lost 24-20 to the Rams. Saquon Barkley pulled a hamstring in the loss and the line reopened Jaguars -3 and was already climbing when the news got worse for the Eagles on Tuesday as Lane Johnson announced his retirement. The line is now up to Jaguars -7.5 at most books as of Wednesday afternoon and -8 at Circa Sports. As hard as it is to back the Eagles right now, that’s too much of an overadjustment and I have to take them getting more than a TD.
Best Bet: Eagles +7.5 or better (Pool Play Percentages: Eagles 67/33 in ATS contests, but Jaguars still 75/25 in SU pools).
Indianapolis at Pittsburgh (-2.5)
The advance line was Steelers -2.5 and didn’t budge after they lost 27-24 to the Browns last Thursday and the Colts beat the Commanders 30-13 in London. Indy isn’t getting too much credit for that as Washington didn’t have Jaylen Daniels. And it’s hard to take them at the short number with teams coming back from international games with no rest are 10-13 ATS (43.5%), so let’s just toss them in the Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio..
Best Bet: Colts +8.5 in teasers (Pool Play Percentages: Colts 55/45 in ATS contests, but Steelers still 60/40 in SU pools).
Minnesota (-2) at New Orleans
The Saints are off to a disappointing 1-3 start while the Vikings are an even more surprising 4-0. Brian Flores’ defense has been the key for Minnesota, allowing just 51 points (12.75 ppg) while the offense is still trying to find itself with Kyler Murray. It’s tempting to use the Saints as another teaser leg, but I think I’m going to pass here in case the Vikings are for real.
Best Bet: Pass (Pool Play Percentages: Vikings 60/40 in all SU and ATS contests).
Cleveland at New York Jets (-1.5)
Do you see how I’m trying to be selective here? That applies to this game as well, as my initial thought was to take the Browns plus any points. The advance line was Jets -2.5, but the Browns won their third straight game on TNF and the Jets lost 23-12 to the Bears and the line understandably reopened Jets -2. It has since been bet down to 1.5, so it’s clear the Browns are a dreaded public dog, and I have to invoke the “pass” part of “dog or pass.” However, I’ll probably use the Browns in some teasers as long as the line doesn’t drop further.
Best Bet: Browns +7.5 in teasers (Pool Play Percentages: Jets 55/45 in all SU and ATS contests).
Cincinnati (-7) at Miami
The Dolphins are 0-4 and in the running for the worst record in the league and the No. 1 draft pick, as expected. They were dominated by the Raiders and 49ers in the first two games, but then almost covered +9.5 against the Chiefs in a 24-10 Week loss and then did cover +10.5 this past Sunday in a 15-10 loss at the Vikings (thanks to T.J. Hockenson sliding down short of the goal line, though that’s yet another reason we prefer dogs, as we don’t need to cheer for chalk to score meaningless TDs to cover – and it was the right call, by the way). Anyway, the Dolphins are being more competitive, plus the Bengals are without WRs Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins) and will be content to just get out of this game with a W.
Best Bet: Dolphins +7 (Pool Play Percentages: Bengals 60/40 in ATS contests, lower at 6.5 and a pass, but Bengals still 75/25 in SU pools).
Las Vegas at New England (-3.5)
The Raiders fell from the ranks of the unbeaten with their 30-27 loss to the Chiefs on Sunday, but they did cover and are now 4-0 ATS as they continue to exceed preseason expectations. The advance line for this game was Patriots -3 before they turned around their slow start by upsetting the Bills 29-26 in Buffalo. But we’re happy with that as we now get the hook at +3.5 with a live Raiders team.
Best Bet: Raiders +3.5 (Pool Play Percentages: Raiders 67/33 in ATS contests, but Patriots still 67/33 in SU pools – do you see what I did there? I’m basically saying if they were to play this game three times that the Raiders would win outright one time, the Patriots would cover one time and the Patriots would win by 3 and not cover one time, and we’ll see this in a couple of other games this weekend).
New York Giants at Washington (-3.5)
This game looks the same to me as Raiders-Patriots. The advance line was also -3 and now up to -3.5, though in this case mostly driven by the return of Washington QB Jaylen Daniels after missing the 30-13 loss to the Colts in London and falling to 1-3. I’m not sure the right team is favored here with the Giants (3-1) coming off back-to-back albeit non-dominating wins over the Titans and Cardinals. Jameis Winston isn’t lighting up the stat sheet like he usually does, but he’s doing enough to keep the Giants winning (at least against teams in the lower half of the league) as long as he can limit the INTs (and pick sixes).
Best Bet: Giants +3.5 (Pool Play Percentages: Giants 67/33 in ATS contests, but Commanders still 67/33 in SU pools).
Houston (-7.5) at Tennessee
The advance line for this game was Texans -6.5 but has crossed the key number of 7 despite them falling to 0-4 with their 34-30 loss to the Cowboys and the Titans losing 24-18 to the Ravens (after Lamar Jackson suffered a left ankle sprain). I was lucky to go 2-0 ATS with the Dolphins and Titans in Week 4, and, yes, I’m backing both again, this time as home dogs as I certainly don’t think the winless Texans should be favored by more than a touchdown on the road against anyone despite how many people expect them to get off the schnied here.
Best Bet: Titans +7.5 (Pool Play Percentages: Titans 67/33 in ATS contests, but Texans 80/20 in SU pools).
Chicago (-2.5) at Green Bay
The Packers were 2-point favorites in the advance line last week, but after barely getting by the winless Buccaneers 17-14 and the Bears beating the Jets 23-12 with their third different starting QB in four games, the line flipped to the Bears as short road favorites. I’m high on this Bears team, but I wasn’t thrilled with the switch from Case Keenum to Tyson Bagent and they didn’t look as sharp this past Sunday as they kinda went through the motions in beating the Jets. I’m also not sure this line adjustment is warranted, but still too short for me to take the Packers ATS, so in the Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio they go.
Best Bet: Packers +8.5 in teasers (Pool Play Percentages: Packers 55/45 in ATS contests, but Bears still 65/35 in SU pools).
Denver (-3.5) at Los Angeles Chargers
Moving to the Sunday afternoon slate, this was supposed to be a battle of AFC West contenders, but the Chargers are off to an 0-4 start. The advance line for this game was -2.5 but has also crossed the key number of 3 after both teams lost this past Sunday. I’m sure the Broncos were hoping to be better than 2-2, but they’re a little lucky they’re not 1-3, as they could have lost to either the Jaguars or Rams, too. Despite being winless, the Chargers have been playing better in their losses to the Bills and Seahawks, as they should’ve at least covered at the Bills and did push at the Seahawks. They don’t have much of a home-field advantage in L.A., but they should be able to take this to the wire as well and hopefully just stay within a FG.
Best Bet: Chargers +3.5 (Pool Play Percentages: Chargers 67/33 in ATS contests, but Broncos still 67/33 in SU pools).
San Francisco at Seattle (-3)
The advance line for this NFC West battle was Seahawks -3.5 last week (I wish I had grabbed the 49ers +3.5 then), but settled at 3 after the 49ers beat the Broncos 24-14 and the Seahawks beat the Chargers 30-23. The 49ers (4-0) lead the defending Super Bowl champions by a game in the division, so this is a key early-season matchup, especially with the Rams scuffling at 1-3. As I said, we missed the value at +3.5 and have to pass just getting the 3.
Best Bet: Pass (Pool Play Percentages: 49ers 55/45 in ATS contests on principle, but Seahawks still 65/35 in SU pools).
Detroit (-5.5) at Arizona
I’m really conflicted on this game. Like last year, I was high on the Lions making a Super Bowl run, but they greatly disappointed last year by missing the playoffs and are off to a mediocre 2-2 start this season. I still have a hard time fading them and miss out on the Panthers +3.5 on Sunday night as Carolina won 32-26. The Cardinals are 1-3, but 2-2 ATS with their upset of the Chargers in Week 1 and covering vs. the 49ers in Week 3. I’m tempted to take the points here, but can’t pull the trigger as I feel I’ve played enough dogs this week in trying to be selective, and this wouldn’t be in my Top 5 or 6.
Best Bet: Pass (Pool Play Percentages: Cardinals 55/45 in ATS contests on principle, but Lions still 67/33 in SU pools).
Baltimore at Atlanta (-3.5)
The advance line for this Sunday nighter was Ravens -6.5, but then Lamar Jackson was hurt in the Ravens’ non-covering 24-18 win over the Titans and the Falcons upset the Saints 45-24 on Monday night and the line has gone all the way to the Falcons being favored by more than a FG. The Falcons seem to love primetime and I was happy to be on them in their 35-14 upset of the Packers a week ago Thursday, but this is too much of a line overadjustment. Tyler Huntley is a poor man’s Jackson and knows this Baltimore offense. It would certainly not be a shocking upset, but I’ll gladly take the bonus points.
Best Bet: Ravens +3.5 (Pool Play Percentages: Ravens 67/33 in ATS contests, but Falcons still 67/33 in SU pools).
Buffalo at Los Angeles Rams (-3)
This had all the makings of a Super Bowl preview in Week 3, but the Rams, the preseason future-book favorites, are off to a 2-2 start (and lucky not to be 1-3 after needing to rally late to beat the Eagles) and desperate to get back on the winning track and in the playoff hunt. The advance line was Rams -2 and has risen to 3 after their win and the Bills’ first loss of the season to the Patriots. If this were to get to 3.5 (not likely as several books have the +3 shaded to -115), I would take the Bills, but otherwise need to pass. However, I will consider adding the Bills +9 to some teasers from Sunday’s games. If I don’t have too many live teasers to this game, the one-game tease would be Bills +9 and Over 48.5 as it should be a shootout regardless.
Best Bet: Bills +9 in teasers, possibly with Over 48.5 (Pool Play Percentages: Bills 55/45 in ATS contests, but Rams still 65/35 in SU pools).
For more NFL Week 5 best bets, visit the NFL Week 5 betting hub, exclusively on VSiN.
SPONSORED
TONY GEORGE continues to dismantle the Sportsbook in MLB.
Tony finished the 2026 MLB Regular Season +120 Units/+$8060 on a low-volume, strategy-designed approach.
His Top Picks in MLB are 24-12 YTD.
But Tony was not done yet. He has carried that momentum over into the Playoffs as well:
- 6-1 in MLB Playoffs to date (10/5)
- +$1450 in the last 7 Days
- 1 Top Pick to date in Playoffs Cashed
See them here.
If you are looking for winning MLB picks from a trusted Handicapper with a track record in 2026 that is simply hard to find in the marketplace, then look for Tony’s MLB Playoff Picks at Docs Sports
