🏈 The NFC “Least”
What a Week 5 for the NFC East.
Cowboys: Lost Thursday night to the Buccaneers, who entered as 9.5-point underdogs.
Eagles: Took the lead against Jacksonville with eight seconds left, only to surrender a long kickoff return and a game-winning field goal.
Commanders and Giants: Washington inexplicably ran another play in overtime rather than attempt a potential winning field goal. The clock expired, and the game ended in a tie.
Alas, there are no more NFC East teams to provide our betting entertainment.
We’ll just have to settle for Bills–Rams tonight.
And according to the current Super Bowl odds, we might be watching a preview of February’s championship game.
🎯 Bills–Rams: The Sharps Like LA
Here’s a betting split worth watching.
As of late Sunday, 87% of the money at Circa was on the Rams -3.5 — but from just 36% of the bets.
Zach Cohen sees reasons Los Angeles could have the edge in a back-and-forth game. The Rams’ ability to get off the field matters, especially with Buffalo missing key defensive pieces, including Ed Oliver.
But not everyone is comfortable with the number.
Steve Makinen says the line doesn’t make sense to him — and he was saying that when the Rams were laying only three points.
As Steve puts it: “Sometimes the NFL oddsmakers’ adjusting process puzzles me.”
And Matt Youmans has his own take on Buffalo’s biggest advantage:
“Josh Allen is a do-it-all quarterback who can cover many of his team’s flaws, but …”
Three handicappers. Three perspectives on tonight’s game.
👉 Zach Cohen — Bills–Rams Side, Total and Player Prop →
👉 Steve Makinen — Why the MNF Line Doesn’t Add Up →
👉 Matt Youmans — His Bills–Rams Pick →
👉 Circa Betting Splits — Follow the Money →
🧰 Monday Night Football Tools
🤖 Opta AI NFL Player Prop Projections →
⚡ BOLT Plays — Posted by 1 p.m. PT →
🏈 NFL Matchups & Advanced Stats →
🎯 VSiN Pro Picks — 15 Plays So Far →
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⏰ Gill Alexander: “Total Malpractice”
I asked our resident Commanders expert, Gill Alexander, what he thought of Washington’s clock-management meltdown against the Giants.
He didn’t hold back.
“Team-wide failure. Jayden Daniels bears responsibility for not understanding the situation and that no one on the coaching staff seemed to be aware that they had no timeouts left and needed to spike the ball is unforgivable. Total malpractice.”
Gill was equally unimpressed by the postgame responses from Daniels and coach Dan Quinn.
“Perhaps even worse, both Dan Quinn and Jayden Daniels when asked about it in the postgame presser left a lot to be desired with their vanilla answers, leaving the feeling that each were performative in accepting responsibility because they know that’s what one is supposed to do rather than providing any satisfying answers or understanding the depths of the failure.”
More from Gill on A Numbers Game, 10 a.m.–1 p.m. ET.
>> Watch the Final 45 Seconds of Overtime
📊 Dave Tuley’s Week 5 ATS Report
Through Sunday’s games, favorites lead 9-4-1 straight up in Week 5 but are just 7-6-1 against the spread. Totals are split evenly at 7-7.
For the season, favorites are 48-28-1 straight up, with one pick’em. But underdogs lead 39-33-5 ATS (54.2%), while Overs hold a slim 39-38-1 advantage.
Trade news: The Texans picked up their first win of the season, against winless Tennessee, and then announced that they acquired disgruntled WR Marin Harrison Jr. from the Cardinals.
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⚾ Championship Series Doubleheader
The Brewers protected home-field advantage Sunday night with a 2-1 victory over the Dodgers in Game 1 of the NLCS.
Game 2 is tonight at 5 p.m. ET, followed by the opening game of the ALCS between Cleveland and Tampa Bay at 8 p.m. ET.
Adam Burke has a full preview of the Guardians–Rays series, including the matchups and betting angles that could decide it.
👉 Adam Burke — Guardians–Rays ALCS Preview →
👉 Dave Tuley — League Championship Best Bets →
Adam will post his best bets for today’s games later this morning.
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💰 Circa Contest Update: The Jaguars Save the Day
☠️ Circa Survivor: 2,913 Live Entries
After Thursday’s Dallas disaster, another 502 Circa Survivor entries were eliminated Sunday.
Atlanta’s loss knocked out 262 entries, while the Giants–Commanders tie eliminated another 210 — including 209 on Washington.
But it could have been much worse.
There were 573 entries on Jacksonville. All of them survived thanks to the Jaguars’ last-second field goal against Philadelphia.
That leaves 2,913 live entries chasing $25 million, with three picks pending on the Rams and one on the Bills tonight.
💵 Circa Grandissimo: 15 Remain
After Dallas eliminated nine Grandissimo entries Thursday, the remaining 15 survived Sunday’s action.
It wasn’t exactly stress-free for the four entries on Jacksonville.
>> See the Circa Grandissimo Hub
📋 Circa Million Consensus: 2-2
The five most-selected Week 5 sides are 2-2 with Monday Night Football pending.
- Steelers -2.5: Win
- Rams -3: Pending
- Bears -1.5: Loss
- Giants +4: Win
- Saints +2: Loss
The consensus is 11-12-1 for the season heading into tonight.
🏆 Scott Pritchard Leads the Invitational
Las Vegas professional bettor Scott Pritchard has a one-point lead over Colorado pro Carl Sack heading into Week 6 of the Circa Friday Football Invitational.
>> Check the Invitational Standings
👥 29-6 wins Average Joe Q1
NickNevada went 6-1 in Week 5 to take the EdgeBoost Average Joe lead at 29-6 — and win the quarterly award of a trip to Las Vegas.
👉 Check the Average Joe Leaderboard →
🛒 Want In on a Circa Contest?
The Survivor Sweat Marketplace has reopened, with 12 live Circa Survivor entries listed for sale as of Sunday night — and more to come.
It’s the Official Contest Entry Marketplace of Circa Sports, where you can browse surviving entries and make an offer.
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💡 Wunderdog: Nobody Hits 70%
From Geoff at Wunderdog: “My NFL picks have brought in 179.8 units over 25 years, hitting 53%. A hot month can show 65%, but no one holds that for years. At -110 odds you need 52.4% to break even, and clearing it season after season is what pays.
“I post every result, wins and losses. VSiN readers get a $50 credit toward my Pro Picks.”
