NFL Week 5 Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Steve Makinen:
I’ve been on a nice roll lately in the NFL, although my 7-2-1 ATS record on best bets in Week 4 came up a half game shy of my Week 3 record. That said, as I move on to Week 5’s game, my season record is now 25-12-1 ATS (67.6%). This week’s games are highlighted by the NFC West action: the 49ers and Seahawks meet in a big one on Sunday afternoon, and the Rams host the Bills on Monday night in what many sources are calling a Super Bowl preview.
If you were on the VSiN website earlier in the week, you may have seen my NFL article, New NFL Betting Systems for the 2026 Season, where we added several new team strength, streak, and last-game stat systems to our Analytics Reports. They’ve been a huge part of my early success, and I’ll keep leaning on them going forward. After digging through the Week 5 report, I’ve landed on these games for this weekend.
Thursday, October 8, 2026
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+8.5) at Dallas Cowboys
The storyline behind Thursday night’s game looks obvious. Tampa Bay is 0-4, and rookie QB Jalon Daniels is starting his first road game after throwing a couple of picks last week. Dallas has a high-flying offense that can put up 40 on anyone, much less a winless team. So why is 85% of the money at DraftKings on the Cowboys, and why is the line dumping to Tampa? What defines a “big public favorite” that savvy bettors should be willing to fade? Over the last three years, when a supermajority handle of 77% or higher got behind an NFL-favored team by 6.5 points or more, these groups have gone just 14-27 ATS (34.1%) for -15.7 units and a ROI of -38.3%.
Sure, I could easily see Dallas winning 31-14 or something like that, but I could also see a trap scenario where Tampa hangs around, its underrated defense keeps it in the game, and it comes down to the wire. We’ve seen stranger things before, and this season is proving that in these lone primetime games, anything can and will happen. One trend of concern for me is that Dallas is 23-18 SU but 15-25 ATS when playing on short rest (<7 days) since 2010.
Also, there’s some interesting data on the first and second halves of the season for Thursday night games. In the first half of the season (Weeks 1-8), home teams are 32-25 SU but 21-34-2 ATS (38.2%) in the last 57. The fact that the Bucs are reeling also comes into play here with another angle: NFL teams that have lost their last three games ATS are 22-68 SU but 53-35-2 ATS (60.2%) when playing as road dogs to non-divisional conference foes since 2003. If you’re worried about Daniels and the primetime lights, don’t, as rookie quarterbacks have fared reasonably well under the spotlight of non-Sunday games lately, going 22-24 SU but 29-15-2 ATS (65.9%) in their last 46 such tries. He’s a dual threat capable of big plays with another week of prep under his belt.
NFL Best Bet: Give me Tampa Bay +8.5 in Dallas on TNF
Sunday, October 11, 2026
Philadelphia Eagles (+7.5) vs Jacksonville Jaguars
Man, the betting public and the experts have dumped on Philly after a couple of losses to two pretty tough teams. Sure, the Eagles have some key injuries and lost a lineman to retirement this week, but let’s be honest, if this game was played two weeks ago in London, head coach Nick Sirianni’s team might have been favored. As long as Sirianni has been around, it’s hard to consider this team down and out, especially against good teams: Philadelphia is 15-5 SU and 16-4 ATS vs. elite defenses, allowing <19 PPG since 2020.
At the same time, the Jaguars have seemingly forever had a weak spot for non-conference opponents: Jacksonville is 11-51 SU and 17-44 ATS versus NFC foes since 2011. Don’t put too much into the Jaguars’ big win last week in Cincy either, as that game could have gone either way, and NFL teams that won their last game but got outgained by 100 yards or more are bad as non-conference favorites in the next contest, going 4-8 SU and 0-11-1 ATS (0%) in their last 12 tries. Plus, teams with +10 PPG point differentials are 73-38 SU but 43-65-3 ATS (39.8%) versus unfamiliar non-conference opponents in their last 121 tries. There is a unique betting splits disparity on this game as well, with 36% of the bets on the Jags, but 58% of the handle on Philly, the latter supposedly being the sharper money. The Eagles definitely look down, but I wouldn’t say out.
NFL Best Bet: I’ll back the Eagles getting +7.5 in London vs. Jacksonville
Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins (+7)
You have to be somewhat selective when backing some of the league’s worst teams, and one way to do that is to get a feel for how oddsmakers have set up a game for betting action. Look at this system backing Miami at home this week against the Bengals: Teams averaging under 14 PPG at any time are on a 72-63 SU and 86-43-6 ATS (66.7%) run, assuming they haven’t been bigger than 8-point underdogs since 2015. The experts behind the counter are giving the Dolphins a real shot at +7.
As it is, Miami is 64-36 ATS (64%) at home since 2014. This is a shot for head coach Jeff Hafley’s team to establish some momentum as they head into their off week: Play on home underdogs heading into their bye week. (Record: 40-24-3 ATS since 2015, 62.5%). As a franchise, Miami has gone 5-1 SU and ATS in its last six pre-bye-week games overall, allowing just 11.7 PPG. Since the opener, the Dolphins’ defense has looked decent, allowing just 22.6 PPG. There is some heavy road favorite action here too on Cincy, with 76% of the bets at DK going that way. When there is a difference of two or more wins in the standings, these majority number of bets groups have struggled to a 186-206 ATS (47.4%) mark.
NFL Best Bet: I’ll back Miami +7 to keep it interesting vs. Cincinnati
Las Vegas Raiders (+3.5) at New England Patriots
Has any team been more inconsistent than New England this season? The last three weeks have been a whirlwind for this team, with a couple of impressive wins sandwiching a brutal loss. It makes me wonder whether this team can be trusted to lay points, 3.5, no less. Having a minimum of four games under their belt for the season, favorites sporting a win percentage that is at least 25% worse than their opponent have a 32-39-1 SU and 24-46-2 ATS (34.3%) record since the start of the 2015 season. That’s a pretty significant ATS mark on that angle. Another fade system goes against head coach Mike Vrabel’s team: Teams with a 7-point or worse season point differential as home favorites are 59-60 SU and 45-71-3 ATS (38.8%) since 2016.
For Las Vegas, the effort in coming up short versus Kansas City last week was impressive. QB Kirk Cousins has been a massive upgrade for the franchise, and he is in a nice spot here as the road dog: Dating back to 2006, veteran starting quarterbacks in their first seasons with new teams have gone 41-35 SU and 51-25 ATS (67.1%) when playing as road underdogs of +5.5 points or fewer. The last 28 such games are 19-9 Under the total (67.9%) as well. Of course, LAS VEGAS has won and covered the last three matchups with New England, making this a revenge spot of sorts. I’m not sure motivation will help. This game has late field goal win written all over it.
NFL Best Bet: It’s Las Vegas +3.5 on the road at New England for me
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (+7.5)
I’ll be honest. In my decades of NFL betting, I don’t think I’ve ever seen a line this strange. Two 0-4 teams going at it, divisional rivals, and one of them is established as a -7.5-point road favorite. I have been scouring the internet every day since this line came out looking for some huge injury news regarding the Titans, because there is no reason they should be this big on an underdog. Overall, they have been solid defensively in their four games under new head coach Robert Saleh, a defensive mastermind by trade. In fact, they are holding opponents 1.3 points below their usual effective averages. If that continues here, Houston would be fortunate to get 17 points. Would you want to lay 7.5 points with a team only expected to get 17? On top of that, Saleh’s team is 2-0 ATS as an underdog of 7 or more this season already.
From a system perspective, in games between two teams with 35% or less winning percentages, and totals <= 41, underdogs are 35-30 SU and 44-20-1 ATS (68.8%) since the start of the 2015 season. Plus, teams averaging less than 14 PPG at any time are on a 72-63 SU and 86-43-6 ATS (66.7%) run, assuming they are not bigger than 8-point underdogs since 2015. This includes a 35-10-2 ATS (77.8%) record in divisional games. Regarding Houston, do we really feel they will be this motivated to get their first win when, historically speaking, 0-4 is a playoff death sentence? If you need more, consider that underdogs are 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS in the last eight Texans-Titans AFC South meetings at Nissan Stadium. Typical for a divisional rivalry.
NFL Best Bet: It’s got to be Tennessee +7.5 here versus Houston
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (+1.5)
I’m trying to figure out where oddsmakers came up with an opening line of Chicago -2.5 at Green Bay minus QB Caleb Williams? Is it a tremendous amount of respect for the Bears? Have they completely downgraded the Packers after their somewhat ugly start? Is it because head coach Ben Johnson’s team seemingly overcame their Green Bay demons by winning two games at the close of last season over their fiercest rivals? Is it a combination of all of it? I don’t know, but how can anyone be comfortable laying points on the road in a massive rivalry contest with a backup QB when the jury is probably still out on how these teams’ seasons will go?
Sure, Green Bay has not looked great so far, but they are 2-2, and my effective play by play ratings indicate they are actually an above-average NFL team. In fact, defensively, they rank 9th in the league, allowing an effective 5.31 yards per play. Chicago ranks 30th in that category, more than a full yard worse at 6.33 YPP. Regarding Chicago’s late-season and playoff win last year, recall that Green Bay was in relatively firm control of both games until late. We still have the obvious trends that Chicago is 12-29 SU and 14-27 ATS versus divisional opponents since 2019, and 35-49 ATS (41.7%) in road/neutral games since 2016. On the other side, Green Bay is 38-24 ATS (61.3%) at home since 2019 and 24-14-1 ATS (63.2%) as an underdog since 2019.
Sure, the Packers’ scoring stats might look somewhat ugly at this point, but in games matching poor offenses (<=19 PPG) against great defenses (<=19 PPG), the poor offensive teams actually fare well when the point spread suggests they should, as they are 55-32 SU and 52-31-4 ATS (62.7%) when either favored or playing as underdogs of +3 or fewer. From a rivalry standpoint, it’s impossible to ignore that home teams are on a 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS run in the Bears-Packers series. Perhaps last but not least, why, with 89% of the handle at DK on Chicago, has the line dropped from Bears -3 to -1.5. If head coach Matt Lafleur’s team isn’t fueled by this line and “underdog mentality,” perhaps the pessimists are right.
NFL Best Bet: I’ll back a much more motivated Green Bay +1.5 vs. Chicago at home
Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons (Total 43.5)
Obviously, the biggest story in the SNF this week is Ravens QB Lamar Jackson’s expected absence. With him on the field, this game was expected to be a matchup of explosive offenses. Without him, I think the game changes dramatically, because Baltimore won’t be looking to get into a shootout with the new-look Falcons offense.
To be perfectly honest, I have strong information suggesting that both sides of this point spread have value. Baltimore is a great underdog, Atlanta is on fire, etc. However, I think the decent stakes and the absence of Jackson lead me to an Under wager here. In general, I tend to think from an anti-public sentiment when it comes to betting the NFL, and for this one, at DraftKings, 75% of the handle and 93% of the bets are on the Over here. I assume they believe the Falcons’ offense will continue to roll. The magic mark for supermajority on the handle for betting Overs was 74% or higher, and this group performed miserably in 2023 and 2024 with a record of 84-107 (43.9%) for -33.7 units (11-11 for -1.1 units in 2026).
To me, this has been a long-standing belief, but when the Over looks too obvious, it usually loses. Plus, the Falcons have leaned heavily on the run in their surge, a natural Under producer. After winning on MNF this past week, we need to consider that Atlanta is 22-7 Under the total on short rest (<7 days) since 2012. They are also 17-6 Under the total in their last 23 primetime games. Because this game is on Sunday night too, it attracts a nice Under angle: In SNF games pitting non-conference opponents (AFC vs. NFC), home teams are just 29-27 SU but 23-31-2 ATS (42.6%) in the last 56. Under the total is also 32-16 (66.7%) in the last 48.
NFL Best Bet: Give me UNDER 43.5 in a tightly contested BAL-ATL SNF game
Monday, October 12, 2026
Buffalo Bills (+3) at Las Vegas Raiders
Sometimes the NFL oddsmakers’ adjusting process puzzles me. I know injuries and other personnel issues have affected Philly, but it seems the Rams got a big boost after their win at Philly last week, while the Eagles were downgraded significantly, despite covering the +4.5. At the same time, Buffalo was noticeably downgraded after their loss to New England, a team that always comes to play them. With the Rams still not clicking at all, why would this line, versus perhaps the AFC’s top team, get all the way up to -3?
I tend to consider the Bills almost anytime they are an underdog because they might have the most influential player in football, and you can be sure they will never stop bringing it if they get down. In this particular case, they should be fueled by the matchups against a fellow Super Bowl favorite in an environment that has never screamed “home field advantage.” In fact, my most recent study found the Rams enjoyed 1.7 points of true HFA. Does that mean the experts are saying head coach Sean McVay’s team is 1.5 points better than the Bills right now? I don’t buy it, and from what I’ve seen early, I’d say it’s the exact opposite. With a minimum of four games under their belt, favorites with a win percentage at least 25% worse than their opponent have a 32-39-1 SU and 24-46-2 ATS (34.3%) record since the start of the 2015 season.
There are a couple of interesting trends here that indicate the Rams are in a tough covering spot: 1) Head coach McVay is 12-7 SU but 7-11 ATS when his team plays with extra rest since 2022. 2) QB Matthew Stafford is 42-67 SU and 41-66 ATS vs. teams with winning records since 2011. As I indicated earlier, the Bills with Allen are always capable: Roas teams averaging 8.0 or more yards per pass attempt have been dangerous, 151-101 SU and 143-105-4 ATS (57.7%) since 2015. Like the SNF game the night before, there is an interesting MNF angle in place for this matchup: In MNF games pitting non-conference opponents (AFC vs. NFC), home teams are 32-32 SU but 21-41-2 ATS (33.9%) in the last 64. In most cases like this, I wouldn’t be so quick to fade a great team at home in a big Monday night game. I just don’t think the Rams are great…yet???
NFL Best Bet: Give me Buffalo +3 on MNF versus the Rams
For more NFL Week 5 best bets, visit the NFL Week 5 betting hub, exclusively on VSiN.
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