After 2,429 regular-season games, the 2026 MLB Playoffs begin with a longstanding division rivalry in the NL East. The Atlanta Braves host the Philadelphia Phillies at 2 p.m. ET on Tuesday, September 29 to kick off the best-of-three Wild Card Round. A Wild Card Round* was added to the MLB postseason in 2012, but it was just a one-game, winner-take-all event until 2022 when it became more of a series.
The Braves won the NL East by six games over the Phillies and took nine of 13 regular-season meetings, so pretty much the amount of games that they won the division by when all was said and done. Over those 13 games, the Braves outscored the Phillies 66-43, holding a very solid Philadelphia lineup to just 3.31 runs per game.
That said, the Phillies scored the fewest runs they’ve had in a non-COVID year since 2018, racking up just 713 touches of home plate. The Braves scored 742 runs, 18 more than they accumulated last season while finishing 20 games behind in the division. It was the pitching staff and the defense that made all the difference for Atlanta and we’ll see if they can carry that over into this series.
Phillies vs. Braves Wild Card Round Odds
Braves -125 // Phillies +105
Total Games: 2.5 (-115/-105)
Phillies vs. Braves Wild Card Round Schedule
*all games in Atlanta
Game 1: Tuesday, September 29, 2 p.m. ET (NBC)
Game 2: Wednesday, September 30, 2 p.m. ET (NBC)
Game 3: Thursday, October 1, 2 p.m. ET (NBC) – if necessary
Phillies vs. Braves Offense
Edge: Braves
The run environment of the MLB postseason is such that hitting the long ball is extremely valuable. Managers leverage their pitchers much more aggressively and hurlers don’t hold anything back. We often see the strikeout environment rise in the postseason and see fewer hits, fewer stolen bases, and fewer chances to score runs. That’s why hitting for power is such a huge deal.
Atlanta finished the regular season with 204 homers, while the Phillies had 182, led by Kyle Schwarber, who tied for the MLB lead with 45 round-trippers. Matt Olson paced the Braves with 41, as he had a strong bounce back campaign after hitting 29 each of the last two seasons. Atlanta wound up with five players with 20+ homers, while Philadelphia only had two, as Trea Turner fell one short of 20 and Brandon Marsh fell two short.
When all the regular-season dust settled, the Braves hit .234 to Philly’s .240 and also trailed in the on-base percentage department, with the Phillies drawing a higher rate of walks. One big difference between the two teams, however, is that the Braves were 10th in weighted on-base average (wOBA; think OBP, but the outcomes are weighted based on their run value) against right-handed pitching, while the Phillies were just 25th.
Phillies vs. Braves Pitching
Slight Edge: Braves
This isn’t an edge for the Braves because I’m a huge believer in their starting rotation. In fact, beyond Chris Sale, who will start Game 1, it is hard to love Tyler Mahle, Grant Holmes, and JR Ritchie, as we’re likely to see the Braves have to leverage their bullpen heavily. The reason why the Braves get the edge here is because the Phillies screwed around in the final week of the season and had to burn Zack Wheeler on the final day of the regular season to try and clinch a playoff spot.
The veteran right-hander threw six innings of one-run ball to help propel his team into the playoffs, but the best-case scenario here is that he goes on short rest on Thursday in Game 3 if there is one. Similarly, Cristopher Sanchez pitched on Friday with the team trying to secure a postseason berth, so he’d be on regular rest for Wednesday’s Game 2, but not Tuesday’s Game 1.
Jesus Luzardo, who hadn’t pitched since throwing a complete game shutout on September 7, worked one inning in relief and threw four pitches on Sunday. I don’t know that he’s built up to be a bulk option or a piggyback with Andrew Painter, but the Phillies will cobble something together.
While ERA shows a big difference between the two bullpens, the Phillies actually had the lower xERA and FIP. Atlanta was fourth in reliever ERA at 3.44 and Philadelphia was 21st at 4.43, but the Phillies had a 3.68 xERA and a 3.92 FIP compared to Atlanta’s 3.83 xERA and 3.95 FIP. The biggest difference was that the Braves had a left-on-base percentage of 77.4% as a relief corps and the Phillies had a 70.0% mark.
Had the Phillies clinched sooner, they would have gotten the nod here, but Wheeler not being available for Game 1 and probably not Game 2 is a pretty big deal.
Phillies vs. Braves Miscellaneous Notes
Another edge that the Braves have is that they are easily the better defensive team, which is also a big reason why they wound up with better pitching numbers. Atlanta was a top-five defense in Outs Above Average, Statcast’s all-encompassing fielding metric, while the Phillies were a borderline bottom-10 group. With the small sample size of a three-game series, it may not matter much. It also may matter a ton given the suppressed run environment.
Both offenses were below average in the second half by wRC+ (weighted runs created plus; where the “plus” means adjusted for park factor and run environment), with the Braves at 97 and the Phillies at 93. That means that the Braves were 3% below league average offensively in the second half and the Phillies were 7%. That said, the Braves were in the top 10 in home runs, while the Phillies were in the bottom five.
Former Phillies manager Rob Thomson led the team to the NL Pennant in 2022 when he took over for Joe Girardi, but he was fired 28 games into this season. He was 21-17 in the playoffs. Don Mattingly is 10-14 as a playoff skipper, going 8-11 with the Dodgers from 2011-15 and 2-3 with the Marlins in the 2020 postseason.
Walt Weiss is in the playoffs for the first time with the Braves after serving as the Rockies manager from 2013-16.
Phillies vs. Braves Wild Card Prediction
Pick: Braves -125
Do I think the Braves will win the series? I think they should, but this is a starting position because of the likelihood that we get Chris Sale vs. Jesus Luzardo/Andrew Painter in Game 1. Sale was simply stellar in the regular season yet again, posting a 2.16 ERA with a 2.97 xERA and a 2.29 FIP over 162.2 innings of work. He’s so efficient with his pitches with a 30.9% K% and a 4.8% BB% and that should set things up for the Braves to use Sale and then all of their top relievers if he can give them six or so innings.
Assuming we get Mahle vs. Sanchez in Game 2, we’ll have the opportunity to take the Phillies for the series at an even better price, as I think they are plenty capable of winning Games 2 and 3 with Sanchez and Wheeler, assuming Wheeler is ready to go for that elimination game if need be. Mahle has been outstanding since being acquired from the Giants with a 1.99 ERA, but he has a 3.59 xERA and a 3.32 FIP to go with an 87.4% LOB% that seems unsustainable. A Brent Suter/Grant Holmes piggyback also doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence.
So, the Braves -125 to start since Sale and Atlanta should win Game 1 and then a better price on the Phillies with their two aces likely to go in the other two games.
Other series previews: White Sox vs. Astros | Red Sox vs. Yankees | Cubs vs. Padres
