Tuley’s Takes – NFL Preseason Week 3:
With apologies to Chico Esquela (the fictional baseball player played by Garrett Morris on “Saturday Night Live” in the late 1970s), preseason football has been berry, berry good to me! And hopefully our “dog or pass” disciples!
After thankfully passing on the Hall of Fame Game (when the Cardinals closed as 1-point underdogs and lost to the Panthers on the final play of the game) and going 4-2 with my Best Bets in Preseason Week 1, my “takes” in Preseason Week 2 went a perfect 6-0 ATS in this column posted last Wednesday to stand at 10-2 ATS (83.3%).
I have a confession to make, as that sweep included the Commanders +4.5 at the Lions that was available when I posted my column, but not many people were able to grab that number, as the Commanders actually closed +1. And, in full disclosure, I neglected to grab it and lost at a worse number as the Lions won 17-13. Regardless, we’ll take 5-1 ATS any weekend, whether pre- or regular season, as we won with Raiders +1 at Texans (a lucky rally, but again we’ll take it), Packers +6.5 at Broncos, Ravens +3.5 at Vikings, Chiefs +5.5 at Buccaneers, and Cowboys +1 at Cardinals. The Chiefs were the only winner to need the points, as they covered all numbers in a 16-15 loss with the Packers, Ravens and Cowboys easily pulling off outright upsets.
Overall, underdogs dominated Preseason Week 2 at 9-7 SU and 10-5-1 ATS (we outperformed overall dogs by being selective) while road teams led 10-6 SU & 11-4-1 ATS and Over/Unders split 8-8. So far in the preseason, dogs lead 18-13-1 SU and 22-9-1 ATS (71%) while road teams are 19-12-1 SU and 20-11-1 ATS (64.5%), with Unders leading 20-13 (60.6%).
So, dogs (especially on the road) and Unders have been the way to bet. But we also mentioned last week that big line moves were 0-8 ATS and fading the public has also been profitable. The line moves went 3-5-1 ATS in Preseason Week 2 (we were a victim of being on the Commanders), so we certainly weren’t in a rush to post our takes this week.
It is a bummer to see the preseason end so quickly. But hopefully there is a silver lining, For years I’ve written at Daily Racing Form, ESPN.com and now VSiN.com that Week 3 was long seen as the “dress rehearsal” week when there were four preseason weeks with most starters sitting that last game (and Week 4 was usually a throwaway weekend); however, with the reduction to three preseason weeks and giving the teams/players an extra week off before the regular season starts, we should see more starters this weekend.
Let’s get to it as we try to keep building our bankroll for the real games!
Pittsburgh at Buffalo -3
This line has climbed from Bills -2,5 to -3, but I don’t want to fade the move with the Steelers, as Aaron Rodgers is not expected to play and Pittsburgh was shut out 17-0 by the Jets last Friday, with Will Howard and Drew Allar not showing much. Hard pass.
Best Bet: Pass
New England -2.5 at Cleveland
I thought the Browns would be bettable in the preseason with the QB battle between Deshaun Watson and Shedeur Sanders, but fortunately a lot of oddsmakers and bettors thought the same thing and they were favored (and thus I passed) in ugly 34-10 and 31-7 losses to the Bears and Browns. Watson “won” the battle and both aren’t expected to play this Thursday, so I’ll happily pass again.
Best Bet: Pass
San Francisco at Las Vegas -3.5
Fernando Mendoza threw a pick-six, and the Raiders fell behind 17-0 in the first quarter last Thursday at the Texans, so we were REALLY lucky to cash our Raiders +1 bet in their 22-20 win (and those who bet the Raiders -1.5 at close got even luckier). Former starter Aiden O’Connell led the rally and ran for the winning TD with 14 seconds to play. Unfortunately, they’re favored this Thursday, and I’m not willing to fade them with the 49ers with all their injuries, as they’re not likely to risk more.
Best Bet: Pass
Los Angeles Rams at Los Angeles Chargers -4
Rams coach Sean McVay doesn’t play his starters, but the Rams have still shown why they’re the Super Bowl favorites with a 20-12 win over the Chiefs and 34-0 over the Saints. For some reason I passed on them as short dogs in both those games (probably because starters weren’t playing at all), but I’ll take them here with Stetson Bennett IV and Ty Simpson still battling for the No. 2 QB role behind Matthew Stafford.
Best Bet: Rams +4
Washington at Baltimore -3
Even with all-time preseason legend John Harbaugh gone from Baltimore, I took the Ravens each of the last two weeks mainly because they still have a lot of players who take these games seriously and try to win (especially now for the new coach, Jesse Minter). But they’re favored here, so you know I’m passing on them. But I’m also not willing to fade them.
Best Bet: Pass
Houston -1 at Carolina
This line was as high as Texans -2.5, so we’ve seen some support for the Panthers. If HOF hero Haynes King was available, maybe I’d take the short dog, but I don’t expect Carolina’s Bryce Young (maybe a series), Kyle Trask, and Kenny Pickett to put up 34 points again against the Houston defense like they did last week against the Jaguars.
Best Bet: Pass
Atlanta -4 at Miami
The QB battle in Atlanta never materialized this preseason with Michael Penix Jr. injured. Tua Tagovailoa is expected to start vs. his former team, and maybe that’s why this line is so high. I’m tempted to fade it, but the Dolphins – expected to be one of the worst teams this season – haven’t shown much in these practice games either.
Best Bet: Pass
Tampa Bay -3 at Jacksonville
The Buccaneers have been playing to win this preseason (2-0, but didn’t cover in a 16-15 win vs. Chiefs), but they’re favored here. The Jaguars, with Liam Coen from the Sean McVay coaching tree, might be going through the motions here.
Best Bet: Pass
New York Giants -3 at New York Jets
I’m glad I kept backing John Harbaugh in preseason games with his new team as we went 2-0 SU & ATS, but now they’re favored. I thought the Jets would be playable this preseason with their backup QB room of Cade Klubnik, Bailey Zappe and Brady Cook, but they were favored in their first two games. Now, get a chance to back them as 3-point dogs in this annual New York-New York rivalry game.
Best Bet: Jets +3
Cincinnati at Philadelphia -2.5
This line has stayed pretty solid despite a bunch of updates for both teams as they haven’t moved the needle. The Eagles are favored at home, maybe because some people think there’s still a battle for the No. 2 QB spot between Tanner McKee and Andy Dalton (or they’re showcasing them as trade bait), but I’m willing to fade them with a Bengals team that is 2-0 despite not playing starters much (and they’re reportedly not playing this week at all). Josh Johnson (yes, the 40-year-old journeyman QB) and Sean Clifford combined to go 25-for-38 for 282 yards and three TDs in putting up 27 points on the Bears.
Best Bet: Bengals +2,5 or better
Seattle at Kansas City -1
The defending Super Bowl champs have been mostly going through the motions, as is to be expected, as these games don’t mean anything, especially after making a title run. This game opened around pick-’em with the Chiefs getting favored when Patrick Mahomes was saying he wanted to play. He’s now out, so I expect this goes back to PK, and I have no dog in this fight.
Best Bet: Pass
New Orleans at Dallas -1.5
We have a pair of backup QB battles here with Zach Wilson vs. Spencer Rattler with the Saints and Joe Milton vs. Sam Howell for the Cowboys, so this is a wash – and a pass for me.
Best Bet: Pass
Arizona -2.5 at Green Bay
This looks like a Hall of Fame Game with most starters (and both No. 2 QBs mostly likely) sitting out. I would have probably taken the Cardinals as road favorites here, but the oddsmakers took that away by opening them as road chalk.
Best Bet: Pass
Minnesota at Denver -6.5
There’s still a battle for No. 2 QB in Denver between Sam Ehlinger and Jarrett Stidham, so this line has sneaked up from Broncos -5.5 to -6.5, high for a preseason game. I’m willing to fade the move as the Vikings still have a QB battle. J.J. McCarthy not only lost the starting job to Kyler Murray, but it’s looking like he’s going to lose the No. 2 spot to Carson Wentz as well. McCarthy could be playing for a job (in Minny or elsewhere), so I expect the Vikings to be playing hard throughout, as he’ll be with backups also playing for their jobs.
Best Bet: Vikings +6.5
Detroit at Indianapolis -3.5
The Lions don’t play many starters, and the Colts have a No. 2 battle between Anthony Richardson and Riley Leonard, so that’s why they’re favored by more than a field goal after opening -1.5. No interest in backing the Lions here even though the line moves have done so poorly.
Best Bet: Pass
Chicago at Tennessee -3
This line also opened -1 and went to Titans -3.5 before settling back down at a field goal. The Titans have been playing to win under Robert Saleh and are 2-0, so it’s tough to fade them here. However, if Tyson Bagent ends up playing, I’d be interested in the Bears as dogs (but beware that if he is activated that this line could be gone quick).
Best Bet: Pass for now, but maybe Bears +3 if we can still get it
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