Week 16 picks from a "dog or pass" point of view"
It wasn’t too long ago that we were enjoying a pretty successful NFL season; in fact, I remember feeling very thankful at Thanksgiving.
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Even though we were only right around .500 with our posted plays here in our columns, there were several instances where I know most readers/followers were able to turn losses into pushes or pushes into wins with sharp line-shopping, plus our teaser portfolio often bailed us out as well. However, the month of December hasn’t been as good for underdog bettors like yours truly, as I’ve only gone 6-14-1 ATS (a woeful 30%) since Thanksgiving morning. Again, correctly timing our bets and line-shopping has helped, but only helped to cut losses.
In NFL Week 15, I went 1-3-1 ATS with the push coming in the Vikings’ 27-24 OT loss at the Bengals (very much a bad beat, well, bad push, I guess, is more accurate) and the lone win on the Buccaneers +3.5 in their 34-20 upset at the Packers. The losses were on the Broncos +4 at the Lions, Giants +6 at the Saints, and Jaguars +3.5 vs. the Ravens, and none of the trio were really close to covering.
We did have one unofficial winner that wasn’t included in the above records since it wasn’t an official play) on the Bears, if they got to +3.5, so hopefully, some readers were able to grab that in their 20-17 loss at the Browns. That’s always been the point of these columns to provide a roadmap while navigating the weekly NFL schedule.
I also lost my main 2-team, 6-point teaser of the weekend on the Steelers +7.5/Cowboys +8 as both legs lost. Hopefully plenty of you joined me with my chalky teaser early Sunday on the Dolphins -1.5/Chiefs -2 as that won to again help cut some losses.
Let’s get to this week’s full 16-game card. It’s going to be quite an adventure betting/following all these games in the middle of holiday celebrations. We have the usual Thursday nighter to kick off the weekend action, then two games on Saturday, the bulk of the Week 16 schedule with 10 games on Sunday/Christmas Eve, and then a Christmas Day tripleheader. I certainly didn’t plan it this way, but I have one underdog I like on Thursday and Saturday, only two on Sunday’s bigger slate of games, and then like all three dogs on Christmas. We’ll see how it goes.
For newcomers to this column, I’m a “dog-or-pass bettor,” and my breakdown of each game will usually be from that point of view as we try to determine if the dog is getting enough points to make them a play – or if I recommend passing on the game, which is a very valid and valuable betting decision when trying to come out ahead against the books! Even if I don’t have an official Best Bet, I’ll still at least give my recommended “pool play strategy” for those who are in contests where you have to pick every game.
New Orleans Saints at Los Angeles Rams (-4)
Not long ago, this Thursday nighter didn’t look too appealing, but now both teams are 7-7 and in the midst of the NFC wild-card race, while the Saints are also tied for the NFC South lead with the Buccaneers. The Rams have won four of their last five games, with the only loss being the 37-31 OT loss at the Ravens in Week 14, so we understand why they’re favored at home here, but we like the Saints getting more than a field goal in a game we feel should be closer to pick ’em. While the Rams’ offense has been more consistent, the Saints have the better defense, and we really like them against pocket-passers like Matthew Stafford. Let’s call for the outright upset to kick off the holiday weekend.
Best Bet: Saints +4 (pool play: Saints in all my rare ATS contests that use TNF and 67/33 in SU pools).
Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers
When the schedule makers put this as Saturday afternoon’s game, they certainly weren’t expecting Jake Browning vs. Mason Rudolph. Yet, here we are with the Bengals and Steelers having mediocre seasons at 8-6 and 7-7, respectively, but both trying to stay in the AFC wild-card conversation.
This game is pretty much a coin-flip – shown by the fact the Steelers were -1.5 on the advance line last week and now it’s flipped but still under a field goal. But this keeps it in the “teaser zone,” so we can move the Steelers up over a TD. This is a good spot to lay out our 2-team, 6-point teaser portfolio as we’ll use this game to hopefully connect to the Texans +8.5 vs. Browns and Titans +8.5 vs. the Seahawks in the early Sunday games, as well as the Cowboys +7.5 at the Dolphins in their marquee afternoon matchup.
Best Bet: 2-team, 6-point teaser on Steelers +8.5/Texans +8.5 among other teasers (pool play: Steelers 55/45 in ATS contests, but Bengals still 60/40 in SU pools).
Buffalo Bills (-12) at Los Angeles Chargers
We keep mentioning the schedule makers on this Week 16 slate, but it’s obviously this was expected to be one of the biggest matchups of the weekend on Saturday night in prime time (the Bills were just 1-point road favorites when the scheduled was announced on May 11), but here we are with the Bills as a double-digit road favorite.
However, we see it as an opportunity as the line has become so inflated that it was still only Bills -9.5 on the advance line last week. Yes, we know the Chargers never looked worse than their 63-21 loss at the Raiders last Thursday, while the Bills are finally back on track with their 20-17 win at the Chiefs and 31-10 rout vs. the Cowboys the past two weeks, but this line is still too much of an overadjustment for us to pass up.
Best Bet: Chargers (pool play: Chargers 75/25 in ATS contests, but Bills still 70/30 in SU pools).
Indianapolis Colts at Atlanta Falcons (-1)
This is the first of six games on the early Sunday schedule (probably the best thing about this long weekend schedule is we don’t have nine or so early Sunday games like we get most of the season and can really follow all the action across the league). The Colts (8-6) are in a better playoff position than the Falcons (6-8), but Atlanta is also only one game behind the Buccaneers and Saints in the NFC South so it’s important for both teams even though it’s an interconference matchup. This game has also flip-flopped faves with Falcons -1 at deadline on Wednesday, with Taylor Heinicke now starting for Atlanta. I would consider the Colts in a teaser if the line goes to 1.5, and we can move the line fullying over a TD to +7.5.
Best Bet: Pass for now, but Colts in teasers if we can get to +7.5 (pool play: Colts 55/45 in ATS contests but Falcons 55/45 in SU pools).
Green Bay Packers (-5) at Carolina Panthers
I’ve mostly done a good job this season of not getting suckered into backing the Panthers (2-12, 3-9-2 ATS), though we now get them in a “swagger spot” after beating the Falcons 9-7 on Sunday to snap a six-game losing streak. For the uninitiated, it’s called a swagger spot because they’ve gotten some swagger back, and teams in this role often come back with another solid performance (though, I will point out that the Panthers opened the season with a six-game losing streak, beat the Texans 15-13 in Week 8, but then failed to cover as 1.5-point dogs vs. the Colts in Week 9). We passed on that game, but we’re not afraid to fade the Packers, who had a lot of people jumping on the bandwagon but have lost back-to-back weeks to the Giants and Buccaneers and shouldn’t be favored by more than a FG on the road.
Best Bet: Panthers +5 (pool play: Panthers 60/40 in ATS contests, but Packers still 65/35 in SU pools).
Cleveland Browns (-2.5) at Houston Texans
We already gave this out as a potential teaser play on the Texans, who are expected to be without star rookie QB CJ Stroud for the second game in a row as he was still in concussion protocol as of deadline on Wednesday. That news has caused this line to flip from the Texans as short home faves to short road dogs, but I’ll still tease them up over a TD. Don’t forget that Houston still gutted out a 19-16 win at the Titans on Sunday without Stroud to move into a three-way tie for first place in the AFC South.
Best Bet: 2-point, 6-point teaser on Texans +8.5/Titans +8.5 among others (pool play: Texans 55/45 in ATS contests, but Browns 60/40 in SU pools).
Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) at Tennessee Titans
This is the second leg of the teaser mentioned in the prior game. We again get a home underdog of less than a field goal that we can tease all the way up to more than a TD, capturing the key numbers of 3 and 7 in the process. The Seahawks are coming off their 20-17 upset of the Eagles on Monday Night Football to get back to .500 at 7-7 and back into the wild-card race, but I still wouldn’t count on them covering on the road and especially not having to win by double digits to cover the teaser number here.
Best Bet: 2-point, 6-point teaser on Titans +8.5/Texans +8.5 among others (pool play: Titans 55/45 in ATS contest, but Seahawks 60/40 in SU pools).
Washington Commanders at New York Jets (-3)
I’ve always had a lot of readers/followers back East, so I know many of those are actually interested in this game from a fan perspective and also wagering on it, but I haven’t heard from anyone else in the part of the country talking about this game unless they have fantasy players involved. Hard pass for me as I have way more interest in Sunday’s other five early games.
Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Commanders 55/45 in ATS contests, but Jets 60/40 in SU pools).
Detroit Lions (-3/-3.5) at Minnesota Vikings
The Lions have been good to me the last couple of years – as underdogs. This season, I’ve been burned by them a couple of times when I’ve tried to fade them in the role of favorite. That happened again last Saturday night as they made a mockery of my Broncos +4 bet in their 42-17 rout.
But I’m going to go against them again here with the Vikings, as this line has gone to +3.5 at a few books and might be bouncing back and forth at -3/3.5 the rest of the weekend. As of this writing, most books are at Lions -3 -120, but we expect more to hit 3.5 as 77% of the bets at DraftKings are on the Lions (via VSiN Betting Splits page). The Vikings let us down in blowing their lead vs. the Bengals last Saturday, but we saw enough from Nick Mullens and the offense to back them here.
Best Bet: Vikings +3, but prefer +3.5, of course (pool play: Vikings 60/40 in ATS contests – higher at +3.5 – but Lions 65/35 in SU pools).
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (pick’-em)
A lot of games this weekend are around pick ’em, or at least under a field goal, but this one is exactly a consensus PK as of Wednesday night. The big question revolves around Jacksonville QB Trevor Lawrence, who is another QB in concussion protocol. I would lean to the Jags if Lawrence is cleared to play; of course, the advance line on this game was Jaguars -3, so we expect the line to return there if that’s the case. Either way, I’m probably passing this game as well.
Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Jaguars 55/45 in all SU & ATS contests, higher in SU pools if Lawrence clears concussion protocol).
Dallas Cowboys at Miami Dolphins (-1.5)
This is obviously the marquee game of the three “afternoon” games that start at 1:05 p.m. or 1:25 p.m. ET, though I still feel it deserves a standalone spot. Anyway, it should be a shootout between two of the best offenses in the league, as evidenced by the highest Over/Under of the week at 50 points. The Cowboys let me down with my main teaser on Sunday by getting run over 31-10 by the Bills, but I’m counting on them to bounce back and make this a one-score game.
Best Bet: 2-team, 6-point teaser on Cowboys +7.5, anchoring plays from earlier games (pool play: Dolphins 55/45 in all SU & ATS contests).
Arizona Cardinals at Chicago Bears (-4)
Before calling Las Vegas home, I grew up in the Chicago suburbs and then lived in Phoenix from 1994-98 (even holding Cardinals season tickets for three seasons), so a lot of my friends will be glued to their TVs for this game, but everyone else will probably be watching Cowboys-Dolphins. And me, too. My lean would be the Cardinals, but not enough to make it a Best Bet or follow it too closely.
Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Cardinals 55/45 in ATS contests but Bears still 60/40 in SU pools).
New England Patriots at Denver Broncos (-6.5)
I’m guessing the NFL didn’t flex this game out of the nationally televised Sunday night spot because no one else probably wanted to play Christmas Eve (and too much of an inconvenience for people who made plans to attend this game. But just because it’s still a standalone game, we don’t have to bet it. Despite their Week 14 upset of the Steelers, the Patriots just aren’t bettable right now. Hard pass as we prefer to track Santa on the NORAD website.
Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Broncos 55/45 in ATS contests and at least 80/20 in SU pools).
Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-10)
I’m sure you’re like me that every week there seems to be one bet that jumps off the NFL board at you more than any other – aka an automatic bet that you know you’re going to make without needing to do any research or handicapping. I know the Chiefs just beat the Raiders 31-17 on Nov. 26, covering as 9-point road favorites, and that would cover this number as well.
However, as we’ve written close to a dozen times, the Chiefs always seem to let teams stick around and usually only win by pulling out games late. After covering vs. the Raiders, they lost to the Packers (really?) and Bills before beating the lowly Patriots 27-17 last Sunday, covering vs. closing line of -10. The Raiders have also been playing better under interim coach Antonio Pierce and are coming off their 63-21 rout of the Chargers with extra rest from that Thursday night game.
Best Bet: Raiders +10 (pool play: Raiders 67/33 in ATS contests, though Chiefs still 67/33 in SU pools).
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-12)
It’s hard to back a team after you’ve bet them, and they totally soiled the bed like the Giants did in their 24-6 loss at the Saints. It almost spoiled the whole Tommy Devito story. But similar to the Chiefs above, the Eagles also let teams stick around.
Case in point: see their 20-17 loss at the Seahawks on Monday night, and don’t tell me they’ll bounce back from that as that was on the heels of getting blown out 33-13 by the Cowboys the week before. There’s no way they should be favored by double digits here, especially against a division rival.
Best Bet: Giants +12 (pool play: Giants 67/33 in ATS contests, but Eagles 65/35 in SU pools).
Baltimore Ravens at San Francisco 49ers (-5.5)
In a weekend with a mix of great matchups with some duds thrown in, we get a great Monday Night Football/Christmas Day nightcap with the Ravens visiting the 49ers that I’m sure many will call a Super Bowl preview (though I think both conferences are too much up for grabs to make that kind of statement, though guess it’s among the most likelier matchups).
If the 49ers are hitting on all cylinders, they should win, but there’s no doubt the Ravens match up well with them on both sides of the ball, and this could come down to a field goal either way. If the line was under 3, I would pass, but getting more than the field goal is too irresistible.
Best Bet: Ravens +5.5 (pool play: Ravens 60/40 in ATS contests, but 49ers still 65/35 in SU contests).
