Tuley’s Takes – NFL Week 8 Picks:
In the Tuley’s Takes home office, we hit a bump in the road in the middle of the NFL regular-season schedule as we went 2-3 ATS in NFL Week 8.
The weekend didn’t start so well as I passed on the Bengals +5.5 on Thursday Night Football and they went on to upset the Steelers 33-31. So, it was a bummer to miss that live dog, and then Sunday didn’t start any better as I lost with the Raiders +11.5 in a 31-0 whitewashing at the Chiefs and the Titans +7 in a 31-13 loss vs. the Patriots in the early games. We bounced back in the afternoon with nice wins by the Giants +7 in that epic 33-32 loss after shutting out the Broncos the first three quarters and the Cardinals +6.5 in a 27-23 loss vs. the Packers before losing on the Texans +3 in a 27-19 loss at the Seahawks on Monday night.
Our official published record stands at 19-15 ATS (55.9%), still profitable but nothing to write home about. Our recommended “Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio” did good but not great with wins on the Vikings +8, Jets +7.5 (early before +1.5s disappeared), Colts (+7.5) and Cowboys +7.5 but losses on the Jaguars +9, Dolphins +8.5 and Falcons +8 (early before flipping to favorite).
For the uninitiated, I’ll give my “take” on each NFL matchup from my “dog or pass” point of view, trying to determine if the underdog is getting enough points to make them a play – or if I recommend passing on the game. Even if I don’t have an official Best Bet, I’ll still at least give my patent-pending “Pool Play Percentages” for those who play in contests where they have to pick every game.
We have a short 13-game NFL Week 8 card this weekend with six teams on byes, but I still see a lot of live dogs and teaser opportunities so we should all be able to be selective and hopefully weed out the weaker plays (we used to call that “handicapping the handicapper,” so would love to hear from readers about which of my plays they feel are the strongest and which ones we’re better off passing. Here we go in rotation order..
THURSDAY
Minnesota at Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5 +100)
Tuley’s Take: As stated in the intro, I passed on the Bengals as live dogs even though I was 4-1 ATS on Thursday Night Football, as dogs have been barking in prime time (until Monday Night). The advance line was Chargers -3 last week before the Vikings went toe-to-toe with the Eagles before falling 28-22. The Chargers were run over by the Colts 38-24. It makes no sense to me that the line has risen to 3.5, so gimme the short-week dog again. Carson Wentz is still starting for JJ McCarthy, but I have no problem with that. As of this writing, most +3.5s have added vig of -120, so shop around as Circa has -115, and hopefully the chalk bettors drive the line up and we see -110 or even money by kickoff.
NFL Week 8 Best Bet: Vikings +3.5 -120 or better (pool play: Vikings 67/33 in rare ATS contests that use TNF, but Chargers 60/40 in SU pools).
SUNDAY
New York Jets at Cincinnati (-6.5)
Tuley’s Take: The advance line was Bengals -2.5 before they upset the Steelers 33-31 last Thursday, and the Jets fell to 0-7 with their 13-6 home loss vs. the Panthers. The Bengals reopened -4.5, and it has steadily risen to -6.5 everywhere. I would usually fade such a move as I don’t think the Bengals should be favored by this many points, even though they’re playing much better with Joe Flacco, but I’m certainly not thrilled to trust a winless team, so even 6.5 points isn’t enough to get me to bite.
NFL Week 8 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Bengals 55/45 in ATS contests and 80/20 in SU pools).
San Francisco at Houston (-1.5)
Tuley’s Take: The 49ers, at 5-2 despite all their injuries, should probably actually be favored, but instead of taking the short number, let’s kick off our Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio. This line has stayed pretty stable even though the 49ers beat the Falcons 20-10 on Sunday Night Football after closing as 1-point home dogs, and the Texans lost 27-19 at Seattle on Monday night. That keeps it right in the “teaser zone” as we’re able to move the line 6 points to 49ers +7.5 and capture both the key numbers of 3 and 7. We have several options despite the short card, so choose among: Falcons -1.5 vs. Dolphins, Bills -1 at Panthers, Eagles -7.5 vs. Giants, Patriots -1 vs. Browns, Cowboys +9 at Broncos and Steelers +9 vs. Packers. As always, shop around for the best lines to tease and the lowest juice.
NFL Week 8 Best Bet: 49ers +7.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: 49ers 55/45 in ATS contests, but Texans 55/45 in SU pools).
Chicago at Baltimore (-6.5)
Tuley’s Take: This line has been at 6.5 for a while as Lamar Jackson has long been expected to return from his hamstring injury after Baltimore’s bye week. The Bears are on a four-game winning streak, though I tell my fellow Chicago fans that it hasn’t been exactly a murderer’s row with the victories over the Raiders, Cowboys, Commanders and Saints. So, I still consider this number too short unless the public bets it up to 7 or, hopefully, higher if/when Jackson is officially announced as the starter. If that’s the case, I might add the Bears over the weekend (though probably still too late for most contests).
NFL Week 8 Best Bet: Pass for now (pool play: Bears 55/45 in ATS contest, higher at +7, but Ravens 75/25 in SU pools).
Miami at Atlanta (-7.5)
Tuley’s Take: The advance line was Falcons -6.5 before the Dolphins were thoroughly embarrassed 31-6 at the lowly Browns and the Falcons lost 20-10 at the 49ers on Sunday night. The line has since crossed the key number of 7 to +7.5, and I can’t resist fading the move. It is a wonder that Miami coach Mike McDaniel hasn’t been fired (meanwhile, tons of people are throwing Tua Tagovailoa under the bus and wanting him replaced by Zach Wilson of all people), and hopefully everyone is fighting for their jobs. This is just as much a play against the Falcons, who were impressive in their 24-14 upset of the Bills two weeks ago, but the loss at San Fran after being bet to favoritism shows me they’re not to be trusted to cover as chalk, and especially not by more than a TD here.
NFL Week 8 Best Bet: Dolphins +7.5 (pool play: Dolphins 60/40 in ATS contest, but Falcons still 75/25 in SU pools).
Buffalo (-7/-7.5) at Carolina
Tuley’s Take: For the uninitiated, the -7/-7/5 in the header means that as of deadline, line books are dealing Bills -7 while others are at -7.5 (and in most cases, all are charging added juice on the side you want). At times, the Bills have looked like the best team in football or at least solid Super Bowl contenders, but other times they’ve looked barely better than average. They were outplayed in that loss at Atlanta before their bye week, and they’ve also failed to cover in wins over the Dolphins, Saints and Patriots. The Panthers have 3 straight wins over the Dolphins, Cowboys and Jets (like the Bears, no great accomplishment), but if those other teams can stay close to the Bills, so can Carolina.
NFL Week 8 Best Bet: Panthers +7.5 or +7 (pool play: Panthers 60/40 in ATS contests, higher at +7.5, but Bills still 70/30 in SU pools).
New York Giants at Philadelphia (-7.5)
Tuley’s Take: The advance line was Eagles -6 last week before they beat the Vikings 28-22 and the Giants lost 33-32 at the Broncos (again, an epic comeback, but the Giants still covered for us). It reopened Eagles -6 but has been bet back up over the key number of 7. I know the Giants’ historically blowing a 19-0 lead entering the fourth quarter is really, really bad, but I don’t think this line should have moved so much, and I’m happy to take the bonus point and the hook. Is everyone forgetting that the Giants just beat the Eagles 34-17 two weeks ago, Thursday night? I’m not a big fan of the “revenge angle” as I’d rather have the team that has shown it can win a head-to-head matchup, especially when getting so many points.
NFL Week 8 Best Bet: Giants +7.5 (pool play: Giants 60/40 in ATS contests, but Eagles still 70/30 in SU pools).
Cleveland at New England (-7)
Tuley’s Take: I’ve been high on the Patriots this year, but I’m not sure they should be favored by a full TD here. However, I’m also not going to put too much stock in the Browns routing the Dolphins 31-6. If I was getting the hook at +7.5, maybe I would take a shot with the underdawg Browns. Instead, let’s just tease the Patriots down to -1 in our Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio.
NFL Week 8 Best Bet: Patriots -1 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Patriots 55/45 in ATS contest and 80/20 in SU pools).
Tampa Bay (-4) at New Orleans
Tuley’s Take: The Buccaneers are 5-2 but disappointed to be coming off a 24-9 loss at the Lions on Monday night. I’m still trying to figure out this Saints team that was supposed to be the worst in the league (still is at 1-6) but has been competitive in most of their games. However, this line is too short even with the divisional home dog.
NFL Week 8 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Buccaneers 55/45 in ATS contests and 70/30 in SU pools).
Tennessee at Indianapolis (-14)
Tuley’s Take: Similar to the Saints, the Titans (1-6) are only ahead of the winless Jets for the worst record in the league. Meanwhile, the Colts (6-1) are the feel-good story in the AFC as they currently hold the No. 1 seed approaching the halfway point of the regular season. The advance line for this game was Colts -12 last week before the Titans were beaten 31-13 by the Patriots and the Colts dominated the Chargers 38-24, but even if you think the Colts are the best team in the league and the Titans are the worst, I don’t think this line should be at two full TDs. Gotta take the double-digit divisional dog here.
NFL Week 8 Best Bet: Titans +14 (pool play: Titans 60/40 in ATS contests, but Colts still 90/10 in SU pools).
Dallas at Denver (-3/-3.5)
Tuley’s Take: All everyone can talk about is the Broncos’ miraculous fourth-quarter rally vs. the Giants after trailing 19-0 through three quarters and winning 33-32. It was amazing, but what a lot of people seem to be forgetting is how vulnerable a favorite they were and how outplayed they were for most of the game. The Cowboys can certainly match them score for score here. I’m tempted to take them plus the points, especially with +3.5 at some books, but this might be my No. 6 pick in the contests at Circa and the Westgate, so I feel the stronger play is to add as the pivotal afternoon play in our Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio.
NFL Week 8 Best Bet: Cowboys +9 or +9.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Cowboys 55/45 in ATS contests, higher at +3.5 and more likely play, but Broncos still 65/35 in SU pools).
Green Bay (-3) at Pittsburgh
Tuley’s Take: The Packers haven’t lived up to their Week 1 win over the Lions, but I still get why they’re favored on the road here. The Steelers are tempting as home dogs in the Sunday nighter, especially as Mike Tomlin should be expected to get his team to bounce back from their embarrassing loss at the Bengals. This is another game where I would be more likely to jump in at +3.5, so let’s just throw it as the anchor game in our Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio.
NFL Week 8 Best Bet: Steelers +9 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Steelers 55/45 in ATS contests, but Packers still 65/35 in SU pools).
MONDAY
Washington at Kansas City (-12.5)
Tuley’s Take: The advance line for this Monday nighter was Chiefs -5.5 last week and ballooned to -11.5 on Sunday night after the Chiefs routed the Raiders 31-0 and after Commanders QB Jayden Daniels limped off the field during a 44-22 loss at the Cowboys. Obviously, the oddsmakers could tell right away that Daniels was likely to be replaced by Marcus Mariota (and that is certainly what has happened), but I still believe that’s too much of an adjustment, so I’ll gladly take the double-digit dog. Besides, longtime Tuley’s Takes readers know that the Chiefs often let teams stick around before pulling out their wins. Granted, it hasn’t worked the last two weeks, but I’m still confident we’re on the right side.
NFL Week 8 Best Bet: Commanders +12.5 (pool play: Commanders 60/40 in ATS contests, but Chiefs 85/15 in SU pools).
For more Week 8 NFL predictions and analysis, visit the Week 8 NFL Hub, exclusively on VSiN.
