Tuley’s Takes – NFL Wild Card Weekend:
We can’t believe the NFL regular season is behind us here in the Tuley’s Takes home office, but we’re excited about the playoffs starting with the wild-card games this weekend.
Our best bets finished the season strong by going 4-1 ATS in Week 18 last Sunday (we only liked teasers in the Saturday doubleheader) with wins on the Browns +7.5 at the Bengals, Giants +3.5 vs. the Cowboys, Lions +3 at the Bears and Steelers +3.5 vs. the Ravens and were also proud that all four not only covered but pulled outright upsets (darn, shoulda bet more on the money lines!). The lone loss was on the Dolphins +10.5 at the Patriots.
The Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio was also profitable as our recommended legs went a solid 4-1 with the only loss on the 49ers +7.5 on Saturday but sweeping with the Panthers +8.5, Vikings -1.5, Lions +9 and Rams -1 (though the Vikings and Rams’ point spreads moved out of the “teaser zone” if you didn’t bet them earlier in the week), but I trust readers/followers fared well no matter how they played them, and it bodes well for the postseason.
Before getting to my “takes” on the wild-card games, let’s take one last look back at the regular season, as it can help with what we’re planning to bet on in the postseason.
For those who like my betting recaps at ViewFromVegas on X, favorites finished the regular season at 175-91-1 SU with 5 pick-’ems, but underdogs still led 138-126-3 ATS (52.3%). That’s a good sign, as you know, we’re going to be applying our “dog or pass” approach through the Super Bowl.
Home teams led 142-122-1 SU with seven neutral-site games, but led just 134-129-2 ATS (51%). So,, even though a lot is made late in the season about teams trying to earn home-field advantage, it’s negligible at best, and we’re not going to shy away from taking road underdogs. Having said that, I also will take an extra look when a home team gets points ATS or across the key numbers in teasers.
Overs finished the season slightly ahead at 138-130-4 (51.5%), so pretty close to coin-flips, though longtime readers know I lean to betting Unders, especially in the playoffs.
So, without further ado, let’s get to the six wild-card matchups. For the uninitiated here at Tuley’s Takes, I give my “take” on each game from my “dog or pass” point of view, trying to determine if the underdog is getting enough points to make them a play, or if I recommend passing on the game.
SATURDAY
Los Angeles Rams (-10.5, 46.5) at Carolina
Tuley’s Take: As I wrote above, I’m always going to look at home underdogs in the playoffs. I’ve cashed several over the years, but the first one that comes to mind (since it’s very similar to this matchup) is when New Orleans (11-5), the defending Super Bowl champs led by Drew Brees in 2010-11, had to travel to Seattle (7-9) as I was heavily on the Seahawks as 10-point home dogs and thrilled when they pulled the 41-36 outright upset in the “Beast Quake” game starring Marshawn Lynch.
That’s just like we have here with the Rams (12-5) visiting Carolina (8-9). I certainly understand why the Rams are road favorites, but I don’t believe it should be more than a touchdown as I would pass on +7.
The line is obviously higher as so many teams are saying the Panthers don’t belong in the playoffs (especially after losing heads-up to the Buccaneers and needing the Falcons to beat the Saints on Sunday to get them in NFC South champs via a three-way tiebreaker) and certainly not hosting a wild-card game, but that is usually a great motivating factor for a playoff dog.
If you need historical support, Marc Lawrence of playbooksports.com shares that playoff home dogs are 35-12-2 ATS (74.5%) overall since 1980, including 6-0 ATS when getting more than 4 points, plus 14-1-1 ATS if they lost their previous home game outright.
If you need more convincing that the Panthers can play with the Rams (and not just trends of other past teams), I just need to remind you that the Panthers beat these same Rams 31-28 just five weeks ago as 10-point home dogs. I can’t believe I haven’t heard anyone mention that yet this week (though I’ve been busy).
Anyway, this line was bet up to 11 at some books before settling at a consensus 10.5 as of this writing on Wednesday afternoon, so shop around for the best number.
NFL Wild Card Best Bet: Carolina Panthers +10.5 or better.
Green Bay (-1.5, 46) at Chicago
Tuley’s Take: We get another rematch in the Saturday nightcap, and actually, the third time these two teams have met over five weeks, with the home team winning the prior games. The Bears’ miracle comeback to give them a 22-16 win at Soldier Field in Week 16 led to them winning the NFC North title and hosting this game.
This game is a coin flip and should be right around pick ’em, and it has been as the Bears opened -1. It has now flipped to the Packers +1.5. That puts it right in our so-called “teaser zone” where we can move the Bears to +7.5 and through the key numbers of 3 and 7 (aka “Wong teaser” for old-school bettors). I’m definitely using Bears +7.5/Steelers +9.5 and Bears +7.5/Chargers +9.5, plus any other lines I can find as we get closer to the weekend (can we please get the Jaguars back to +1.5?).
As always, shop around not only for the best lines to tease but also the lower juice.
In addition, this is looking more like a snow game with midweek forecasts, yet the Over/Under has remained at 46, so I’ll take the Under as I expect this to play closer to what we saw in the second meeting in Chicago.
NFL Wild Card Best Bet: Bears +7.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers, plus Under 46.
SUNDAY
Buffalo (-1, 52) at Jacksonville
Tuley’s Take: The run of road favorites continues here, though while this line has been as high as Bills -1.5, it’s also been bet down to pick ’em at several books as of late Wednesday afternoon. That takes it out of the teaser zone for the time being, though I’ll certainly be monitoring the line for my own wagers the rest of the week.
Regardless, I think the best way to play this matchup is the Over/Under. Based on each team’s offensive and defensive stats and their scoring averages, I have this total being too high by at least a field goal. I would take it Under 48.5, so I’ll gladly take the added wiggle room.
NFL Wild Card Best Bet: Under 52, plus possibly Jacksonville Jaguars +7.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers if we can get it.
San Francisco at Philadelphia (-4.5, 44.5)
Tuley’s Take: It’s a little surprising how much the defending Super Bowl champions have flown under the radar this season with so much attention in the NFC on the races in the North and West, but they coasted to the NFC East title with little resistance from the Cowboys, Commanders and Giants, and get to host this game.
San Francisco coach Kyle Shanahan did a great job overcoming countless injuries to get the 49ers to a 12-5 record and a shot at the No. 1 seed before losing 13-3 vs. the Seahawks last Saturday night. Oddsmakers and the public have been underestimating them all year. I remember backing them as an 8-point road down at the Rams in the Week 5 Thursday nighter when the whole world was against them and they pulled the 26-23 outright upset in OT.
The 49ers usually match up well with the Eagles, going 5-1 SU & ATS in their last six visits to Philly, and I certainly don’t expect a blowout loss here as it should definitely be a one-score game and hopefully a FG game for our purposes. The Eagles are also only 4-4 ATS at home this season, so again, I don’t put too much stock in home-field advantage. Despite their postseason success, they’re also only 4-7 ATS as favorites in recent years, as they tend to let teams stick around (ala the Chiefs)
NFL Wild Card Best Bet: San Francisco 49ers +4.5.
Los Angeles Chargers at New England (-3.5, 46.5)
Tuley’s Take: The Patriots were one of the feel-good stories of the NFL season, though they fell short of the AFC’s No. 1 seed. However, even though they stepped up against quality teams like their split against the Bills and beating the Ravens to hold off the Bills for the AFC East title, it’s hard to get past the fact they benefitted greatly from a very weak schedule with only one win against a team with a winning record (the 23-20 win at the Bills in Week 5 as the Ravens finished 8-9).
The Chargers went 11-6 but fell short of catching the Broncos in the NFC West, but they can certainly play with the Pats here. However, I’m not as confident they’ll stay within a field goal, so I think the better play is to tease the Chargers up to a touchdown. I have a slight lean to the Under.
NFL Wild Card Best Bet: Chargers +9.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers.
MONDAY
Houston (-3, 39.5) at Pittsburgh
Tuley’s Take: The Monday nighter gives us what could be the fourth road favorite of wild-card weekend with the Texans (12-5) visiting the AFC North champion Steelers (10-7).
As we all know, the Texans have gotten here mostly with their No. 2 defense (it was No. 1 most of the season) at 17.4 points and 279.1 yards per game, while the Steelers needed some luck to hold off the Ravens for the division title.
Pittsburgh coach Mike Tomlin has his playoff troubles (8-11 SU and 7-11-1 ATS), but the Steelers have the edge in playoff experience overall, especially with QB Aaron Rodgers vs C.J. Stroud.
Again, not sure I want to take the short dog plus the reduced points (this line opened Houston -3.5), so we’re going to use the Steelers +9 as the anchor game in Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio.
NFL Wild Card Best Bet: Pittsburgh Steelers +9 in 2-team, 6-point teasers.
For more NFL Wild Card predictions and analysis, visit the NFL Wild Card Weekend Hub, exclusively on VSiN.
