Tuley’s Takes – Super Bowl Best Bets, Picks and Predictions:

This might not be the “Super Bowl everyone wanted” here in the Tuley’s Takes home office or elsewhere, but Chiefs-Eagles is what we get, so don’t throw a fit. I admittedly bet the losing sides in both the NFC and AFC Championship Games last Sunday as I was on the Commanders +6 in the Eagles’ 55-23 rout in the NFC and the Bills +2 in the Chiefs 32-29 victory in the AFC as the “Year of the Favorite” continued in the NFL.

It was especially frustrating for underdog bettors as dogs were actually 35-25-2 ATS (58.3%) with two games closing pick ’em through the first four weeks of the regular season. Then, the calendar turned to October, and chalk took over the rest of the year, finishing 20 games over .500 (30 games after Week 4) at 140-120-7 ATS (53.8%) with five pick ’ems. That means faves were 115-85-5 (57.5%) over the last 14 weeks of the regular season.

 

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Dogs bounced back early in the playoffs, leading 6-3-1 ATS through the divisional round but just 6-5-1 ATS overall entering the Super Bowl after the Eagles and Chiefs swept as chalk.

Even though not an official play, at least we cut our losses a little with our “Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio,” which has been saving our butts all year, with the Eagles PK/Bills +8 in the title games.

The Chiefs opened Super Bowl XVI as mostly 1- to 1.5-point favorites over the Eagles. Some books have gone to Chiefs -2 early this first week, but the line has settled at 1.5, so that’s what we’ll use in my “takes” here, along with the Over/Under of 49.5.

We’ll just discuss the side and total here, and then on Friday, I’ll post my “Super Bowl props tied to my side and total picks” and then other props next week.

Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5; 49.5) vs. Philadelphia Eagles 

Sunday, February 9. 6:30 p.m. ET

Caesars Superdome in New Orleans

The Chiefs are the two-time defending Super Bowl champions, so it’s no surprise that oddsmakers opened them as a slight favorite. Unlike last week when there was tons of support on the Bills against the Chiefs, early money has poured in on the favorite (59% of the bets and 76% of the money at Circa Sports as of late Wednesday afternoon, as well as 60% of the bets and 56% of the money at DraftKings, according to the VSiN Bettings Splits Page.

I believe I can argue that the Eagles (17-3, including three playoff wins) have been superior overall to the Chiefs (17-2, with just needing two playoff wins as the AFC’s No. 1 seed with a bye). The Eagles average far more points per game (28.4 to 23.2) and also have the No. 1 defense in the NFL, allowing just 17.9 points per game to 19.4 for the Chiefs. If you average those all out, the Eagles should be favored by a little more than a field goal, 23.9-20.55).

Of course, the postseason is a whole new ballgame, so to speak, and the Chiefs certainly have the edge in playoff experience and “knowing how to win” big games. We’re watching Patrick Mahomes on a historic run (unbelievably coming right on the heels of the Tom Brady era), plus we all know Andy Reid is probably the best all-time with an extra week to prepare. And, while I’m not a conspiracy guy (I usually say that great teams make their own breaks and don’t have to commit as many penalties because they’re so good), it’s gotten impossible to ignore the amount and timing of so many preferential calls from the referees.

So, while it’s tempting to say “the wrong team is favored,” I’m not willing to make that same mistake that I did last week with the Bills (who also could have been favored if just using regular-season stats and ignoring those other “intangibles” as Jimmy The Greek called them back in the day on The NFL Today with VSiN’s very own Brent Musburger).

As stated in the intro, I lost with the Bills +2 against the Chiefs as my official Best Bet in the AFC Championship Game but cut my losses with the 2-point, 6-points team, taking them up to +8 in the 32-29 loss (after hitting the first leg on the Eagles PK).

We don’t have another game to use in a teaser, but we can include the Over/Under in the Super Bowl. Even though both offenses are certainly capable of turning this into a shootout, I prefer the Under 55.5 in our 6-point teaser mostly due to both teams still being so successful due to their defenses as opposed to their high-profile offenses even though Patrick Mahomes, Jason Kelce, Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley get all the headlines.

NFL Best Bet for Super Bowl LIV: 2-team, 6-point teaser on Eagles +7.5/Under 55.5

For more Super Bowl analysis, visit the Super Bowl Betting Hub, exclusively on VSiN.

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