Tuley’s Takes Today 10/24: Monday Best Bet, Contest Corner, plus early NFL Week 8 picks


Sunday was another great sports betting day as the NFL dominated, along with two MLB playoff games and something for everyone (NBA, NHL, NASCAR, golf, soccer, etc.).
Personally, I even threw in some culture as I joined my wife and son for the musical “Hamilton” at the Smith Center in downtown Las Vegas. As far as I can remember, this was the first live NFL games that I missed in about 25 years (circa 1997) when I lived in Phoenix. Since then, I’ve always spent NFL Sundays in a Las Vegas sports book or a bar with multiple TVs (or at home with NFL Sunday Ticket or RedZone) to view all the games at once.
But I’ve long wanted to see “Hamilton” and I wasn’t going to throw away my shot. After watching Sunday’s early games, I recapped those on Twitter and went to the show. Afterwards, since I was wondering “what’d I miss,” I checked out the box scores and game stories from the afternoon games and caught up on the Vegas contest results, which you can find in our recaps below. It was like I was in the room where it happened, if you know what I mean (and “Hamilton” fans most certainly will).

As for my bets, my underdog plays were just like our country (“young, scrappy and hungry”), but we ended up going just 3-3 ATS with our Best Bets with wins on the Giants %plussign% 3 at the Jaguars, Panthers %plussign% 13 vs. the Buccaneers and Seahawks %plussign% 5 at the Chargers as all three not only covered but also pulled outright upsets; however, we lost on the Lions %plussign% 7 at the Cowboys, Falcons %plussign% 6.5 at the Bengals and Texans %plussign% 7 at the Raiders. One underdog I wish I had played was the Commanders %plussign% 4 vs. the Packers as it made me understand what the Thomas Jefferson, Aaron Burr and James Madison characters sang about how it must have been nice to have Washington on your side. And I guess with the way the Giants and Jets keep winning, in New York you can be a new man.
Let’s get to those recaps of Sunday’s betting action, including Contest Corner, and then give our Best Bet for Monday Night Football as well as early NFL Week 8 plays that I gave out on my weekly appearance on “The Greg Peterson Experience” (12:15 a.m. ET/9:15 p.m. PT Sunday nights on VSiN, plus 15 minutes into the archived version).


Top NFL Resources:

Sunday’s Recaps

NFL: Dolphins beat the Steelers 16-10 on Sunday Night Football, but did NOT cover as 7-point home favorites (game stayed way Under the betting total of 44.5 points). Faves went 8-4 SU on Sunday (upsets by Panthers, Commanders, Giants and Seahawks), but just 6-6 ATS as the Browns (%plussign% 6.5 at Ravens) and Steelers (%plussign% 7 at Dolphins) covered in SU losses. Home teams also went 8-4 SU and 6-6 ATS while Unders led 7-5.

More NFL: Favorites improved to 63-41-1 SU on the season with 2 pick-’ems, but underdogs still lead 58-44-3 ATS (56.9%). Home teams lead 58-46-1 SU with 2 neutral-site games, but road teams still lead 53-49-3 ATS (52%). Unders lead 63-43-1 (59.4%), while primetime Unders improved to 14-7 (66.7%).

Even more NFL: In Sunday’s early slate of games, faves went 4-3 SU but dogs led 4-3 ATS as the Browns (%plussign% 6.5) covered in 23-20 loss at Ravens. The upsets were by the Panthers (%plussign% 13 at Buccaneers), Commanders (%plussign% 4 vs. Packers) and Giants (%plussign% 3 at Jaguars). Home teams went 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS while Unders led 5-2. In the afternoon games, faves went 3-1 SU and ATS with the upset by the Seahawks (%plussign% 5 at Chargers). The Jets closed -2 at the Broncos and covered in a 16-9 win, while the Raiders (-7 vs. Texans) and Chiefs (-1 at 49ers) also covered. Road teams went 3-1 SU & ATS in the afternoon games while Overs went 3-1.

MLB: Astros (%plussign% 106 road underdogs) beat the Yankees 6-5 on Sunday night (went Over the betting total of 6.5 runs) to sweep the ALCS 4-0 and advance to the World Series vs. the Phillies (-132 home favorites), who beat the Padres 4-3 earlier Sunday (also went Over 6.5) to win the NLCS 4-1.

More MLB: Favorites finished 5-4 in the LCS round, but underdogs still lead 17-16 overall in the playoffs with 1 game closing pick-’em. Home teams finished 6-3 in the round and still lead 20-14 overall. Unders dipped to 5-4 in the round and 17-16-1 overall.

NBA: Faves went 4-3 SU Sunday but dogs led 4-2-1 ATS. Upsets were by the Hornets (%plussign% 10 in 126-109 win at Hawks), Jazz (%plussign% 8 in 122-121 OT win at Pelicans) and Blazers (%plussign% 4 in 106-104 win at Lakers). The Kings (%plussign% 10) covered in 130-125 loss at the Warriors. Timberwolves (-10) pushed in 116-106 win at the Thunder. Road teams went 5-2 SU and 5-1-1 ATS while Overs led 4-3.

More NBA: After 6 days of the regular season, faves lead 29-13 SU with 1 pick-’em, but dogs still lead 21-16-5 ATS (56.8%). Road teams took a 22-21 SU lead and also are hitting above 60% at 24-14-5 ATS (63.2%). Overs now lead 23-17-3 (57.5%).

NHL: Underdogs went 3-2 with upsets by the Blue Jackets (%plussign% 220 at Rangers, Blackhawks (%plussign% 120 vs. Kraken) and Sharks (%plussign% 110 at Flyers). Home teams went 3-2 while Unders led 4-1. On the season, faves still lead 54-34 with 3 PKs, home teams 52-37 with 2 neutral-site games and Overs still lead 49-41-1.

Contest Corner

CircaSurvivor is down to exactly 300 live entries after Sunday’s eliminations on the Buccaneers (70) in their shocking loss at the Panthers, Jaguars (5) vs. the Giants and Chargers (5) vs. the Seahawks. Only 125 have advanced to NFL Week 8 as a week-high 175 still need the Patriots to beat the Bears on Monday Night Football.

Circa Sports Million Top 5 Most-Selected Teams went 1-4 in NFL Week 7 (dropping to 19-15-1, 55.9%, on the season) with the lone win on the Jets %plussign% 1 at the Broncos. The losses were by the Lions %plussign% 7 (No. 1 picks drop to 5-2), Jaguars -3, Buccaneers -11 and 49ers %plussign% 2.5.

SuperContest Top 5 Most-Selected Teams also went 1-4 in NFL Week 7 (dropping to 21-14, 60%, on the season) with the lone win by the Bengals -6 vs. the Falcons. Losses were by the Lions %plussign% 7 (No. 1 picks dip to 4-3), Jaguars -3, 49ers %plussign% 2.5 and Buccaneers -11.

Monday’s Takes

Patriots -2/Under 46.5 (2-team, 6-point teaser): I was hoping to be live to my teaser on Colts %plussign% 8.5/Patriots -2, but the Colts lost by 9 points, 19-10, at the Titans on Sunday and I didn’t think about betting this teaser on the Patriots’ Monday night game vs. the Bears until preparing for “The Greg Peterson Experience.” Whether it’s Mac Jones or Bailey Zappe at QB, we expect the Patriots to win comfortably against the Bears, though we prefer teasing down the -8 spread to -2 just in case. And we’re teasing the Under (we usually prefer just teasing multiple games instead of same-game teasers like this, though it worked with our Saints %plussign% 8.5/Over 38 teaser on Thursday night). as we don’t expect the Bears’ No. 30 offense (and averaging just 15.5 points per game) to contribute too much to the total points.

NFL Week 8:
Packers %plussign% 11.5 at Bills (Circa):
Yes, we know the Packers’ shortcomings, and even though we didn’t fade them Sunday with the Commanders, we’ve made money betting against them this season. However, they still shouldn’t be this big of underdogs, even to the Bills.
Giants %plussign% 3 at Seahawks (Circa): We know the Seahawks are overachieving, especially on offense, but still no respect for the 6-1 Giants.
Steelers %plussign% 10.5 at Eagles (DraftKings): Eagles are league’s only undefeated team, but the Steelers showed last week in their upset of the Buccaneers and in their spread-covering loss at the Dolphins this Sunday night that they can still be live dogs.