Friday was another day of chores/errands and signing up proxy clients for the football contests in town (in case you missed my VSiN story comparing all the high-end Vegas-based contests this year, plus DraftKings’ offerings in other states, check out my story and chart HERE). https://vsin.com/comparing-rules-and-entry-fees-for-football-betting-contests/
I know I’ve mentioned how I’m trying to get my “honey do” list before the football regular season begins, but it seems like the list gets bigger every day.
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Anyway, the fun part of the day came with 14 MLB games and 5 NFL preseason games, but unfortunately that was equally frustrating as I had a losing night by going 1-2-1 with my MLB 1st inning wagers. I lost by Best Bet on the Red Sox 1st 5 %plussign% 105 vs. the Yankees as they trailed 2-1 through 5 innings (and added insult to injury by rallying to beat the Yankees 3-2 in 10 innings). I did win my 2nd play on the Marlins 1st 5 %plussign% 105 as they led the Braves 2-1. I also lost with the Brewers as they trailed the Cardinals 2-0, but it looked like I was going to win with the Diamondbacks 1st 5 %plussign% 105 and show a slight overall profit as they led 3-0 after the top of the 4th inning, but they let the Rockies rally to tie the game 3-3 after the 5th for a losing day.
I actually felt worse with my non-plays in the NFL preseason games as dogs went 4-1 ATS but I didn’t like any of them on Friday’s card. In addition, you’ll remember I liked the Over in the Hall of Fame Game last week because I felt the total was adjusted too low. This week, I was hoping to go with more Unders like I usually do in preseason games but felt the totals were too low – so, why didn’t I bet more Overs? They went 5-0 on Friday night with me not holding a ticket. That felt like a missed opportunity.
But let’s move on. Let’s recap the rest of Friday’s (full-game) betting results in MLB and the NFL preseason and look for more plays for Saturday as I’ve already posted some of the dogs I like in Point Spread Weekly and in these daily columns.
Friday’s recaps
NFL: Underdogs went 4-1 ATS Friday with upsets by the Falcons (%plussign% 2.5 at Lions), Browns (%plussign% 2.5 at Jaguars), Jets (%plussign% 1 at Eagles) and Cardinals (%plussign% 1.5 at Bengals). 49ers (-3) were the only chalk and home team to win/cover vs. Packers. Road teams also 4-1 SU and ATS. Overs went a perfect 5-0.
More NFL: After road dogs and Overs dominated Friday, dogs now lead 4-3 SU in Preseason Week 1 and 5-2 ATS. Road teams lead 5-2 SU and 4-3 ATS while Overs are 7-0. Including the neutral-site Hall of Fame Game, faves/dogs are tied 4-4 SU overall but dogs lead 5-3 ATS while Overs are 8-0.
MLB: Faves went 10-4 Friday with upsets by the Phillies (%plussign% 198 in 2-1 win at Mets); Guardians (%plussign% 140 in 8-0 win at Blue Jays), Orioles (%plussign% 130 in 10-3 win at Rays) and Red Sox (%plussign% 100 in 3-2 win vs. Yankees). Road teams went 8-6. Unders went 7-5-2 with pushes in the Braves’ 4-3 win at the Marlins with a betting total of 7 runs and the Mariners’ 6-2 win at the Rangers with a total of 8.
More MLB: Faves lead 1,001-661 SU (60.2 percent) on the season with 26 pick-'ems (faves usually win around 59 percent; still ahead of pace; gap had been narrowing but now back over 60 percent). Home teams lead 891-796 (52.8 percent, usually closer to 54 percent but on the rise). Unders lead 824-776-85 (51.5 percent).
Saturday’s Takes
Seahawks %plussign% 3 at Steelers (now %plussign% 3.5): This is another example of waiting for the best line with an underdog. This line was 3 all week, then the Steelers announced Mitch Trubisky would be starting this game for the Steelers and it went to Seahawks %plussign% 3.5. Thank you for the hook! Geno Smith is the incumbent to replace Russell Wilson in Seattle, but we’re hearing that former Bronco Drew Lock is having a good camp, so we could have a motivated backup. If they both see considerable time (and I expect Lock to get most of the snaps in the second half when this game is likely to be decided), I give a considerable edge to the Seahawks. Trubisky is No. 1 on the Steelers’ depth chart, so we don’t see as much of a QB battle there with Mason Rudolph and rookie Kenny Pickett. For future reference, Seattle’s Pete Carroll (26-17, 60.5 percent) and Pittsburgh’s Mike Tomlin (34-24 ATS, 58.6 percent) are both play-on coaches.
Panthers %plussign% 3.5 at Commanders: Now, this is a case where I gave it out at 3.5 and wish we had locked it in early as the line dropped to Commanders -1 at a lot of books. However, as of early Friday, it went back to 3 so we hope most readers were able to grab that. As we update this early Saturday morning, Panthers are %plussign% at William Hill books but mostly 2.5. There are still rumors that the Panthers are still shopping for a starting QB, but for now I still like the preseason rotation of Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Matt Corral and P.J. Walker battling for their spots on the roster so that’s still my recommended play.
Phillies 1st 5 %plussign% 150 at Mets: It’s tough to go against DeGrom, but the Mets are in an anti-swagger spot after the Phillies snapped their 6-game winning streak on Friday, so we’re counting on them to carry that momentum into Saturday’s game with Aaron Nola For my 2nd play, I like the Cardinals/Wainwright 1st 5 %plussign% 110 vs. the Brewers/Burnes.
Good luck today (and every day!).
