One of the great parts of being a VSiN subscriber is the access to tools on VSiN.com. One of the most popular tools used on the site is betting splits which breaks down the percentage of bets and the money that is being bet on the side, total and moneyline. I enjoy using the tool and love that it updates every ten minutes so that you can see the money and tickets count move, but there is more than meets the eye in the data. Let’s dive into some of the strategies I use to help my handicapping and some of the mistakes that people will generally make when looking at the information.
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To begin, let’s talk about how the data is compiled. Once a line opens, the betting splits will track all of the bets and money for that game. It is very important to note that it tracks that information at any number, not just the current number being shown. For example, let’s take a look at the Friday morning splits from the Bengals vs Cardinals game:
This split shows the current line, -3, and that currently 51% of the money is on Cincinnati and the ticket count is split 50/50. I chose this game as an example because the line opened at Cincinnati -7 and has been bet down 4 points in the last 5 days. With betting splits, that line move information is incredibly important. To move a line from -7 to -3, the majority of the money came in on Arizona, but that is not reflected in this chart because it tracks ALL the bets, not just the bets at the current number.
A sportsbook’s goal is to be able to balance the bets on each side, specifically when limits are going to be raised. It seems they found the magic number here at +3 where you are not going to get an uneven amount of money on the Cardinals. I can make that assumption because the handle is about equal on both sides. If this was broken out by number, the money on the Cardinals from +7 to +3.5 would be much higher than what we would see at +3. The fact that the money is about equal means I would not be surprised if -3.5 shows up at some point since the money on Bengals -3 must be significant to be able to even out the Cardinals +7 to +3.5 money.
Next, let’s look at a game that has not moved:
Here we can see that the ticket count is split at 50/50 again, but the money is coming in on New England. Once again, let’s look at the opening line so we can properly understand the data. In this case, the line opened at Patriots -1 and has consistently stayed there all week. That means that all the bets and the money have been tracked at that number all week. The data set is much cleaner and more straightforward. The bets are dead even, but the larger bets are coming in on the Patriots. Generally, especially early in the week, that is going to point to bigger bettors, which you would assume are sharp, playing the Pats thus far.
Let’s look at one more game which is a favorite angle of people who play betting splits:
Here is a classic example of reverse line movement. The Chiefs opened as a -5.5 point favorite over the Vikings and 77% of the tickets, an overwhelming majority, have come in on Kansas City. However, the line has moved from -5.5 to -3.5. That is explainable because the majority of the money, 60%, is being bet on the Vikings. When you see these types of numbers, large number of bets on one side yet a large percentage of handle on the other, you will hear people say this is an opportunity to fade the public. That is correct in a way, but you must look at the numbers.
The professional bettors have already played this game at numbers that are not available. To drive this from -5.5 to -3.5 with the majority of bets on Kansas City, which is a very public team, you needed piles of money at +5.5, +5, +4.5 and +4. Now that the line is -3.5, my estimate would be you will see the money start to even back out.
There will be people who jump on this +3.5 with the Vikings simply because of the splits saying they are the “sharp” side, and they are correct in a way. They were the sharp side at +5.5 to +4. At +3.5, that determination cannot be made yet.
I enjoy checking the betting splits page a couple of times during the day and seeing how the percentages adjust so I can track where the money is coming in at specific numbers. I will not place bets solely on the betting splits, but it does help me understand buy points in the market on specific teams. If you are using the page, make sure to understand what a line opened at and the numbers are a representation of all bets made, not just bets at the current number.
