Best bets for Week 5 of the NFL season
Wes Reynolds is on VSiN Tonight (9 p.m.-12 a.m. ET / 6-9 p.m. PT) and will be posting his weekly college football and NFL best bets for us. He is also one of the hosts of our Long Shots golf betting podcast. He also writes weekly golf previews
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NFL Odds | NFL Betting Splits | NFL Power Ratings | Week 2 NFL Hub
(odds as of October 6, 11:30 p.m. PT)
Bills (-5.5; 48.5) vs. Jaguars
(Tottenham Hotspur Stadium; London, UK)
After its Week 1 loss at the Jets, the Bills were highly oversold by the marketplace. Since the defeat in the opener, the Bills won 38-10 vs. the Raiders, 37-3 at the Commanders, and 48-20 last weekend vs. the Dolphins. That is a 123-33 combined margin for an average score of 41-11.
Meanwhile, the Jaguars have been an early-season disappointment based on market perception. Going to their home away from home in London proved to be a good thing in a 23-7 win over the Falcons. However, Jacksonville only had a 300-287 total yardage edge and actually had a 17-16 first down deficit, but they took advantage of three turnovers from Desmond Ridder.
Buffalo currently ranks No. 2 in defense DVOA, No. 3 in offense DVOA, and No.1 in overall DVOA, even ahead of the unbeaten 49ers.
However, with the huge travel advantage, this might be time to sell temporarily sell Buffalo at its peak.
6 may show sometime over the weekend as the public bets the Bills, but +5.5 is worth a take here.
Bet: Jaguars +5.5
Texans at Falcons (-1.5; 41.5)
The entire AFC South is currently at .500, but you could argue that the Houston Texans have played the best football in the division for the first four weeks. They have won two in a row and CJ Stroud has yet to throw an interception in 151 passing attempts, most of which have been behind a decimated offensive line.
On the other hand, Atlanta has averaged just 6.5 points over its last two games. Desmond Ridder does not appear to be the answer and is close to getting the hook for Taylor Heinicke.
So, why make the case for Atlanta?
Houston is getting overbought here. There is a great deal of "wrong team favored" sentiment here and they are probably the biggest square underdog on the board. Some bettors are also playing the recency bias of a common opponent with Houston just beating Jacksonville two weeks ago and Atlanta losing by double digits to that same Jacksonville team last weekend. Be careful with that.
Bet: Falcons -125 ML (bet to -140)
Panthers at Lions (-9.5; 44)
With the Bears victory on Thursday night, the Carolina Panthers remain the lone winless team in the NFL.
It has been a rough go of it for No.1 overall pick Bryce Young and first-year head coach Frank Reich. The Panthers rank 29th in offense DVOA and the only reason they probably not last is because Andy Dalton threw for 361 yards and two touchdowns at Seattle in Week 3.
Meanwhile, Detroit, who was only laying 3 two weeks ago at home vs. Atlanta, is now laying nearly a touchdown higher here. The Lions profile very well in the advanced stats ranking top five in total DVOA, offense DVOA, and yes, even defense DVOA.
Detroit is favored by more points this week than they have been in 106 games. The last time the Lions laid double digits was in 2017 against the 0-16 Cleveland Browns.
Granted, Carolina does not have much going for itself right now, but they did just hold the potent Vikings offense to only 265 yards last week.
This is another buy low, sell high spot here.
The +10s may show again this weekend, so feel free to wait.
Bet: Panthers +9.5
Cowboys at 49ers (-3.5; 45)
The Cowboys have been eliminated from the playoffs by the 49ers in each of the last two seasons. Now they take a trip to Santa Clara to take on one of the league’s two remaining undefeated teams.
The 49ers are off two double-digit wins and covering two double-digit spreads. Brock Purdy has been highly efficient, and Christian McCaffrey has been the best back in the league thus far, but San Francisco has feasted the last two weeks on two bottom-six defenses with the Giants and the Cardinals. Now they have to face the league’s best defense in Dallas.
San Francisco’s defense is still one of the top several under new defensive coordinator Steve Wilks. The Niners had the proper game plan against Dallas under previous DC DeMeco Ryans, which is to sit on the underneath routes.
Dak Prescott also currently has the lowest average depth of target amongst qualified quarterbacks. However, it is also likely that Dallas has been holding something back for this game. I expect them to take some more shots down the field on Sunday night.
The Niners are at the peak of the market off large margin of victory wins over the last two weeks. This is Dallas’s opportunity to prove a contender instead of a pretender.
There are some +4s available in the market at press time.
Bet: Cowboys +3.5 (to +3)
TEASER OF THE WEEK
Texans +8/Jets +8.5
TOTAL OF THE WEEK
Bengals/Cardinals UN 44.5
