Using NFL Draft Grades for Future Predictions:

A few years ago, I set out to determine whether there was any correlation between a team’s draft grades and its success or lack thereof on the field. The NFL is essentially a 12-month-a-year league nowadays, and it seems as if there is nothing more scrutinized each offseason than the three days that make up the drafting process. The way the experts and graders sing it, you would figure that it is of mega-significance when considering how teams will fare in the next season or two, right? I have logged draft grades since 2016 and have reviewed them each April since then. This article details the findings.

With all due respect to VSiN’s own Matt Youmans, who does “yeoman’s work” in both predicting the draft and analyzing it thereafter, unfortunately, I started cataloging the draft grade data a few years before I began working with him. Thus, I use a different, though consistent source for tracking the draft grades. That reliable source is Sports Illustrated, as they have typically put out their full analysis within 24 hours of the final pick being made. In the 10 years I have tracked their grades, I have only seen nine grades below a C-, including two this week: San Francisco, who received a D, and Cincinnati, who was even worse at D-. At the same time, there have only been 10 A+ grades, with one coming this year, the New York Giants. Chicago and Washington. The average grade since 2016 has been right around a B, or in numerical scales, a 2.992. With this steady analysis serving as the foundation of my study, I have again gone back and compared the regular season won-lost records in recent years to the grades that SI assigned the teams for their draft work. 

 

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As proven once again in my findings, there was little concrete evidence to suggest that anything that teams did on draft weekend made a substantial direct impact on their fortunes on the field in the near-term future. Now, I’m not so ignorant as to say that the players picked each year on draft weekend don’t mean anything to their team’s fortunes, as obviously they are the next cornerstones for franchises. I’m merely trying to convey that the grades you see given by sources like SI.com should be given entertainment value only at this point, and not used for thinking that what happened last weekend and the grade associated with it is going to instantly transform a team. The primary factors that contribute to immediate improvement or decline for any team are injury issues, free agent signings, coaching changes, statistical anomalies, and momentum swings. I wouldn’t let any team’s draft grade serve as the basis for any upcoming season futures wager for myself. That said, the Commanders improved by eight wins last year. Could a similar rebound be in place for the Giants this season? 

I actually believe there is greater credence that comes with sources that go back years later and “re-grade” team drafts, since that type of analysis is far more accurate after seeing the picks mature into successful pros after a few seasons. In short, don’t overreact to anything you saw or read about the 2025 NFL draft. I can assure you that it will take some time for that to sort itself out. 

As it turns out, those rare grades at opposite ends of the spectrum were mostly misses by the authors. That said, to the staff at SI’s credit, I have found that they are right more often than they are wrong. It’s just not a huge factor for determining significant improvement or decline right away. Still, this is why I chose them as the source for my data to study. Their work in this field can at least be considered credible. 

Take a look at the list below, which shows the 1-year, 2-year, 3-year, and 4-year eventual regular-season win differences for teams that were assigned grades in each of the numerical levels since 2018.

Grade: Avg Win +/- 1-yr, 2-yr, 3-yr, 4-yr
A’s: +0.63, +1.15, +1.22, +1.06
B’s: -0.19, -0.05, +0.0, +0.39
C/D’s: +0.04, -0.15, -0.03, +0.15 

As I studied this findings summary, here are some of my thoughts. 

–  The “A” grades generally showed consistent improvement, perhaps the only noteworthy numbers on the list. I will share the teams qualifying for this improvement angle shortly. Keep in mind, the +1 or so win improvements were over the one-season record, so even if the Giants or any of the other A or A- graded teams improve consistently over the next four-year span, it will only be by a typical one game won per season.

– The “B” level grades, or essentially the average marks, actually fare little to no better than the worst marks. The four time scenarios show essentially negligible returns.

– The grades on the extreme lower (C or less) for the most part turned out to be misses in terms of their predictive nature. In fact, teams with the lowest draft grades actually tended to see no difference either immediately or for the long haul.  Of course, as I mentioned earlier, there are many other factors that can contribute to these results. 

Looking closer at the potential win improvements from past draft grades, and focusing on the A grades of recent years, these would be the teams theoretically expected to improve from their records of that season for 2025 based draft grades from then.

2025 A Grades (2024 Record) – Avg. improvement expected for ’25: +0.63 wins
New York Giants: A+, 3-14
Pittsburgh Steelers: A, 10-7
Seattle Seahawks: A, 10-7

2024 A Grades (2023 Record) – Avg. improvement expected for ’25: +1.15 wins
Atlanta Falcons: A, 7-10
Chicago Bears: A+, 7-10
Detroit Lions: A, 12-5
Los Angeles Rams: A, 10-7
Pittsburgh Steelers: A, 10-7
Washington Commanders: A+, 4-13

2023 A Grades (2022 Record) – Avg. improvement expected for ’25: +1.22 wins
Carolina Panthers: A, 7-10
Houston Texans: A, 3-13-1
Philadelphia Eagles: A+, 14-3
Pittsburgh Steelers: A, 9-8

2022 A Grades (2021 Record) – Avg. improvement expected for ’25: +1.06 wins
Baltimore Ravens: A+, 8-9
Detroit Lions: A, 3-13-1
Green Bay Packers: A, 13-4
Indianapolis Colts: A, 9-8
Kansas City Chiefs: A, 12-5
New York Jets: A, 4-13
Philadelphia Eagles: A+, 9-8 

Taking an example calculation from this current 2025 draft, if the Giants were to improve by just +0.63 wins on that 3-14 record, they still wouldn’t be very competitive, but it would count as an improvement. Alternatively, a near one-game improvement for Pittsburgh and/or Seattle would have both teams in almost certain playoff qualifying position. 

It is also noteworthy that three teams appear multiple times on the above lists, led by the Steelers, who are on there three times over the last four years. The Lions and Eagles each make it twice. 

That leads to another interesting way to look at this draft grade information is to focus on the cumulative grades by team against their on-the-field success over the last five seasons. Here are the NFL’s 32 teams in alphabetical order with their average SI.com draft grade and league ranking for the time period of 2019-24 as compared to their regular season won-lost record in that same span: 

Note that I have used a common grade point average scale for quantifying the draft grades. I.e., A – 4.0, A- 3.7, B+ 3.3, etc.

Team: SI.com 6-year Draft Grade (Rank), Won-Lost Record (Rank)
Arizona Cardinals: 2.55 (29), 40-59-1 (27)
Atlanta Falcons: 3.17 (8), 40-60 (26)
Baltimore Ravens: 3.55 (1), 68-32 (3)
Buffalo Bills: 2.73 (24), 71-28-1 (2)
Carolina Panthers: 3 (15), 29-71 (32)
Chicago Bears: 3.07 (11), 37-63 (28)
Cincinnati Bengals: 2.57 (28), 46-52-2 (20)
Cleveland Browns: 3 (15), 46-54 (19)
Dallas Cowboys: 2.7 (26), 57-43 (11)
Denver Broncos: 2.82 (21), 42-58 (22)
Detroit Lions: 3.28 (6), 47-51-2 (18)
Green Bay Packers: 3.22 (7), 67-33 (4)
Houston Texans: 2.85 (19), 41-58-1 (23)
Indianapolis Colts: 3.45 (2), 48-51-1 (16)
Jacksonville Jaguars: 2.35 (31), 32-68 (31)
Kansas City Chiefs: 3.03 (13), 78-22 (1)
Las Vegas Raiders: 2.65 (27), 41-59 (25)
Los Angeles Chargers: 2.85 (19), 53-47 (13)
Los Angeles Rams: 3.17 (8), 52-48 (14)
Miami Dolphins: 2.38 (30), 52-48 (14)
Minnesota Vikings: 2.72 (25), 59-41 (8)
New England Patriots: 3.02 (14), 45-55 (21)
New Orleans Saints: 2.28 (32), 55-45 (12)
New York Giants: 3.32 (5), 32-67-1 (30)
New York Jets: 3.45 (2), 32-68 (29)
Philadelphia Eagles: 3.17 (8), 61-38-1 (5)
Pittsburgh Steelers: 3.33 (4), 59-40-1 (7)
San Francisco 49ers: 2.78 (23), 60-40 (6)
Seattle Seahawks: 3 (15), 58-42 (9)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 3.07 (11), 58-42 (9)
Tennessee Titans: 2.93 (18), 48-52 (17)
Washington Commanders: 2.82 (22), 41-58-1 (23) 

A few highlights from this:

–  The teams that have both played and drafted well would be considered: Baltimore, Green Bay, Philadelphia, and Pittsburgh. All are ranked in top 10 in both draft rank and won-lost record.

–  The teams that have struggled on draft weekend and on the field over the last five years have been: Arizona, Jacksonville, & Las Vegas. All are bottom 10 ranked teams in both categories.

– Teams that have greatly outperformed their supposed draft respect have been: Buffalo (+22), New Orleans (+20), Minnesota (+17), San Francisco (+17), and Miami (+16). Of the five listed here, New Orleans, Miami, and San Francisco again received poor draft grades of C+ or worse. Minnesota was given the best grade, B+.

– Teams that have not consistently transferred draft success to the playing field: NY Jets (-27), NY Giants (-25), Atlanta (-18), Chicago (-17), & Carolina (-17). Both the Giants & Panthers received A-level grades this season, while none of the other three are worse than B-. That said, historically, these positive draft reviews have meant little to these teams’ on-field fortunes.

Team-by-team draft analysis

The last thing I looked at was each individual team’s draft performance. As you’ll see below, there have been some interesting patterns that have emerged in correlation between draft grades on on-field success. In other cases, draft analysis and winning football games have been purely random. 

Team: Draft Grades 2025, ‘24, ‘23, ‘22, ‘21, ‘20

Arizona Cardinals: B, B+, B-, D, C
The Cardinals endured a draft “rut” from 2021-23, averaging a 1.9 DGPA. Not coincidentally, they bottomed out at 4-13 in back-to-back seasons. Then, their 2024 draft weekend got solid reviews, and the team immediately improved by four games in the standings. Of course, the healthy return of QB Kyler Murray probably had as much to do with that as anything else. This year’s draft for Arizona received a grade of B, above average for the franchise by recent standards, but not something to be overly excited about. It was a heavy-leaning draft weekend despite improving by 4.5 PPG on that side of the ball last season.

Atlanta Falcons: B, A, B, B-, B
The Falcons’ draft last year was their most highly rated since prior to 2016. It resulted in a one-game win improvement over the prior year, but the future certainly looks brighter after the partial season that #8 draft pick QB Michael Penix put in. He nearly led them to a playoff berth. This year’s draft was graded as exactly average, a B, so building off of last year’s growth will be this franchise’s secret to success in 2025. The focus was on defense, as they added a pair of edge rushers in the first round alone. Considering that Atlanta has won between seven and eight games in six of the last seven seasons, anything significantly bigger or smaller this year would be out of the norm.

Baltimore Ravens: B, A-, B+, A+, B+
This past weekend was the first time in six years that Baltimore didn’t get a draft grade that was considered better than average. Fortunately for the writers at SI, it’s hard to accuse them of any bias, since the Ravens’ on-field success has matched that sentiment. With this year’s grade being an uncustomary low B, it’s hard to envision this draft class being the factor that finally puts this franchise over the hump.

Buffalo Bills: B, C-, B, B-, B
Buffalo’s emergence as an AFC power back around 2019 seemed to coincide with a strong draft grade run from 2016 to 2019. The Bills received three A-level grades during that span, but none since, including this year, when they collected another average B grade. They have won at least 10 games in six straight seasons, and much of that stems from drafting QB Josh Allen in 2018. Unfortunately, it seems their lower-rated drafts in recent years are contributing to a failure to take that elusive postseason step forward.

Carolina Panthers: A-, B+, A, C, C
The Panthers have the worst record in all of the NFL over the last six seasons, so you’d have to think that the last three draft classes, each rated B+ or better, can turn things around for this franchise. However, the 2023 draft, the one in which the Panthers selected QB Bryce Young, might be the one that holds all the cards. Young was a lot better in 2024 than he was in 2023, so much that the offense went from 13.9 PPG to 20.1 PPG, and the team improved by three wins. Could a big ’25 draft class, highlighted by #8 pick WR Tetairoa McMillan of Arizona, help this team improve even more this season?

Chicago Bears: B-, A+, B, C, A-
Chicago received an A+ grade for its 2024 draft, but you have to remember that the Bears also received a A-level grade when they picked QB Justin Fields in 2021. Of course, the Fields pick did not lead to riches for the franchise, and after a sketchy rookie year, the jury is still out on #1 pick QB Caleb Williams. Chicago actually took a step back with him under center, going from 7-10 to 5-12. The low draft grade this year doesn’t figure to help, but any improvement or decline from the Bears in 2025 hinges more on Williams’ development under new head coach Ben Johnson.

Cincinnati Bengals: D-, B-, B, B, C+
There are some legitimate concerns regarding Cincinnati’s immediate NFL future, as not only have the Bengals put a king’s ransom into paying their top three offensive stars, but they lost some very key defensive talent and now just received a draft grade of D- for their work this past weekend. None of them screams as a reason for optimism, especially considering the Bengals were just 9-8 last year despite scoring 27.8 PPG. It was the 25.5 PPG allowed that kept them from reaching the playoffs. This franchise hasn’t received a draft grade of better than a B since picking QB Joe Burrow in 2020 and could be stuck in neutral because of it.

Cleveland Browns: A-, C, C-, B+, A
Cleveland’s draft performance over the last 10 years may be among the least consistent in the league, according to SI. Three “A” grades, four “C” grades, and three in between. The most recent class has been given an A- by SI, a great sign as the team tries to recover from the disastrous trade for QB Deshaun Watson a few years ago. He is still on the roster, so it was curious that the team drafted two quarterbacks this season, including Shaduer Sanders, who inexplicably slipped to the fifth round. This franchise declined by eight wins last year, so a solid draft is a good start in getting it turned around, but in the end, whoever wins the QB job and how he performs will say a lot about what happens to the Browns in 2025.

Dallas Cowboys: B+, D+, C, C+, B
The Cowboys have been a perfect example of how the draft grades of SI and on-field performance don’t always correlate. Dallas had some pretty rough draft classes in recent years by SI standards, yet went 12-5 in three consecutive seasons. In 2020, they received a grade of A+ but went back two wins that season. Now, this franchise is in a critical transitional season, having moved on from HC Mike McCarthy. QB Dak Prescott will be back from injury but this team slipped badly on both sides of the ball last year and has a lot of ground to make up.

Denver Broncos: B, C+, D+, B, B+
The Broncos only received a grade of C+ for their 2024 draft work, and in doing this same piece a year ago, I wrote: The franchise’s love for QB Bo Nix was particularly scrutinized last week. I personally like the pick and believe Nix could be a more advanced young QB because of his age (24). He was a gritty, tough-nosed player for both Auburn and Oregon and could be underrated headed into ’24 now that QB Russell Wilson has moved on to Pittsburgh. The early returns on that pick indicate that Denver hit the jackpot as Nix had a huge rookie season and led his team back to the playoffs. This year’s draft received a grade of B, the best since 2022, and adds some offensive weapons to the mix. Head coach Sean Payton has this team headed in the right direction.

Detroit Lions: B-, A, C+, A, B-
For as much as the Lions’ core group of players remains in position to defend what was a 15-2 NFC North winning season, a subpar draft and the loss of both of their coordinators have some experts predicting regression in ’25. Detroit has made a quick, consistent climb upward over the last four seasons under head coach Dan Campbell, so it’s no surprise that other franchises came poaching his staff. This year’s B- draft class adds some strength up front on both offense and defense, and the Lions are already as dynamic on both sides of the ball as anyone.

Green Bay Packers: C+, B+, B+, A, A-
This year’s NFL draft was held at the home of the Packers, and much to everyone’s surprise, the franchise did something they haven’t done in a long time…select a wide receiver with their first-round pick. Not only that, but they added another potential stud player at that position in the third round. Considering that Green Bay was judged to be one of the deepest teams at that position heading into the 2024 season, it was curious to say the least. That said, it’s hard to criticize GB’s front office much, since they’ve drafted very well in recent years, have the youngest team in the league on a perennial basis, yet have the league’s third-best record over the last six seasons. Plus, how much could another pair of weapons mean for QB Jordan Love?

Houston Texans: C, B-, A, B, B-
Correctly, the Texans’ 2003 draft class received a grade of A. That was the year the franchise added QB CJ Stroud and LB Will Anderson, the respective current leaders on each side of the ball for the team. Since that draft, this team has gone 10-7 in back-to-back years, winning a home playoff game each time as well. However, after back-to-back subpar drafts, there is some concern that Houston is reaching its ceiling, especially with the upper-echelon talent of a few teams that currently lead them in the AFC. This year’s draft landed a grade of C and was without a first-round pick. There is still some cushion between them and the rest of the South Division, but I’m not sure there’s enough upside based on this offseason to expect more.

Indianapolis Colts: B, B+, A-, A, B
Indianapolis has not received a draft grade worse than a B since 2018, yet the franchise seems to be stuck in neutral with a 48-51-1 regular record in that time span. Despite an average grade of B for this year’s class, which featured four Big Ten selections, there is some excitement regarding the additions of TE Tyler Warren (Penn State) and Edge rusher JT Tuimoloau. There have been some good signs the last couple of years that the young talent is coming around as they finished 9-8 and 8-9 with one playoff berth, but there is still a huge looming question as to whether or not Anthony Richardson can be the long-term solution at quarterback.

Jacksonville Jaguars: B, C, C-, B-, C+
When a franchise is struggling, it’s reassuring to see potential help on the horizon, and in the NFL, that help can come from many sources, with the draft being a significant one. Unfortunately for Jacksonville, who hasn’t received a draft grade of better than B since 2016, that source has not been the answer. According to SI, the Jaguars continued to flounder in that area this past weekend, scoring a grade of B for the talent they added. More than likely, any improvement this team makes in 2025 will come from the healthy return of QB Trevor Lawrence or the breath of fresh air provided by new head coach Liam Coen.

Kansas City Chiefs: B+, B+, B, A, C+
Kansas City has become the premier franchise in the NFL, and with that comes the “reward” of being the, or one of the, last teams to draft each spring. That naturally has an impact on the level of success a team achieves in the eyes of SI. Still, the Chiefs have put in solid work over the last four drafts, earning a DGPA of 3.4 during that span, more than enough to keep them at the top of the AFC for the foreseeable future. This team has won double-digit games in every season since 2015, and with QB Patrick Mahomes and the rest of the bunch fashioning a chip on their shoulder from a Super Bowl loss, it’s tough to see that streak not continuing.

Las Vegas Raiders: B, B, C+, B+, C
The Raiders are a franchise that seems to receive a little bias from SI analysts; in this case, however, they appear to be wildly against anything they do. Receiving no grades higher than a B in the last nine years seems a little questionable. Of course, having won just 6.4 games per season over the last eight years, maybe SI has it right. This year’s big addition is one that might put fans in the mood for the season with RB Ashton Jeanty, but I’m not sure it moves the potential improvement needle much. If anything, the change to a veteran head coach in Pete Carroll and an experienced quarterback in Geno Smith will have a bigger impact.

Los Angeles Chargers: C+, A-, C, B-, A-
The Chargers’ first draft with Jim Harbaugh as their new head coach was a big one, given an A- grade by SI. The team responded by winning 11 games, an improvement of six wins from 2023. Unfortunately, the follow-up draft fell short in the eyes of the experts, receiving a grade of C+. The key addition is a big running back in Omarion Hampton out of North Carolina, although that didn’t seem to be a big need, other than perhaps covering for injury issues. This team was very good defensively last season, so spending four of their first six picks on offense made sense for the Chargers. How will year two in the Harbaugh era shape up with opponents now familiar with his ways?

Los Angeles Rams: C, A, B, B, B
The Rams have certainly not been afraid to move a lot of pieces around on the board in recent years, and it certainly has paid dividends, as this franchise has finished .500 or better in all but one season since 2017. This year’s biggest offseason move involved replacing WR Cooper Kupp with Davante Adams. I wouldn’t expect a massive improvement from that, nor from the draft, where the team received a grade of C for their work this past weekend. That was actually their worst draft grade since 2017. Was it a hiccup or a sign that this team has reached a plateau?

Miami Dolphins: C+, C+, D+, C, A-
According to the experts at SI, the Dolphins should be in football purgatory by now, as they’ve received just one draft grade of better than B- since 2020. However, they continue to play fairly well in spite of that, having gone 47-37 on the field in that same time frame. Miami’s drafts over the last four years have received a DGPA of 1.98, among the worst in the NFL. Clearly, there have been some misses along the way by SI, as players like QB Tua Tagovailo, RB De’Von Achane, and DT Zach Sieler have proven to be better than advertised on draft day.

Minnesota Vikings: B+, C+, B, D-, B+
The 2022 Vikings had the worst evaluated draft class of any team since 2016. No matter, they simply went out and won 13 games, improving by five wins over 2021. They fell back to earth in 2023, going 7-10, but then rebounded quickly to 14-3 even after moving on from long-time QB Kirk Cousins. You can only pull that off when you make solid personnel decisions, both in the draft and through trades/free agency. This year’s team again switches gears at quarterback with JJ McCarthy of Michigan, last year’s 10th pick in the draft, expected to take over the sport’s key position. This year’s draft class received a positive grade of B+, albeit a slight one. The key for 2025, however, rests in McCarthy taking over for Sam Darnold, who had a huge year for Minnesota in 2024.

New England Patriots: A-, A-, B-, B-, B
New head coach Mike Vrabel could be on his way to quickly turning around the Patriots’ fortunes, as his team’s last two drafts have been highly regarded. This year’s class scored a second straight A- grade, and was highlighted by four offensive player selections in the first three rounds. That has to be considered a positive for a unit that scored just 17 PPG but showed consistent improvement as rookie QB Drake Maye became more comfortable in the position. Vrabel is a well-known defensive mind by trade, so any improvements made on offense should only help. In my opinion, the last two draft classes and the upgrade to Vrabel are reasons for optimism in Foxboro.

New Orleans Saints: C, B, B, C, C
The Saints have long been one of the league’s top teams in terms of winning games despite their draft success perception. That said, they haven’t had a draft class graded better than a B since 2019, and it seems to be finally catching up to them. The 2020 season was the last time the franchise won double-digit games, so they are looking for a fresh start under new head coach Kellen Moore. The current draft class, graded a C by SI, features a potential future QB in Tyler Shough in the second round, but the SI experts feel that New Orleans reached with its first-round selection of OT Kelvin Banks out of Texas. Moore has a sizeable job to do after a 5-12 campaign.

New York Giants: A+, C+, B+, A-, B+
In watching the draft on TV this past week, you could already feel that the Giants were “winning” the proceedings, landing LB Abdul Carter and QB Jaxson Dart in the first round and then DT Darius Alexander and RB Cam Skattebo a bit later. Therefore, I wasn’t surprised to see the A+ grade assigned to their work by SI. Can it have a big impact already in 2025 for head coach Brian Daboll’s club? I think most of that depends upon the quarterback position, whether that answer comes from newly acquired Russell Wilson or Dart. In my opinion, the strong draft class and the potentially major upgrade at quarterback put this team in a prime position to make a big jump.

New York Jets: B+, A-, B-, A, B+
I’m fairly certain that if anyone in the Jets franchise could have a do-over from two years ago at this time, they would seize it. In the grand scheme of things, the two-year Aaron Rodgers era in New York will be looked back on as an unmitigated disaster. New York completely mortgaged itself and its future plans to build around the future Hall-of-Fame QB. Unfortunately, an Achilles injury one year followed by a season of unsatisfying play was all that was left to show for it. They even fired a once highly respected coach of the future in Robert Saleh. Now, for 2025, fortunately, they can lean on back-to-back solidly graded draft classes and the signing of QB Justin Fields, who has supposedly looked great in the offseason. Still, new head coach Aaron Glenn inherited a mess.

Philadelphia Eagles: B, B-, A+, A+, B-
The Eagles are the only team in my nine-year log of draft results to score back-to-back A+ seasons. They did that in 2022 and 2023. It is inarguable that the strength of those drafts played a big role in Philadelphia capturing a Super Bowl title this past February. Many of the biggest names from that title team were found in those drafts. Can the defending champs make it two in a row this winter? Well, there are some hurdles to overcome, first being the loss of former offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, who worked magic with what could have been a tough situation after bringing in RB Saquon Barkley last spring. Second, the last two drafts weren’t judged nearly as highly as those back-to-back benchmark classes. Both challenges can be overcome by this talent collection.

Pittsburgh Steelers: A, A, A, A-, C+
I’m starting to wonder if someone from SI either lives in Pittsburgh or grew up a Steelers fan. Four straight A-level grades? That is a first for the last decade for any franchise. Yet, this team remains at the same general level in the AFC standings and is generally overwhelmed come playoff time. The grade this year is the first one I would question, especially since Pittsburgh was in dire need of adding a starting quarterback. I’m not sure Will Howard, their sixth-round selection, is the answer there. Perhaps they have a plan B in motion somewhere else for that key position. In any case, with as much supposed young talent that the Steelers have added over the last four drafts, a solid QB should be all they need to ascend to the top, right?!

San Francisco 49ers: D, B, C+, B, A-
The 49ers took back-to-back A-level graded draft classes in 2020 and 2021 and went 35-16 in the three seasons that followed. Unfortunately, the window of opportunity that adding that young group to an already talented roster offered may be closing. If it hasn’t already. There are still doubters of QB Brock Purdy, who is at a point of commanding a huge chunk of the 49ers’ payroll. Any major money that goes to him would take away from another key spot. Plus, the recent draft classes, including this year’s D-graded group, haven’t been at nearly the high level prior.

Seattle Seahawks: A, C+, A-, C+, B-
Seattle had a lot of draft capital this year and used it to pick 11 players to add to the roster. That group received an A grade from the experts at SI. That is only one of the reasons Seahawks fans should be optimistic for 2025. Another notable signing was that of QB Sam Darnold, who, if he performs at the level he did for the Vikings this past season, will give this team a major boost. Plus, it’s not like all these additions are joining a team that won 4-5 games. Seattle was 10-7 in the first season under rookie head coach Mike Macdonald. With two A-grade drafts in the last three years, this franchise is laying the foundation for lasting success.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: A-, B+, C+, B-, B-
In the three seasons with Tom Brady under center, it seemed that Tampa Bay opted for veteran players over youth, and now two years removed, the team has scored its best draft class grade since Brady’s arrival in 2020. They are also coming off back-to-back division-winning seasons. Admittedly, QB Baker Mayfield’s success in Tampa has not only been unexpected, but also enough to overcome what could have been a long and difficult transition period. He gets two more WR weapons from this year’s draft in Emeka Egbuka from Ohio State and Tez Johnson from Oregon, two of the Big Ten’s best playmakers last year. After scoring 29 PPG last year, this offense looks poised for even bigger numbers in 2025.

Tennessee Titans: B, C-, B+, B+, B+
Getting the #1 pick in the draft is no lock for immediate improvement, and QB Cam Ward didn’t score as nearly the high-level prospect that prior #1’s like Caleb Williams, Trevor Lawrence, or Joe Burrow did. For those three, there has been a complete mixed bag of accomplishments. It is typically what surrounds those top-picked quarterbacks that shapes their fortunes. That’s where the concern comes in for Ward as he joins the Titans. This franchise hasn’t been known for stellar drafts, having not received an A-level grade since prior to 2016. They also come off a 3-14 SU and 2-14-1 ATS season under first-year head coach Brian Callahan, who seemed overwhelmed at times. Patience may be required here.

Washington Commanders: B, A+, C, D, B+
The experts at SI really loved the drafting of QB Jayden Daniels, as he was the featured pick in a class that received a rare A+ grade at this time last year. This past weekend, Washington had only five picks and did average work with them; the feature pick was an OT addition in Josh Conerly of Oregon. Still, the impact that head coach Dan Quinn had on this team in the 2024 season figures to last for a long time, so long as Daniels stays healthy.

Some of what I have uncovered here could help you with the recently released win totals for 2025 at places like DraftKings. I would personally suggest being patient with it; however, I can assure you that the statistical resume information I reveal in the next week or two on VSiN will be more definitive. Regardless, analyzing the draft analysis is always an interesting endeavor.

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Steve Makinen
Steve Makinen
As one of the original founders of StatFox, Steve Makinen has been in the business of sports betting and data analysis for almost 25 years now. In his time in the industry, Steve has worked in a variety of capacities on both sides of the betting counter, from his early days of developing the StatFox business, to almost a decade of oddsmaking consulting for one of the world's leading sportsbooks, to his last seven years as Point Spread Weekly and Analytics Director with VSiN. Steve has always believed that number crunching and handicapping through foundational trends and systems is the secret to success and he shares this data with VSiN readers on a daily basis for all of the major sports.

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