VSiN Analytics MLB Report for Tuesday, August 8

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VSiN Staff
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VSiN Analytics MLB Report for Tuesday, August 8

The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games on Tuesday, August 8, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

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MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Better-rated bullpen teams for today’s action that are NOT favorites of -190 or higher: CINCINNATI, ATLANTA, CHICAGO CUBS, LA DODGERS, MINNESOTA, BALTIMORE, TORONTO, NY YANKEES, TAMPA BAY, SAN FRANCISCO, SEATTLE

AVOID/FADE all better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher

Highly-priced better bullpen teams were just 11-9 this past seven days, and lost another -8.81 units. Now, in games this season through Sunday 8/6 in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher, that team now owns a 195-113 record, but for -64.55 units. This is an R.O.I. of -21%!

System Matches: FADE PHILADELPHIA (GAME 1 AND GAME 2), FADE MILWAUKEE, FADE BOSTON, FADE TEXAS

Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle

When the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team is less than 20, these big favorites have gone just 45-49 for -65.82 units! Even though the R.O.I. on this system is shrinking steadily, for the season, it remains at -70%!

System Matches: FADE PHILADELPHIA (GAME 2), FADE MILWAUKEE, FADE BOSTON

Better bullpen underdog teams have been solid

A frequent and profitable system arises when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings is playing as an underdog (or pick ‘em). After a phenomenal 19-8 (+14.15 units) performance over the last week, moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season are now 264-259 for +67.36 units. The R.O.I. of this angle remains a healthy 12.9%!

System Matches: CINCINNATI, BALTIMORE, SAN FRANCISCO

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks

After an 8-8 (+2.44 units) week, on 2-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup are now 178-174 for -31.08 units, an R.O.I. of -8.8%. After a 6-4 result (+3.74 units), worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks now have a record of 69-84 for -17.51 units. The R.O.I. on that system continues to produce at -11.4%.

System Matches:

2-game – FADE PITTSBURGH

3+ game – FADE WASHINGTON, FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks

When looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend 3-game winning streaks, I have tracked that these teams have gone 170-110 for +28.5 units, an impressive R.O.I. of 10.2%.

System Matches: MINNESOTA, BALTIMORE, TORONTO, TEXAS, SEATTLE

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks

Updating the results since 7/31 of when on 2-game losing streaks, the teams with better SM bullpen ratings in a matchup have gone 173-132 for +9.94 units. Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 84-56 for +18.13 units. The R.O.I. on this system remains 13%.

System Matches:

2-game – LA DODGERS, NY YANKEES

3+ game – ATLANTA

 

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game

Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1427-1334 (51.7%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -169.88 units. This represents an R.O.I. of -6.2%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.

System Matches: FADE LA DODGERS, FADE MINNESOTA, FADE NY METS, FADE MILWAUKEE, FADE HOUSTON, FADE TAMPA BAY

ROAD TEAMS that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing

You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1282-1675 (43.4%) for -165.79 units and an R.O.I. of -5.6% since the start of the 2019 season.

System Matches: FADE MIAMI, FADE CHICAGO CUBS, FADE KANSAS CITY, FADE COLORADO, FADE NY YANKEES, FADE ST LOUIS

HOME TEAMS that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing

Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2898-2517 (53.5%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -357.7 units and a R.O.I. of -6.6%.

System Matches: FADE CINCINNATI, FADE PITTSBURGH, FADE NY METS, FADE BOSTON, FADE MILWAUKEE, FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX, FADE TAMPA BAY, FADE PHILADELPHIA

Watch for HOME TEAMS that didn’t record an extra-base hit

HOME TEAMS that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 399-324 (55.2%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +38.97 units, for an R.O.I. of 5.4%.

System Match: CLEVELAND

 

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Losing Streak Betting System #3:

Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 13-15 (+6.82 units, ROI: 24.4%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 49-111 (-46.6 units, ROI: -29.1%) since the start of the 2021 season.

System Match: FADE LA ANGELS

Losing Streak Betting System #5:

Teams that have lost their last four games but are playing on the road in a competitive line scenario (+130 to -300) have been wildly successful in snapping their skids, 61-46 outright (+9.48 units, ROI: 8.86%).

System Match: MIAMI

Losing Streak Betting System #6:

Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 119-97 run (+46.55 units, ROI: 21.6%).

System Match: ARIZONA, MIAMI

Losing Streak Betting System #7:

The matchup most likely to find a team ending a 4-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 88-83 (+19.61 units, ROI: 11.5%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.

System Match: MIAMI

Winning Streak Betting System #1:

Teams on winning streaks of five games or more are on a 150-72 (+20.9 units, ROI: 9.4%) run in the next game when playing as home favorites.

System Match: SEATTLE

Winning Streak Betting System #5:

Teams that have won their last four games but are playing on the road as large underdogs (+140 or more) have struggled, going 13-38 (-13.5 units, ROI: -26.5%) in their last 51 tries.

System Match: FADE WASHINGTON

 

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:

System Matches: WASHINGTON x2 (+70 in GAME 1, +29 in GAME 2), CINCINNATI (+22), CLEVELAND (+23), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+17)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:

System Matches: ATLANTA (+17), LA DODGERS (+40), SEATTLE (+19)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:

System Matches: HOUSTON-BALTIMORE OVER 8 (+1.0), TORONTO-CLEVELAND OVER 8 (+0.7), NY YANKEES-CHICAGO WHITE SOX OVER 9 (+0.6), TEXAS-OAKLAND OVER 7.5 (+1.0)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:

System Matches: ATLANTA-PITTSBURGH UNDER 10 (-0.7), ST LOUIS-TAMPA BAY UNDER 8.5 (-0.5), SAN FRANCISCO-LA ANGELS UNDER 9 (-0.9)

 

MLB Top Situational Trend Spots

The following situational trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.>>See situational records for each team.

(901) WASHINGTON (49-63) at (902) PHILADELPHIA (61-51) (DH GAME 1)

Trend: Season series tied at 3-3 (ROAD team is 4-2)

Trend: Washington better bet on the ROAD (27-29, +17.01 units)

System Match: WASHINGTON

Trend: Washington plays better during the DAY (25-24, +14.70 units)

System Match: WASHINGTON

Trend: Philadelphia good during the DAY (29-18, +6.25 units)

System Match: PHILADELPHIA

 

(931) WASHINGTON (49-63) at (932) PHILADELPHIA (61-51) (DH GAME 2)

Trend: Washington better bet on the ROAD (27-29, +17.01 units)

System Match: WASHINGTON

Trend: Washington not good at NIGHT (24-39, -2.50 units)

System Match: FADE WASHINGTON

Trend: Philadelphia not as good at NIGHT (32-33, -10.78 units)

System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA

 

(903) MIAMI (58-56) at (904) CINCINNATI (60-55)

Trend: Miami not great against NL competition (35-41, -11.69 units)

System Match: FADE MIAMI

Trend: Miami good as ML favorite (39-22, +7.96 units)

System Match: MIAMI

Trend: Miami trending UNDER in non-NL East games (33-46 O/U)

System Match: UNDER

Trend: Cincinnati pretty good against NL East/West (29-23, +9.23 units)

System Match: CINCINNATI

Trend: Cincinnati better at NIGHT (37-30, +13.55 units)

System Match: CINCINNATI

Trend: Cincinnati trending OVER at NIGHT (38-28 O/U)

System Match: OVER

 

(905) ATLANTA (70-40) at (906) PITTSBURGH (51-61)

Trend: Atlanta dominant against NL competition (47-20, +14.30 units)

System Match: ATLANTA

Trend: Atlanta trending OVER in NIGHT games (40-29 O/U)

System Match: OVER

Trend: Pittsburgh pretty good against NL East/West (24-21, +10.45 units)

System Match: PITTSBURGH

Trend: Pittsburgh trending OVER in NIGHT games (36-25 O/U)

System Match: OVER

 

(907) CHICAGO-NL (58-55) at (908) NEW YORK-NL (51-61)

Trend: NYM bad bet as ML underdog (8-24, -15.60 units)

System Match: FADE NY METS

Trend: NYM not good against NL Central/West (21-27, -15.35 units)

System Match: FADE NY METS

Trend: NYM trending UNDER at HOME (16-31 O/U)

System Match: UNDER

 

(909) COLORADO (44-68) at (910) MILWAUKEE (61-53)

Trend: Colorado better against LH starters (17-19, +5.15 units)

System Match: COLORADO

Trend: Milwaukee not as good against LH starters (16-18, -5.90 units)

System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE

 

(911) LOS ANGELES-NL (65-46) at (912) ARIZONA (57-56)

Trend: LAD better against RH starters (49-28, +9.20 units)

System Match: LA DODGERS

Trend: LAD good at NIGHT (49-27, +7.90 units)

System Match: LA DODGERS

Trend: Arizona better at NIGHT (37-31, +8.14 units)

System Match: ARIZONA

 

(913) MINNESOTA (60-54) at (914) DETROIT (49-63)

Trend: Minnesota good record against division (22-15, -2.85 units)

System Match: MINNESOTA

Trend: Detroit trending OVER in NIGHT games (33-22 O/U)

System Match: OVER

 

(915) HOUSTON (64-49) at (916) BALTIMORE (70-42)

Trend: Houston good on the ROAD (33-24, +6.41 units)

System Match: HOUSTON

Trend: Baltimore good against AL competition (52-28, +24.14 units)

System Match: BALTIMORE

Trend: Baltimore best team in MLB as ML underdog (29-20, +16.04 units)

System Match: BALTIMORE

 

(917) TORONTO (64-50) at (918) CLEVELAND (54-59)

Trend: Toronto UNDER in NIGHT games (22-39 O/U)

System Match: UNDER

Trend: Cleveland not as good against LH starters (17-23, -15.05 units)

System Match: FADE CLEVELAND

 

(919) KANSAS CITY (36-78) at (920) BOSTON (58-54)

Trend: Kansas City bad bet at NIGHT (19-50, -22.95 units)

System Match: FADE KANSAS CITY

Trend: Boston good against AL Central/West teams (24-18, +12.50 units)

System Match: BOSTON

 

(921) NEW YORK-AL (58-55) at (922) CHICAGO-AL (46-68)

Trend: NYY not as good in NIGHT games (31-41, -16.67 units)

System Match: FADE NY YANKEES

Trend: Chicago bad against AL East/West (16-33, -17.69 units)

System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX

 

(923) TEXAS (67-46) at (924) OAKLAND (32-81)

Trend: Texas trending UNDER in ROAD games (23-29 O/U)

System Match: UNDER

Trend: Oakland trending UNDER in division games (13-19 O/U)

System Match: UNDER

 

(925) ST LOUIS (49-64) at (926) TAMPA BAY (68-46)

Trend: St Louis bad at NIGHT (26-44, -29.02 units)

System Match: FADE ST LOUIS

Trend: St Louis trending UNDER on the ROAD (23-29 O/U)

System Match: UNDER

Trend: Tampa Bay good at HOME (37-19, +6.95 units)

System Match: TAMPA BAY

Trend: Tampa Bay trending OVER at HOME (33-22 O/U)

System Match: OVER

 

(927) SAN FRANCISCO (62-51) at (928) LOS ANGELES-AL (56-58)

Trend: San Francisco good bet at NIGHT (38-24, +9.80 units)

System Match: SAN FRANCISCO

Trend: San Francisco trending UNDER at NIGHT (23-37 O/U)

System Match: UNDER

Trend: LAA bad against LH starters (11-18, -13.95 units)

System Match: FADE LA ANGELS

Trend: LAA not as good against NL teams (14-21, -12.20 units)

System Match: FADE LA ANGELS

Trend: LAA trending UNDER against NL opponents (14-19 O/U)

System Match: UNDER

 

(929) SAN DIEGO (55-58) at (930) SEATTLE (60-52)

Trend: San Diego not good against RH starters (33-41, -25.59 units)

System Match: FADE SAN DIEGO

Trend: San Diego better against AL competition (19-13, +0.30 units)

System Match: SAN DIEGO

Trend: Seattle trending OVER in NIGHT games (39-32 O/U)

System Match: OVER

 

Top Head-to-Head Series Trends

The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled 20 MLB second-half series with notable head-to-head trends.

Series #7: Chicago Cubs at NY Mets, Mon 8/7-Wed 8/9

Trend: NY METS are 2-6 (25%, -10.6 units) in their last eight games vs. Chicago Cubs

The R.O.I. on this trend is -132.5%.

System Match: FADE NY METS

Series #8: Colorado at Milwaukee, Mon 8/7-Wed 8/9

Trend: HOME TEAMS are 12-2 (85.7%, +10.7 units) in the last 14 games between Colorado & Milwaukee

The R.O.I. on this trend is 76.4%.

System Match: MILWAUKEE

Series #9: Atlanta at Pittsburgh, Mon 8/7-Thu 8/10

Trend: Pittsburgh is 1-8 (11.1%, -5.40 units) in last nine games vs. Atlanta

The R.O.I. on this trend is -60%.

System Matches: FADE PITTSBURGH

 

Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

SAN DIEGO 

LETDOWN after series vs. LA DODGERS: 14-15 (48.3%) -6.65 units, ROI: -22.9%         

Next betting opportunity: Tuesday 8/8 at Seattle

System Match: FADE SAN DIEGO

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