VSiN Analytics NFL Preseason Report for Week 2
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NFL preseason games of WEEK 2. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s NFLPS board.
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Note: lines cited were those as of Tuesday 8/15 5 PM ET via DraftKings
NFL Preseason systematic betting concepts
The following systems were from the article NFL preseason betting concepts for 2023 posted the day before the NFL Hall of Fame Game. (More systems available in Weeks 2 and 3.)
1. Line ranges have proven very telling
Oddsmakers have essentially led bettors to water in the preseason, although it is easy to see how these prices can seem tricky to bettors. Since 2010, 11 teams have been favored by more than seven points. Eight of these heavy favorites won their games outright, however, they were 3-8 ATS. At the same time, favorites in the “sweet spot” range of -3.5 to -7 have been quite reliable, going 134-104-4 ATS for 56.3% (Last week they went 4-4 ATS). Most games, however, tend to land in the -1 to -3 range, and those contests are where the underdogs THRIVE. Since 2015, underdogs in the +1 to +3 range own a highly profitable record of 154-105 ATS (last week they went 5-3 ATS), good for 59.5%!
System Match(es):
Favorites more than -7: FADE KANSAS CITY, FADE SEATTLE
Favorites -3.5 to -7 (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, ATLANTA, JACKSONVILLE, INDIANAPOLIS, DENVER, LAS VEGAS
Underdogs +1 to +3 (PLAY ALL): CAROLINA, MIAMI, BUFFALO, TAMPA BAY, NEW ENGLAND, MINNESOTA, LA CHARGERS, WASHINGTON
2. Home-field advantage usually means very little in tight-lined games
In looking at the home/road results of the last 11 NFL preseasons, there have been only two years in which home teams finished with a record of better than .500 ATS, including last year, the most profitable at 28-17 ATS. If you’re simply guessing on these games, or wagering them for fun, side with the road teams as the points given to hosts by oddsmakers for their “home-field advantage” tend to tip the ATS ledger to the visitors. In fact, since 2011, road teams own a 352-314 ATS edge (last week they went 9-7 ATS), good for 52.9%, and essentially enough to make a reasonable profit. However, the absolute best time to back road teams is in spots where they are underdogs of 2.5 points or less, as they have gone 72-36 ATS as such since 2015 (last week they went 3-1 ATS), good for 66.7%!
System Matches:
Road Underdog of 2.5 points or less (PLAY BOTH): BUFFALO, TAMPA BAY
3. “37” is a magic number for totals
Since 2010 in the NFL preseason, the number 37 has proved to be quite the benchmark in terms of totals. Totals less than 37 have gone Over at a rate of 58.6% (275-194) (last week they went 6-2), while those 37 or higher have gone Under at a 56.9% clip (516-391) (last week they went 4-4). Take away the regular occurrence of Unders in the HOF game and that first trend is even greater.
System Match(es):
Totals >=37 (PLAY UNDER): ALL GAMES CURRENTLY HAVE A TOTAL >= 37
4. Big wins have a carryover effect
NFL teams coming off preseason wins of 20+ points and favored are on a 21-5 SU and 16-8-2 ATS (66.7%) surge since 2013. Most bettors tend to favor a yin-yang strategy in the preseason, assuming that the scales balance out, but in truth, big wins have provided big momentum for the next game as well.
System Matches (PLAY BOTH): NY JETS, LAS VEGAS
5. Teams off double-digit losses are bad bets at home, good on road
Double-digit games are noteworthy as indicators of the potential performance of the losing team in the follow-up game. When these teams have played at home the following week, they have gone just 33-46 ATS (41.8%) since 2013. When they faced their next game on the road, they have performed well, 46-38 ATS (54.8%) in that same time span. This 13% variance is something you are going to want to give consideration to in the final two weeks of this year’s preseason.
System Match(es):
DD-Loss LG Teams now playing at HOME (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA, LA RAMS, SAN FRANCISCO
DD-Loss LG Teams now playing on the ROAD (PLAY ALL): NEW ENGLAND, CINCINNATI, MIAMI, TAMPA BAY, CAROLINA
6. Teams that scored very well last game tend to come back to earth
Offensive outbursts one week don’t tend to carry over to the next game in the preseason as teams that scored 34 points or more in their previous exhibition game have gone just 10-14 SU and 9-14-1 ATS (39.1%) since ’15 (also 15-9 Under). None of these 24 teams reached 30 again either.
System Match(es):
Teams that scored 34+ LG (SLIGHT FADE ALL): GREEN BAY, LA CHARGERS, LAS VEGAS
LEAN UNDER: NE-GB, NO-LAC, LVR-LAR
7. Teams that didn’t score well at all are good Over bets the next game
Struggling offenses tend to bounce back well in the next outing of the preseason as teams that were held to fewer than 10 points in their previous preseason game have gone 73-55-1 Over the total (57%) in next game since ’10. These teams average 20.2 PPG in the next game, while giving up 21.0.
System Match(es):
PLAY OVER: NE-GB, MIA-HOU, CAR-NYG, DEN-SF
8. Fade HOME teams that had huge defensive efforts last time out
Teams playing at home after allowing seven points or fewer in their previous preseason game are just 18-27 SU and 15-28-2 ATS (34.9%) since ’10. Their average points allowed in the follow-up game balloons to 20.5 PPG, a lofty total by preseason standards.
System Match(es): FADE NY JETS, FADE ATLANTA
This week’s NFLPS Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN WEEKLY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com.
This week’s Top UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections
Ratings Matches: 1. ARIZONA +7.5 (+5.0) 2. LA RAMS +3.5 (+4.8) 3. SAN FRANCISCO +4 (+3.9) 4. CHICAGO +3.5 (+3.6)
This week’s Top UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PITTSBURGH -2.5 (+1.9) 2. HOUSTON -3 (+1.5) 3. NY JETS -2 (+0.9) 4. GREEN BAY -3 (+0.8) 5. BALTIMORE -3 (+0.3)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHICAGO +3.5 (+3.9) 2. ARIZONA +7.5 (+3.8) 3. SAN FRANCISCO +4 (+3.6) 4. TAMPA BAY +2 (+2.7) 5. CLEVELAND +3.5 (+2.6)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NY GIANTS -3 (+2.3) 2. PITTSBURGH -2.5 (+1.9) 3. TENNESSEE -2 (+1.6) 4. NEW ORLEANS -3 (+0.7) 5. SEATTLE -7 (+0.4)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CAR-NYG OVER 39 (+2.7) 2. TB-NYJ OVER 37 (+2.6) 3. CLE-PHI OVER 38 (+2.4) 4. JAX-DET OVER 39.5 (+1.8) 5. BUF-PIT OVER 40.5 (+1.5)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TEN-MIN UNDER 37.5 (-2.2) 2. CIN-ATL UNDER 38.5 (-1.1) 3. DEN-SF UNDER 38.5 (-0.8) 4. NE-GB UNDER 37 (-0.5) 5. KC-ARI UNDER 40 (-0.2)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LA RAMS +3.5 (+4.3) 2 (tie). ARIZONA +7.5 (+4.0) and SAN FRANCISCO +4 (+4.0) 4. CHICAGO +3.5 (+3.1) 5. MINNESOTA +2 (+2.8)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BALTIMORE -3 (+2.7) 2. SEATTLE -7 (+1.4) 3(tie). PITTSBURGH -2.5 (+1.3) and GREEN BAY -3 (+1.3) 5. NEW ORLEANS -3 (+0.2)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NE-GB OVER 37 (+4.3) 2. LVR-LAR OVER 39.5 (+3.3) 3. DEN-SF OVER 38.5 (+3.2) 4. TB-NYJ OVER 37 (+3.1) 5. BAL-WAS OVER 38.5 (+2.4)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches (only two this week): 1 (tie). CIN-ATL UNDER 38.5 (-0.3) and MIA-HOU UNDER 39.5 (-0.3)
Top NFLPS Team Situational Trends
These are some of the top situational trends that have developed with teams in recent years of preseason action:
Overall Trends
– ATLANTA is on a 5-17 SU & ATS skid in the preseason
Trend Match: FADE ATLANTA (-6.5 vs CINCINNATI)
– BALTIMORE has won 24 straight preseason games and is 24-5-1 ATS in the last 30
Trend Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (-3 @ WASHINGTON)
– BUFFALO is on an 11-1 SU an ATS surge in the preseason
Trend Match: PLAY BUFFALO (+2.5 @ PITTSBURGH)
– DALLAS is 8-22-3 ATS in its last 33 preseason games
Trend Match: FADE DALLAS (+7 @ SEATTLE)
– DENVER is 11-2 UNDER the total in its last 13 preseason games
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER (o/u 38.5 @ SAN FRANCISCO)
– DETROIT has won just three of its last 17 preseason games outright, allowing 25.4 PPG, and is 4-11-1 ATS in its last 16
Trend Match: FADE DETROIT (+4 vs JACKSONVILLE)
– LAS VEGAS is on an impressive 11-3 SU and ATS preseason surge
Trend Match: PLAY LAS VEGAS (-3.5 @ LA RAMS)
– MIAMI has gone 8-4 SU and 9-3 ATS in its last 12 preseason games
Trend Match: PLAY MIAMI (+3 @ HOUSTON)
– NEW ORLEANS has gone 16-5-1 UNDER the total in its last 22 preseason games
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER (o/u 37.5 @ LA CHARGERS)
– The NY JETS have been solid, going 7-1-1 SU and 7-2 ATS in their last nine preseason games
Trend Match: PLAY NY JETS (-2 vs TAMPA BAY)
– PHILADELPHIA has gone 3-12-1 SU and 4-11-1 ATS in last 16 preseason games
Trend Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA (-3.5 vs CLEVELAND)
– WASHINGTON is just 3-10 SU and ATS in its last 13 preseason games
Trend Match: FADE WASHINGTON (+3 vs BALTIMORE)
Home/Road Trends
– ATLANTA broke a 10-game home ATS losing streak in its final preseason game of ’22
Trend Match: FADE ATLANTA (-6.5 vs CINCINNATI)
– BALTIMORE is on an 11-game road preseason winning streak and is 11-0-1 ATS in its last 12
Trend Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (-3 @ WASHINGTON)
– CHICAGO is on an impressive run on 8-2-1 ATS in last 11 road preseason games
Trend Match: PLAY CHICAGO (+3.5 @ INDIANAPOLIS)
– CINCINNATI has gone 7-1 ATS in its last eight road preseason games
Trend Match: PLAY CINCINNATI (+6.5 @ ATLANTA)
– CLEVELAND boasts an 8-1 SU and ATS mark in its last nine road preseason games
Trend Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (+3.5 @ PHILADELPHIA)
– DALLAS is 1-15 SU and 3-13 ATS on the road in the preseason since 2012
Trend Match: FADE DALLAS (+7 @ SEATTLE)
– DETROIT is 1-7 SU and ATS in its last eight HOME preseason games
Trend Match: FADE DETROIT (+4 vs JACKSONVILLE)
– GREEN BAY is on a 10-2 SU and ATS run at home in the preseason but is 1-7 in its last eight on the road (1-7 SU and 1-6-1 ATS)
Trend Match: PLAY GREEN BAY (-3 vs NEW ENGLAND)
– NEW ENGLAND is 11-4 UNDER the total in its last 15 preseason road affairs
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER (o/u 37 @ GREEN BAY)
– SEATTLE is on a 9-1 UNDER the total run in home preseason games
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER (o/u 40.5 vs DALLAS)
– WASHINGTON has lost its last six home preseason games ATS
Trend Match: FADE WASHINGTON (+3 vs BALTIMORE)
Off SU Win/Loss Trends
– CAROLINA is on 11-2 SU and 10-2-1 ATS run in its last 13 preseason games after a loss the week prior but 2-9 ATS in its last 11 following a win
Trend Match: PLAY CAROLINA (+3 @ NY GIANTS)
– DALLAS is 4-14-2 ATS in the last 20 preseason games after a loss
Trend Match: FADE DALLAS (+7 @ SEATTLE)
– The LA RAMS’ last seven preseason losses were followed by an Under on totals
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER (o/u 38.5 vs LAS VEGAS)
– NEW ORLEANS has gone Under the total in the last eight games after a preseason win
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER (o/u 37.5 @ LA CHARGERS)
– SEATTLE is 13-3 SU and 12-4 ATS in its last 16 preseason games following a win the week prior
Trend Match: PLAY SEATTLE (-7 vs DALLAS)
Favorite/Underdog Trends
– BUFFALO is on a 9-1 SU and ATS surge as a preseason underdog
Trend Match: PLAY BUFFALO (+2.5 @ PITTSBURGH)
– CHICAGO is 13-3 ATS since ’15 as a preseason underdog but 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 as chalk
Trend Match: PLAY CHICAGO (+3.5 @ INDIANAPOLIS)
– CINCINNATI is on a 7-2 ATS surge as a preseason underdog
Trend Match: PLAY CINCINNATI (+6.5 @ ATLANTA)
– CLEVELAND is 11-3-1 ATS since ’12 as a preseason underdog
Trend Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (+3.5 @ PHILADELPHIA)
– DENVER is 11-2 Under the total in its last 13 as a preseason favorite, allowing just 11.8 PPG
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER (o/u 38.5 @ SAN FRANCISCO)
– JACKSONVILLE is just 4-9 SU and ATS in its last 12 when laying points in the preseason
Trend Match: FADE JACKSONVILLE (-4 @ DETROIT)
– NEW ENGLAND is 9-1 UNDER the total in its last 10 as preseason underdog
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER (o/u 37 @ GREEN BAY)
– NY GIANTS are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 as preseason underdogs but 1-8 ATS last nine as favorites
Trend Match: FADE NY GIANTS (-3 vs CAROLINA)
– SAN FRANCISCO is on a 5-0-1 ATS streak as a preseason underdog
Trend Match: PLAY SAN FRANCISCO (+4 vs DENVER)
– WASHINGTON is 1-7 SU in its last eight as a preseason underdog while going 2-6 ATS
Trend Match: FADE WASHINGTON (+3 vs BALTIMORE)
Top NFLPS Head-to-Head Series Trends
These are the top head-to-head series trends between teams from recent years’ preseason action:
Aug. 19 – DENVER at SAN FRANCISCO
* ROAD TEAMS are on a 6-1 SU and ATS run in the DEN-SF NFLPS series since ’12
System Match: PLAY DENVER
Aug. 20 – NEW ORLEANS at LA CHARGERS
* NEW ORLEANS is on a 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS run vs. LA Chargers in the preseason
System Match: PLAY NEW ORLEANS
