VSiN Analytics NFL Report for the Divisional Round

The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NFL games of the Divisional Round. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s NFL board.

Strategies Using NFL DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published in the 2023 NFL Betting Guide Part 2, Steve Makinen outlined 12 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of Wednesday. These can AND WILL change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage.

 

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Now, here are the DK Betting Splits NFL Systems and their updated performance records:

NFL DK Betting Splits system #1: Over the past 1-1/2 seasons, when more than 65% of the handle has been on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group is just 61-81 ATS (42.9%). The number for this supermajority in college football was closer to 80%. In other words, if you see 2/3 of the handle backing one side in an NFL game this season, it’s best to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT, BUFFALO

NFL DK Betting Splits system #2: The percentage breakdown can be expanded a bit for the number of bets. When 63%+ of the number of bets were on a particular side of an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone 112-132 ATS (45.9%). Although these bettors are over .500 for the 2023 season, I’m still leaving this system on as I believe they will return to norms down the stretch. The NFL is the most public of all bet-able sports, if 63%+ of the bettors at DraftKings likes a particular side, I would still feel comfortable to fade em’.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON, GREEN BAY

NFL DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority handle and the number of bets were on road underdogs for an ATS wager, these majority groups have actually produced adequate records, 33-34 ATS (49.3%) and 46-43 ATS (51.5%) respectively going back to September 2022. This matches up somewhat with the logic I used in explaining some college successes. When the public goes “against the grain,” they can at least maintain.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): HOUSTON, GREEN BAY

NFL DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle and the number of bets have backed a team in an ATS wager in the higher-profile, non-Sunday afternoon games over the last 1-1/2 seasons, these majority groups are just 42-56 ATS (42.9%) & 42-56 ATS (42.9%) respectively. This set of games includes all the Thursday, Saturday, Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night contests.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON, GREEN BAY, BUFFALO

NFL DK Betting Splits system #8: In another rare winning record, when the majority of the handle has backed the team with fewer season wins in a 2022 or 2023 NFL game for an ATS wager, this majority group is 38-29 ATS (60.3%). This is proving to be another situation where going against the grain pays off.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON, GREEN BAY

DK Betting Splits system #10: When 56% or more of the handle has been on the Under in an NFL game total over the last 1-1/2 season, this majority group has been quite sharp, 45-29 ATS (60.8%). This number for a supermajority in the NFL is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total. Incidentally, the same majority figure for the number of bets has also produced a 35-22 (61.4%) record.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NONE AS OF WEDNESDAY

DK Betting Splits system #11: Quite the opposite of #10, the magic mark for a supermajority on the handle for betting Overs was 64% or higher, and this group has performed miserably in 2022 & 2023 with a record of 55-93 (37.2%). To me, this has been a long-standing belief, but when the Over looks too obvious, it usually loses. On the number of bets, this same supermajority percentage produced a slightly improved 59-77 (43.4%) record.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): GB-SF, TB-DET

DK Betting Splits system #12: Call this one the Over trap, but when a supermajority (>=64%) of the handle has been on the Over, but DraftKings moved the opening total lower throughout the week, this majority group has lost big, going just 19-46 (29.2%) over the past 1-1/2 seasons. Almost as if they were trying to bait more people into taking the Over. This is a classic example of those behind the counter being smarter than those trying to cash the tickets.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NONE AS OF WEDNESDAY

NFL Rookie/Re-Trend Coaching Systems

This material is from the VSiN piece entitled Analyzing the New NFL Head Coaches for 2023 detailing systems that apply to rookie coach DeMeco Ryans (Houston).

Rookie Coach System

Among the key challenges new head coaches face is keeping teams grounded after wins, as they’ve gone 145-162-10 ATS (47.2%) in that situation.
System Match: FADE HOUSTON (+9.5 at BAL)

NFL Rookie Quarterback Systems

These systems take into account rookie quarterback records in their first seasons. They include game logs of any rookie that started seven or more games in that first season.

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #1 – Rookie quarterbacks are trending downward
Earlier, I indicated winning percentages of 40.9% straight up and 50.4% ATS for rookie quarterbacks since 2004. The results of late are far worse. Since the start of the 2013 season, rookie quarterbacks who started at least seven games in a season are just 160-296-2 SU (35.1%) and 209-245-4 ATS (46%).
System Match: FADE HOUSTON (+9.5 at BAL)

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #2 – Rookie quarterbacks are a risky bet in the postseason
In their last 14 playoff games, rookie quarterbacks are just 5-10 SU and ATS (33.3%). Take away Joe Flacco’s 2009 run and the record drops to 3-9 SU and ATS, including 2-8 in their last 10.
System Match: FADE HOUSTON (+9.5 at BAL)

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #6 – Don’t fall for the big underdog point spreads with rookie quarterbacks
Since 2004, rookie starting quarterbacks facing underdog lines of seven points or more have won just 27 games, going 29-169 SU and 81-108-9 ATS (42.9%).
System Match: FADE HOUSTON (+9.5 at BAL)

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #11 – Non-Sunday games have been a respite for rookie QBs
Rookie quarterbacks have fared reasonably well under the spotlight of non-Sunday games lately, going 15-14 SU but 21-8 ATS (72.4%) in their last 29 such tries. Moreover, they are 18-5-1 ATS (78.3%) in their last 24 Monday contests.
System Match: PLAY HOUSTON (+9.5 at BAL)

NFL Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NFL games and detail the results of the follow-up game for these teams.

NO QUALIFYING EXTREME STATS SYSTEMS THIS WEEK

NFL Streaks Provide Some Advantages for Bettors

The following betting systems were part of an article released in Week 8 of the NFL season focusing on winning and losing streaks. There were 15 different systems cited. These listed are the ones that have qualifying plays for this week’s action.

NFL Streaks Betting System #5: NFL teams that have won their last four games outright while outscoring opponents by fewer than 30 total points in that span have gone 56-13 SU and 46-21-2 ATS (68.7%) in the next game when favored.
System Match: PLAY BUFFALO (-2.5 vs KC)

Handicapping NFL Rematch Games

The following trends and betting systems come from same-season rematch data over the last 12 seasons

Best NFL rematch teams lately
Detroit: 13-3 ATS run in rematches
System Match: PLAY DETROIT (-6.5 vs TB)

Best NFL home rematch teams lately
Buffalo: 16-4 SU and 12-8 ATS in the last 20 home rematches, scoring 30.0 PPG
System Match: PLAY BUFFALO (-2.5 vs KC)

Worst NFL home rematch teams lately
Baltimore: 5-20 ATS in the last 25 rematch home games
System Match: FADE BALTIMORE (-9.5 vs HOU)

Worst NFL road rematch teams lately
Houston: 5-7 SU and 4-8 ATS in the last 12 road rematches
System Match: FADE HOUSTON (+9.5 at BAL)

High-scoring rematch teams
Kansas City: 13-10 Over run
System Match: PLAY OVER in KC-BUF (o/u at 45)

This Week’s NFL Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

This week’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TAMPA BAY +6.5 (+0.3)

This week’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BUFFALO -2.5 (+1.5), 2. BALTIMORE -9.5 (+1.4), 3. SAN FRANCISCO -9.5 (+0.1)

This week’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TAMPA BAY +6.5 (+1.0), 2. HOUSTON +9.5 (+0.6)

This week’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAN FRANCISCO -9.5 (+2.0), 2. BUFFALO -2.5 (+0.2)

This week’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: HOU-BAL OVER 43.5 (+2.0)

This week’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TB-DET UNDER 48.5 (-1.7), 2. GB-SF UNDER 50.5 (-1.1), 3. KC-BUF UNDER 45 (-0.6)

This week’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOUSTON +9.5 (+1.9), 2. TAMPA BAY +6.5 (+1.5)

This week’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAN FRANCISCO -9.5 (+1.6), 2. BUFFALO -2.5 (+1.2)

This week’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOU-BAL OVER 43.5 (+3.2), 2. KC-BUF OVER 45 (+0.3)

This week’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TB-DET UNDER 48.5 (-1.2), 2. GB-SF UNDER 50.5 (-0.6)

Here are 19 top betting trends detailing various quarterback performance records in situations as a starter:

* Patrick Mahomes (KC) is 8-2 SU and 10-0 ATS (100%) as a road/neutral underdog. The average line was +2.9, Team average PF: 36.6
System Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY (+2.5 at BUF)

* Jared Goff (DET) is 24-23 SU but 32-15 ATS (68.1%) with current head coach Dan Campbell. The average line was +2.2, Team average PF: 23.8
System Match: PLAY DETROIT (-6.5 vs TB)

These are some of the top situational trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action:

Saturday, January 20, 2024

(301) HOUSTON at (302) BALTIMORE

* HOUSTON is 11-32 ATS on the road since 2000 versus opponents with more than 6 days rest (0-2 ATS this season)

* BALTIMORE is 10-0 ATS in the last 10 games against decent passing teams (5-0 ATS this season)

* BALTIMORE is 7-0 ATS in the last seven games with an OU line of 45 or more (5-0 ATS this season)

System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE ATS

* HOUSTON is 7-0 to the Under in the last seven games at Baltimore (1-0 to Under this season) and HOUSTON is 11-3-1 to the Under in the last 15 games after a blowout SU win (3-0 to Under this season)

* BALTIMORE is 10-0 to the Under in the last 10 January games (1-0 to Under this season)

System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(303) GREEN BAY at (304) SAN FRANCISCO

* GREEN BAY is 22-7-1 ATS in the last 30 road games with less than six days rest (1-0 ATS this season)

* SAN FRANCISCO is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 January home games (0-1 this season, but they rested starters)

* SAN FRANCISCO is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 home games against lesser rushing defenses (3-1 ATS this season)

System Match: 2 PLAYs on SAN FRANCISCO, 1 PLAY on GREEN BAY

* GREEN BAY is 7-0 to the Over on the road against NFC opponents this season

* SAN FRANCISCO is 6-1 to the Over against teams with a winning record this season

System Match: PLAY OVER the total

Sunday, January 21, 2024

(315) TAMPA BAY at (316) DETROIT

* TAMPA BAY is 1-13-1 ATS in the last 15 games against solid rushing defenses (1-4 ATS this season)

* TAMPA BAY is 6-0 ATS on the road this season against NFC opponents

* DETROIT is 13-2 ATS in the last 15 games against fortunate teams

System Match: 1 PLAY on DETROIT, 1 PLAY/FADE on TAMPA BAY

* TAMPA BAY is 7-0 to the Under this season against teams with a winning record

* DETROIT is 12-3 to the Over in the last 15 games against lesser passing defenses (4-0 to Over this season)

System Match: 1 PLAY on OVER, 1 PLAY on UNDER

(317) KANSAS CITY at (318) BUFFALO

* KANSAS CITY is 12-3 ATS in the last 15 on the road against decent passing defenses (1-0 ATS this season)

* BUFFALO is 6-0-1 ATS in the last seven at home against shutdown passing defenses (2-0 ATS this season)

System Match: 1 PLAY on KANSAS CITY, 1 PLAY on BUFFALO

* KANSAS CITY is 13-2 to the Under in the last 15 games with an OU line of 45 or more (10-1 to Under this season)

* BUFFALO is 11-4 to the Under in the last 15 games as a favorite of seven or less points (5-1 to Under this season)

System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

These are the top head-to-head series trends between teams from recent years’ action:

Saturday, January 20, 2024

(301) HOUSTON at (302) BALTIMORE
* All seven prior games of the HOU-BAL series in Baltimore went Under the total
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(303) GREEN BAY at (304) SAN FRANCISCO
* Over the total is 6-2 in the last eight games of the GB-SF series at San Francisco
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

Sunday, January 21, 2024

(315) TAMPA BAY at (316) DETROIT
* Road teams are on 8-1 ATS run in the last nine games of the TB-DET series
System Match: PLAY TAMPA BAY ATS

(317) KANSAS CITY at (318) BUFFALO
* Road teams are on an 11-4 ATS run in the KC-BUF series dating back to ’08
System Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY ATS

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