VSiN Analytics Report for Week 7
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NFL games of Week 7. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s NFL board.
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Strategies using NFL DraftKings Betting Splits data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the Betting Splits pages. These pages we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, moneylines, and totals. In an article published in the 2023 NFL Betting Guide Part 2, Steve Makinen outlined 12 systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data developed in the 2022 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of Wednesday. These can AND WILL change, so continue to track and qualify the systems until kickoff for best usage.
DK Betting Splits system #1: When more than 65% of the handle was on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group was just 35-53 ATS (39.8%). The number for this supermajority in college football was closer to 80%. In other words, if you see 2/3 of the handle backing one side in an NFL game this season, it’s best to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BUFFALO, DETROIT, CLEVELAND, TAMPA BAY, LA RAMS, SAN FRANCISCO
DK Betting Splits system #2: The percentage breakdown can be slightly expanded for the number of bets. When 63%+ of the number of bets were on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group was just 66-92 ATS (41.8%). The NFL is the most public of all bet-able sports. If 63%+ of the bettors at DraftKings likes a particular side, fade ‘em.
It’s safe to assume you don’t want to be part of the supermajority of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers.
System Matches (FADE ALL): JACKSONVILLE, BUFFALO, DETROIT, CLEVELAND, WASHINGTON, LAS VEGAS, TAMPA BAY, LA RAMS, GREEN BAY, SAN FRANCISCO
DraftKings bettors were at their absolute worst last season when analyzing divisional games:
DK Betting Splits system #3: In NFL divisional games of 2022, DK majority handle bettors were absolutely awful, as this majority group was just 36-64 ATS (36%). With the obvious generality that public bettors love favorites, it’s clear that they don’t’ value the stakes of these rivalry games and what they mean for the competitors.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BUFFALO, NY GIANTS, TAMPA BAY, ARIZONA, KANSAS CITY
DK Betting Splits system #4: Similarly to #3 above, when the majority number of bets staked its side in an NFL divisional game last year, this majority group was just 37-60 ATS (38.1%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): BUFFALO, WASHINGTON, TAMPA BAY, SEATTLE, KANSAS CITY
DK Betting Splits system #5: When the majority handle and the number of bets were on road favorites for an ATS wager, these majority groups were just 36-52 ATS (40.9%) & 35-53 ATS (39.8%), respectively. Both are losing propositions, and most often, these majorities match up.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BUFFALO, CLEVELAND, LAS VEGAS, GREEN BAY, SAN FRANCISCO
DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority handle and number of bets were on road underdogs for an ATS wager, these majority groups actually produced winning records, 26-25 ATS (51%) and 34-32 ATS (51.5%) respectively. This matches somewhat with the logic I used to explain some college successes. When the public goes “against the grain,” they win. In this case, mildly.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): DETROIT
DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle and number of bets backed a team in an ATS wager in the higher-profile, non-Sunday afternoon games, these majority groups were just 28-44 ATS (38.9%) and 29-44 ATS (39.7%) respectively. This set of games includes all the Thursday, Saturday, Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night contests.
System Matches (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO
DK Betting Splits system #8: In another rare winning record, when the majority of the handle backed the team with fewer season wins in a 2022 NFL game for an ATS wager, this majority group was 26-22 ATS (54.2%). This is another situation when going against the grain paid off.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): NEW ORLEANS, NY GIANTS, ARIZONA
DK Betting Splits system #10: When 56% or more of the handle was on the Under in an NFL game total, this majority group was quite sharp, 26-18 ATS (59.1%). This number for a supermajority in the NFL is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total. Incidentally, the same majority figure for the number of bets produced a 23-17 record.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): JAX-NO, BUF-NE, DET-BAL, CLE-IND, WAS-NYG, LVR-CHI, ATL-TB, ARI-SEA, GB-DEN, LAC-KC
DK Betting Splits system #11: Quite the opposite of #11, the magic mark for a supermajority on the handle for betting Overs was 64% or higher, and this group performed miserably last season with a record of 38-63 (37.6%). This has been a long-standing belief to me, but when the Over looks too obvious, it usually loses. On the number of bets, this same supermajority percentage produced a slightly improved 41-52 record.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): PIT-LAR, SF-MIN
DK Betting Splits system #12: Call this one the Over trap, but when a super-majority (>=64%) of handle was on the Over, and DraftKings moved the opening total lower throughout the week, this majority group lost big, going just 9-29 (23.7%). Almost as if they were trying to bait more people into taking the Over. This is a classic example of those behind the counter being smarter than those trying to cash the tickets.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): SF-MIN
NFL Rookie/Re-Trend Coaching Systems
This material is from the VSiN piece entitled Analyzing the New NFL Head Coaches for 2023 detailing systems that apply to rookie coaches Jonathan Gannon (Arizona), DeMeco Ryans (Houston), Shane Steichen (Indianapolis), as well as re-tread coaches Sean Payton (Denver) and Frank Reich (Carolina).
Rookie Coach Systems
In a trend that seems to make sense as far as familiarity is concerned, the more familiar the opponent, the less successful rookie head coaches have been. Divisional games 123-137-7 ATS (47.3%), These are not groundbreaking betting numbers by any means, but it could serve as a foundational concept that the more familiar the opponent, the less successful the rookie coach.
System Matches: FADE ARIZONA
Rookie head coaches have shown a tendency to start and finish their first season most successfully when it comes to covering point spreads. Since 2013, in Games #5-#12, they’ve gone 160-181-9 ATS (46.9%). Think of these trends when you see the schedules of the six rookie head coaches in 2023 released shortly.
System Matches: FADE INDIANAPOLIS, FADE ARIZONA
Rookie Coach Systems
Like the rookie head coaches, re-tread head coaches have been far more proficient at covering point spreads on the road over the last decade. In fact, their record in home games – 79-119 ATS (39.9%).
System Matches: FADE DENVER
Re-tread head coaches have shown a tendency to start very slow at their new franchises and finish their first seasons more successfully when it comes to covering point spreads. Since 2013, in Weeks #1-#10 of their first seasons, they’ve combined to go 89-143-7 ATS (38.4%),
System Matches: FADE DENVER
There seems to be a noteworthy trend of momentum that comes with these re-tread head coaches. Since 2013, when coming off a loss, the record has been just 94-133-8 ATS (41.4%).
System Matches: FADE DENVER
NFL rookie quarterback systems
These systems take into account rookie quarterback records in their first seasons. They include game logs of any rookie who started seven or more games in that first season. The starters out of the gate in ’23 include Bryce Young (Carolina), CJ Stroud (Houston), and Anthony Richardson (Indianapolis), although others could join them down the road.
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #10 – Losses have tended to snowball for rookie QBs
In their last 102 starts with their teams coming off outright losses, rookie QBs have gone just 34-76-1 SU and 46-64-1 ATS (41.8%). This trend dates back to 2018.
System Matches: FADE CHICAGO (+3 vs. Las Vegas)
NFL Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NFL games and detail the results of the follow-up game for these teams.
NO QUALIFYING EXTREME STATS PLAYS THIS WEEK
TNF, SNF and MNF Team Trends and Systems for the NFL
The following trends and systems come from a log of all the Thursday night (TNF), Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night (MNF) games since the start of the 2019 season. Only Thursday night games were included in the TNF study, not the day games played on Thanksgiving. The Sunday night games only included those played on Sunday night, not all of the games covered by the NBC SNF crew, including some Wednesday and Saturday contests. The games analyzed were only regular-season games.
THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
