VSiN help desk: Answering your biggest Super Bowl LVI questions

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Just want to put a few dollars down on the Super Bowl, but don’t know where to begin? Looking to hedge a futures bet?

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We’re asking all VSiN listeners and subscribers to submit their Super Bowl LVI betting questions here. We’ll get them answered by one of our experts before the Big Game kicks off.

(Adam’s note: We’ve gotten tons of questions about hedging, including the two that follow. Here is an entire article about hedging Bengals or Rams Super Bowl futures that I recommend all of those with a futures ticket read.)

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I have a ticket on the Rams to win the Super Bowl at 12-1. What would be the smartest way to hedge? Bengals points? Bengals money line? – Pat M.

I am fortunate enough to have a futures ticket on the Rams to win it all at 15-1.  I would like to lock in some profit and was thinking about putting a hedge bet on Cincy %plussign% 4.5.  This would give me a nice chance at a middle if the Rams win but don’t cover.  What do you think? – Joe L.

Adam Burke: How to hedge is one of the most difficult questions to answer because it all depends on your personal situation. Would you consider your initial bet amount to be a lot of money relative to your bankroll? Is the win amount a big score for you? What is your personal level of risk tolerance? Basically, how much do you want to “gamble” on the outcome?

With the favorite at a good number in both of these examples, there are four options: let it ride, hedge with Bengals ML, hedge with Bengals plus the points or wait for an in-game opportunity.

In this instance, I would decide what the bare minimum is that you want to win. For example, if you have $100 at the Rams to win $1200, do you set the minimum winnings at $500? That would require betting $550 to win $500 on the Bengals %plussign% 4.5 or betting roughly $300 on Cincinnati at %plussign% 165 (or the best moneyline you can find).

Waiting for an in-game hedge is risky because the Bengals could jump out 10-0 or 14-0 and not really give you a chance. On the flip side, the Rams might jump out early and you may not have had to hedge at all.

So, it’s up to you. Given that the Bengals could lose and still cover the 4.5, my route would be to bet Cincinnati on the spread to my minimum desired win amount, but there are multiple options at your disposal.

For more detailed thoughts on hedging Super Bowl LVI futures, click the link.

William Hill: Since most people betting the underdog in the Super Bowl bet the moneyline, you don’t get the same bang for your buck going that route. Let’s assume the 12-1 is bet is for $100 to use round numbers, I would say put something like $440 on Bengals %plussign% 4 (if you can find a 4.5) so you’re still weighted more on the side of the Rams winning (the side you originally liked anyway). This also gives you a chance to scoop, and collect wins on both bets.

I have a $25 ticket on the Bengals to win the Super Bowl at 125-1. How would you hedge? I placed the wager on July 17. – Tim S.

Youmans: You can win more than $3,000 and you are going to make a decent profit if you hedge even a small amount. How confident are you in the Bengals? I would probably hedge at least $1,000 on the Rams moneyline so you either win around $500 if the Rams win or more than $2,000 if the Bengals win the game. If you’re not so confident in Cincinnati, hedge a little more.

What do you think about teasing a side and a total? – Joe S.

Burke: As a general rule, teasing totals is not a profitable course of action. There are way too many high-variance outcomes with totals. Sides are a little bit more predictable because of the final scores that are available and the equity of crossing over key numbers like 3 and 7. While there are key numbers with totals, they are not nearly as significant as the numbers on the spread.

Many bettors would say to never tease totals and I tend to agree with that logic.

Steve Makinen: Looking back at the 54 past Super Bowls in terms of 6-point teaser trends, FAVORITES are 35-19 (64.8%) while UNDERDOGS are 36-17-1 (67.9%), relatively close performance marks. Note that the ’82 game was a pick em’ point spread so no favorite or underdog was measured. However, in the L20 seasons, there has been a big separation as FAVORITES are just 10-10 (50%) while UNDERDOGS are 17-3 (85%).

* In terms of the two different conferences, AFC teams are 35-19-1 (64.8%) and NFC teams are 38-17 (69.1%) in the history of the Super Bowl game on 6-point teaser bets.

* Concerning Super Bowl totals, in the 54 games that had posted numbers, OVER is 36-18 (66.7%) and UNDER is 36-17-1 (67.9%) on 6-point teasers.

Scott Seidenberg: I know a lot of people will tell you that there is no value is teasing a total, they will say the 6 points rarely comes into play and juice is not worth the squeeze. To them, I say, who cares. As Brent says, it’s all about Cashing Tickets, Baby! If you are comfortable with the juice on a teaser, and you want to get the extra points on a side and the only option is pairing with a total then so be it. Me personally, I’m on the over 48.5 in the SB, would I feel more comfortable if that number was 42.5? Absolutely.

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I have a $25 ticket on the Bengals to win the Super Bowl at 125-1. How would you hedge? I placed the wager on July 17. – Tim S.

Mitch Moss: As Adam alluded to, every single person is different with hedging. If you’re dead set on locking in a profit, then I would wait until Sunday to fire on the Rams ML. I suggest waiting because the public bets the Super Bowl the same way almost every year: They won’t bother with betting the Bengals and the points, they’ll simply bet Cincinnati on the ML for a higher return. That will drive the price on the Rams down the closer we get to kickoff.

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With the Rams playing in their own home stadium, are the sportsbooks giving the home-field advantage credit in the 4.5-point spread? – James K.

Burke: I would say yes, but not the full amount. Home-field advantage has dwindled in the NFL in recent years as a whole. It is no longer the three points that it used to be; it’s probably more like two points. My guess here is that the oddsmakers have given the Rams a half-point or one point at the absolute most.

There are no travel concerns because there are two weeks off before the game. The crowd will lean more towards the Rams, given the exorbitant ticket prices in the secondary market, but it won’t be the hostile environment that teams are accustomed to when they play road games. So, I do believe there is some sort of HFA incorporated into the line, but a fraction of what it typically is.

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Which kicker is more reliable on opening kickoff touchbacks? Is there a stat for both kickers’ percentages? – Russell M.

Burke: Per Pro-Football-Reference, Matt Gay (LAR) had 65 touchbacks on 102 kickoffs (63.7 percent) and Evan McPherson (CIN) had 55 touchbacks on 91 kickoffs (60.4 percent).

Among kickers with at least 50 kickoffs, Gay’s percentage ranked 10th and McPherson’s ranked 14th.

As Gill Alexander referenced on A Numbers Game on Monday, the opening kickoff ball is different. It is kicked once and then taken out of play to be preserved in the Pro Football Hall of Fame. In fact, 26 of the last 28 opening kickoffs in the Super Bowl have NOT been a touchback.

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— VSiN (@VSiNLive) February 11, 2022

Why do Mitch and Pauly say to never tease through the number zero? Do you lose value? – Todd B.

Burke: The goal with a teaser is to acquire as many numbers as possible where the final score could land. For example, the optimal teaser is to cross through 3 and 7, like taking a team that is %plussign% 1.5 up to %plussign% 7.5. NFL games are plenty capable of landing on a final score difference of 3, 4, 6 or 7 and a 6-point teaser through that corridor acquires a lot of potentially good numbers.

Zero is not a good number. You basically turn a 6-point teaser into a 5-point teaser because you are getting an irrelevant number. That is especially true of a playoff game that can’t end in a tie. You’re still paying the same vig on a 6-point teaser, but only getting 5 points out of it. Zero carries no value whatsoever.

(As an aside, there have been five games total that have ended in a tie since the start of the 2017 season and only 10 since the start of the 2012 season.)

I’m trying to learn how to read line movements between “sharp” books and “square” books. If I’m watching this line go from 4 to 4.5 between multiple books, how do I know where sharps are if Circa is at 4.5 but Bovada is at 4? – Dustin A.

Dave Tuley: I know a lot of people talk about the “sharp” side or the “square” side, including on our own network, but not every game is “Pros vs Joes.” Most games will have sharps on both sides, the key is that true pros almost always get the best of the number.

For instance, when some books opened the Los Angeles -3.5, the sharp bettors recognized that the line wasn’t going to go any lower and jumped in right away. Pros also bet the Rams from -4 to -4.5, but you won’t find a sharp on Rams -4.5. Some books reported last week that 70 percent of the tickets were on the Bengals at %plussign% 4.5. That percentage certainly indicates that it was public money that caused some books like offshore Bovada (long known as a square shop) to drop to 4 and others like William Hill to dip to 4 before getting bet back up; however, it wasn’t truly a square move as there are plenty of sharps that grabbed the %plussign% 4.5, since they thought that was the best line they would get on the underdog.

A lot of sharps that like the Rams aren’t even getting involved in the regular point spread as they’re hoping to bet L.A. on the money line at the lowest price possible. The Rams are mostly -200 on the ML, with the South Point at -195. I’m sure you’ve heard VSiN hosts and oddsmaker guests talk about how the Super Bowl is almost always bet with the public laying the points with the favorite and betting the underdog on the money line. This usually leads to the money line on the favorite dropping as we get closer to game day. Some have predicted that the Rams could get down to -180 or even -175 to win straight up. I’m a little skeptical of that with the money being split so far, but we’ll see how things progress during the week to see if those sharps get what they want.

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What is your opinion on parlaying props? – Joe S.

Burke: The level of risk in betting any parlay is high because you are usually going to have nothing for show for your ticket. The more props you add to a parlay, the less likely you are to win anything for it.

Think about it – the break-even percentage at the standard -110 vig is 52.38%, so you have to win effectively 53 out of every 100 bets to show a profit. As you start adding things to a parlay, the odds get longer and longer. Simplifying the math a bit to make it easier to understand, your implied probability of winning is roughly cut in half with each leg you add to a parlay. The payout odds don’t go up accordingly in light of the increased risk.

So, personally, I don’t like to parlay props and don’t like to bet a lot of parlays in general. The idea of winning five out of six bets (or something comparable) and winning zero dollars for it doesn’t sit well with me.

There have been bettors that have gotten fortunate and cashed their “lottery ticket” parlays with props. If you are betting micro stakes on these long-shot tickets every now and then, there is nothing wrong with that. If you are betting big amounts in hopes of hitting a massive jackpot, you are better off betting the props individually to try and show a profit if you win more of them than you lose.

Matt Youmans: I rarely recommend parlays, but there are times when it’s OK. If you can find two or three correlated props and are allowed to parlay those, go for it. Also, there’s nothing wrong with making some entertainment bets on this game. You don’t have to bet like a blood-thirsty professional 100 percent of the time. The Super Bowl is a time when you can make a few exceptions to the rule.

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Is there a quick guide to the fields in the Player Prop Analyzer?  I’m assuming when looking at last 8 games, if it says under Record “7-1 UN” that means 7 of the last 8 have gone under the total? Does the profit reflect if you bet it that way, or is the profit if you had bet the over each time? – Corey Y.

Burke: Reading left to right, let’s go over the Player Prop Analyzer from a screenshot taken on Tuesday morning at 10:45 a.m. PT looking at Receiving Yards:

Under “Receiving Yards”

DK = Current DraftKings line

ML = Current vig and whether or not it is shaded to the over (OV) or under (UN)

Under “Odds by DraftKings Sportsbook”

Record = Record based on the line for each individual week

Profit = Profit for betting on the more frequent outcome (so that’s betting the Over on Cooper Kupp in every game; betting the Under on Joe Mixon every game, etc.)

ROI = Return on Investment for a $100 bettor

Under “Statistics”

G = Games Played

Avg = Average yards per game

L = Lowest number of yards across the number of games played

H = Highest number of yards across the number of games played

Under “Record vs. Current DK Prop”

Record = How player would have done against current line on far left

Pct = “Win” percentage based on more frequent outcome (Kupp went Over the current DK line 65 percent of the time; Mixon went Under the current DK line 57.9 percent of the time)

These same things apply when looking at Last 3, Last 8, Postseason, etc.

If you ever have any questions about our other betting tools and resources, don’t hesitate to reach out.

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Regarding a prop bet on the MGM app for the opening kickoff. The bet reads “What will be the outcome of the opening kickoff?” The 2 options are: Touchback and Return Attempt.  Do you think MGM would grade this “no action” if the opening kick goes out of bounds for a penalty since as neither option would have occurred? – Chuck H.

Burke: The best course of action here is to ask somebody for clarity on the grading of the prop before making your wager. I wouldn’t even want to speculate as to how they’d handle a kick out of bounds.

However, this is a great general question for all prop bettors to think about. If the wording on a bet seems vague or there are potential questions for the grading, just reach out to customer service. This is especially true of anybody betting into the offshore prop market. Some bets will be left up to the “Manager’s Discretion” and that is probably not a bet you want to risk because you have no way of knowing how it will be graded.

If there won’t be a definitive answer, it might be best to stay away from that wager. In the case of a prop like this, you can find Opening Kickoff props at just about any sportsbook and it may be better to wager on it somewhere else.

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I see the Bengals are listed as the “Home” team for the Super Bowl. Will the Rams be forced to use the visitors locker room and stand on the other side of the field than they are used to? Could play a little “mind” game with the Rams! – Tom A.

Burke: The Bengals are indeed the “home” team because it alternates every year. However, the Rams will be in their own locker room and on the home sideline, per Arash Markazi on Twitter.

Home-field advantage with the crowd, though, could be another story!

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Have the Bengals done anything to improve the offensive line? – Bernie F.

Burke: One would hope that with an entire week’s worth of extra prep time, and time to get healthy, that they’ve done something schematically to improve. But, obviously, the personnel has not changed.

It is one of the big stories of this game and could be a reason why the Rams took early money. Sharper bettors tend to weigh the battle in the trenches a lot more than the average bettor.

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Do prop bets on SB pay the same (odds) as side and total? – David H.

Burke: All bets pay out based on the juice, which is the minus (-) or plus (%plussign%) number after the line itself. If the spread is Rams -4 (-115), you’ll win $1 for every $1.15 you wager. If a given prop is Cam Akers Over/Under 62.5 Rushing Yards (-110), you’ll win $1 for every $1.10 you wager.

Generally speaking, sides and totals will have -110 vig, though that can and will change, depending on the betting action the books are receiving. Some props will be -110. Others will be higher or lower. Some, like MVP, will have players that are %plussign% 600 or %plussign% 1200, where you’ll win $6 for every $1 wagered or $12 for every $1 wagered.

All bets – sides, totals, props, moneylines, etc. – are simply based on the vig.

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With the proliferation of going for 2 point conversions and PATs being more frequently missed, how have point spread key numbers changed?  What are the new top five key numbers for point spreads? – John

Burke: 3 and 7 are still the biggest key numbers, as games are still falling on those two most often. 3 and 7 are actually happening more often since 2015, interestingly enough. Of the single-digit numbers, 6, 5 and 4 are next in line. The biggest changes have been with 5 and 6, as 4 has fallen with less frequency.

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So, I’m going to run up to Caesars casino in Chicago to activate my account because of a sign-on bonus and they have the best odds on Cooper Kupp at %plussign% 700 to win SB MVP.  What in your opinion is the best way to hedge a decent-sized bet like this? (I’ll lay a decent amount of Joe Burrow at %plussign% 200 maybe at a different book to start.) – Jacob

Tuley: This isn’t a hedge situation like the term is usually used in sports betting. Normally you would say you’re hedging against a future-book ticket and either trying to lock in a profit if it doesn’t come through or minimizing risk in some way. In your case, if you’re betting other players, those are really just new independent bets (especially if betting Burrow) and there are many other players that could win and lose 100 percent of all your wagers (which doesn’t happen when you’re hedging). The closest thing to what I believe you’re trying to do (trying to project that Kupp will get the honor in the event of a Rams victory) would be to bet Matthew Stafford to win MVP because he’s the most likely to get it if Kupp has the game you’re expecting.

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I bet $50 on Rams preseason at %plussign% 1500 to win the super bowl. How should I hedge to maximize my profits for either outcome? I was considering $150 on Bengals moneyline and Burrow MVP at %plussign% 225. What should I do? – Calvin D. 

Burke: As stated above, I can’t tell anybody exactly what to do with their futures (for a number of reasons), but here’s how this strategy looks for those in a similar boat. I’m assuming this means $150 on each of Bengals ML and Burrow MVP.

$50 at 15/1 = $750

$150 on %plussign% 170 (shop around for best price!) = $255

$150 on %plussign% 225 (shop around!) = $337.50

The worst-case scenario is that you only make $55 if the Bengals win and Burrow is not the MVP. The best-case scenario is Bengals Burrow for just under $550.

The one thing to keep in mind about hedging is that you have to look at your initial investment differently. You’re now at $350 to win $750 on the Rams with the hedge, as you’ll surrender $300 on Burrow/Bengals if they don’t win.

Your view may vary on this hedge, but it does guarantee profit all around and the chances of the Bengals winning the Super Bowl without Burrow as the MVP is very small.

Here’s more on hedging Super Bowl futures.

Youmans: You can win $750 on the Rams, but I would play the Bengals %plussign% 4.5 for about half your bet amount and you could win both ways. Or, as you mention, also put a smaller bet on Joe Burrow to be MVP at %plussign% 250 because it’s hard to envision a scenario in which the Bengals win and it’s not Burrow to be MVP.

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I am in a pub squares pool. I am wondering; with the emergence of sports book square pools where you can choose your numbers/squares . . . is there a hedge opportunity? Whether you get a great square 7,4,3,1,0 or conversely a terrible draw of 2,5,6,8? Is there a strategy to pull a profit out on either side? – John B.

Dave Tuley: There’s really no way to guarantee a profit as there are too many combinations that would have to be bought, especially if you have so-called bad numbers. Having said that, I think there are a few cases where you can certainly increase your chances of hitting. For instance, if you have Rams 7, Bengals 0 and really think there’s a good chance that the first quarter could end that way, you could buy Rams 6, Bengals 0 (%plussign% 2250 at Circa) in case the Rams score a TD but miss the PAT. You could also take Rams 7, Bengals 3 (%plussign% 825 at Circa) in case the Bengals manage a FG. Conversely, if you have Rams 7, Bengals 3, you could take Rams 7, Bengals 0 (%plussign% 400 at Circa) in case the Bengals don’t get a FG, As you can start to see, if you start buying up more and more scenarios you could paint yourself into a corner. I liken it to those roulette players that spread their chips all over the layout. Even after they hit a number, you know they barely even broke even as the dealers gather up all their losing chips. You don’t want to be that guy, so be careful out there.

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I feel the game may come down to in-game management. Which team do you think has an advantage here? – Andy G.

Burke: This is an excellent question. One of the big reasons why I opted for Bengals %plussign% 4.5 is because of concerns about how Sean McVay may handle the game with a lead in the fourth quarter. His overly conservative approach has the potential to keep Cincinnati in the game.

Something that has stuck with me in the lead-up to the game is that regular Follow The Money guest Adam Chernoff tweeted the night that we knew the Super Bowl matchup about how predictable Zac Taylor is as a play caller and scripter. McVay obviously knows Taylor very well.

The difference may be Bengals DC Lou Anarumo. As I’ve written, Cincinnati was 25th in points allowed per game in the first half and 3rd in points allowed per game in the second half during the regular season. He adjusts well on the fly. With any luck for my bet, he’ll have a good game-plan to start as well.

Many will say that McVay has the advantage being the “teacher” against his “student”. He’s also been in more big games than Taylor. I guess I’d give McVay a modest edge and a bigger edge if he has learned from his mistakes of going into a shell too early.

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I am reading that Darrell Henderson is going to play in the Super Bowl.  Do you think this has a big impact on all of the Akers/Michel props? – Kurt

Burke: I think this is a big deal for Sony Michel, but maybe not as much for Cam Akers, especially with a lot of people betting his prop numbers under. Henderson was officially activated on Friday.

Field Yates tweeted a quote from McVay on Wednesday that said: Rams head coach Sean McVay in today’s pool report on RB Darrell Henderson, Jr. (knee): “I think Darrell’s going to go. So, you’ll have Cam (Akers), Darrell and Sony (Michel). You’ll be able to see a good, three-back rotation, based on how the game unfolds.”

There is a lot of “coachspeak” throughout the season, but the way I interpret this quote is that the depth chart reads Akers, Henderson, Michel. That would suggest to me that Michel is not going to get much work at all. At this point, I’m seriously considering under on attempts and yards for Michel. The fact that Akers immediately usurped Michel when he returned is a sign that McVay has very little belief in him. Henderson’s return seems to push him down the chart again.

Makinen: I have personally opted out the Michel props after hearing this. He was actually one of my favorite options heading into this week as I thought he had a chance to be a bigger part of the game plan than he was against San Francisco. There were times in the last couple months where he carried the load and deserved his share of carries on Sunday. This reminds me a bit of the Gurley situation three years ago when McVay made it completely unpredictable as to how he would use his backs vs. the Patriots. I’m staying away.

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Is it possible to tease 1st half sides and totals?  – Guy

Burke: No. You may find a book that offers alternate lines for 1st half bets, but that would be the closest you would get.

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What would be the reason that Connecticut in-person gambling does not allow Super Bowl coin toss betting? DraftKings also confirmed they don’t offer the bet and did not say why. I have thoughts but can’t find anything on the internet – Paul D.

Burke: The governing bodies for sports betting in each state are able to set policies that define what sportsbooks can offer and what they can’t. Connecticut’s laws restrict certain bets, and apparently the coin toss is one of them.

For example, there are a handful of states, including New Jersey, that restrict betting on college sports featuring teams located in the state. It just depends from state to state.

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What are your overall expectations for the Super Bowl from start to finish? This includes, but not limited to, the start of the game, potential ebb and flows during the four quarters. Finally, individual player performance expectations for both teams. – Kenneth P.

Burke: The performances to date for both teams suggest that the Rams are likely ahead in the first half and that the Bengals will be pretty lively in the second half. As I’ve mentioned, Cincinnati was 25th in points allowed per game in the first half and 3rd in points allowed per game in the second half, so it wouldn’t be terribly surprising to see that play out.

The Rams were 3rd in points allowed per game in the first half and 17th in the second half. If these things hold true to form, it is possible that you might be able to get a really nice in-game spread or moneyline play on the Bengals in the first half or at halftime.

The Rams were 7th in points scored per game in the first half with 13.3 and the Bengals were 12th with 12.6. The teams were about even in the second half, despite McVay’s tendency to get conservative.

History tells us to expect a slow start. Per this tweet from Mitch Moss, we’ve had 14 scoreless first quarters in the Super Bowl, 10 quarters that ende