Washington Commanders 2024 Predictions and Odds:

The Commanders sold off some pieces last season, but they still have talented young players on their defense. And Dan Quinn should be able to help those players maximize their potential. If he can do that quicker than expected, the Commanders should be a competitive team. 

Turning an offense over to a rookie quarterback is always scary, but Jayden Daniels should instantly be one of the most talented players in the league. Sure, there will be a huge learning curve as he enters the NFL, and he won’t have receivers streaking wide open down the field like he did in Baton Rouge. But Daniels is a one-of-a-kind playmaker and should make things happen right off the bat. 

 

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Overall, this should be a better football team than it was in 2023, even if it does finish at the bottom of the NFC East standings. 

Offense

Washington was just 25th in the league in EPA per play last year, and the team was in the bottom half of the NFL in both Dropback EPA per play and Rush EPA per play. With that in mind, the team made the decision to trade Sam Howell, who turned the ball over way too often. The Commanders also used the second pick in the draft on Daniels. 

Last season, Daniels threw for 3,812 yards with 40 touchdowns and only four picks for LSU, and he also rushed for 1,134 yards and 10 scores. Daniels throws a gorgeous deep ball, and he’s also capable of picking up chunk yardage with his legs. And Daniels will have a decent group of pass catchers to work with, as Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson have both showed out with worse quarterbacks. Washington also added Austin Ekeler, who is a superb pass-catching back. 

The Commanders just need better offensive line play this year. Daniels’ ability to extend plays should help, but Howell never had time to throw. And the last thing Washington wants is Daniels taking a beating and losing confidence. 

It’s also going to be interesting to see what Kliff Kingsbury does as offensive coordinator. Daniels’ ability to throw deep should be utilized, but Kingsbury’s offense with the Cardinals featured a lot of short passes and screens. Is he the right fit here? 

Defense

Washington was tied with Arizona for the worst EPA per play allowed in 2023. The team was especially miserable against the pass, as nobody in the league had a higher Dropback EPA per play allowed. Unfortunately, it’s hard to see that changing very much. Perhaps Washington will make some minor improvements, but the team didn’t make big enough moves to address the secondary. Instead, the Commanders will be hoping for a leap from 2023 first-round pick Emmanuel Forbes. They’ll also be looking to 2024 second-round pick Mike Sainristil to make an instant impact. 

Luckily for the Commanders, Quinn is one of the best defensive coaches in the league. He should do a decent job of scheming things up in a way that prevents Washington from being torched over the top. And the Commanders have some talent along the defensive line.

Washington also added Bobby Wagner in the middle of the defense. PFF gave him a grade of 82.4 last year. He’s still playing at a very high level and is a good leader for this young team. 

Outlook

Four NFC East teams, four Overs for me. I know that’s hard to believe, but just look back to 2022. Philadelphia went 14-3, Dallas went 12-5, New York went 9-7-1 and Washington went 8-8-1. I can see something similar happening here. I’m not personally playing this, but it’s certainly the way I’m leaning. I’m high on this division and low on the overall NFC.

Washington Commanders Pick: Over 6.5 Wins 

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