If MVP is the crown, OPOY is the crown jewel for non-quarterbacks.
In recent years, the NFL’s Offensive Player of the Year award has become a playground for skill position studs who get elbowed out of the MVP conversation. It’s the “you got snubbed, but here’s your trophy” trophy.
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This season? We’re calling our shots early – and sharp bettors are circling a few serious sleepers.
Bijan Robinson at +1600: The Best Bet No One’s Talking About (Yet)
Let’s start with Bijan Robinson, whose odds sit at a tantalizing +1600. The case here is stronger than pre-season hype for a rookie QB.
He’s entering the season with more volume, a clearer role, and a team that’s all-in on him. Over the back half of 2024, Bijan averaged nearly five additional touches per game – and Atlanta finally got the memo: this offense runs through him.
Last season, the Falcons had an identity crisis. A QB who couldn’t throw past 15 yards. Conservative play-calling. Close losses. But with Michael Penix Jr. taking over and a healthier offensive line, Atlanta is a 10-win team waiting to happen — and Bijan’s the engine.
You’re not betting on a repeat. You’re betting on a breakout. That’s where value lives.
Why Saquon Barkley at +650 Feels Like Fool’s Gold
Barkley’s odds are short. Too short.
History tells us that peak-season running backs rarely follow up with another historic campaign. Even when guys flirt with 2,000 yards, the next year often brings regression, injuries, or – worse – media fatigue.
So, yeah. Barkley’s a fantasy factor. But OPOY? There’s better juice elsewhere.
The Position Player Rule (And Why QBs Still Get Teased)
Every few years, we get teased with the idea that a QB might swoop in and steal OPOY. Joe Burrow got a late push last year. Lamar Jackson came close.
But here’s the cold, hard stat: Burrow got one first-place vote.
This is still the “Non-QB MVP Award.” It’s a nod to outlier seasons – think Cooper Kupp’s near Triple Crown, or Christian McCaffrey doing his best Madden cheat code impression.
Even those didn’t guarantee a win.
So, sharp bettors? They’re leaning hard into wideouts and running backs. And you should too.
Jamar Chase: A Tempting (But Tricky) Play at +950
Let’s talk Jamar Chase.
He’s a unicorn. But unless he wins the Triple Crown outright (receptions, yards, and TDs), it’s hard to see voters moving him past the Mahomeses and Allens of the world in MVP – and even harder to see him snagging OPOY without it.
Remember: he had a career year last season and still didn’t take it home.
If you’re betting on Chase, you’re betting on historic numbers in a crowded WR room. That’s high risk, high ceiling.
The Sharp Angle: Look for the Rising Stars, Not the Repeat Performers
If there’s a throughline this year, it’s this: don’t bet on last year’s highlight reel.
OPOY voters want new blood. Fresh faces. First-time monsters.
Look for:
- A player yet to hit his peak
- On a team that’s trending upward
- With volume, explosiveness, and narrative juice
Bijan Robinson checks all three boxes. And if Michael Penix Jr. delivers even average QB play? You’ll wish you got in before the odds dropped.
Final Word: This Is Not Just Fantasy
We get it – most OPOY chatter feels like a fantasy football draft gone deep. But this is real money, real awards, and real momentum.
Don’t get distracted by the big names. Get obsessed with trajectory.
So if you’re setting your sights on Offensive Player of the Year? Skip the favorites. Bet the future.
Smart money’s on Bijan.
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