UFC Noche Predictions:
Glendale, Arizona, hosts a salute to the Mexican fighter with its UFC NOCHE fight card. Thirteen bouts are scheduled, with nine fighters of Mexican heritage facing adversaries from around the globe. There are four fighters flying into the States from foreign addresses as well. This card features only three bouts with combatants weighing over 170 pounds where the finishes are most apparent.
Seven of the 13 bouts opened with a line of -250 or greater for the favorite, which I view as unhealthy for the UFC long term, not to mention difficult for the underdog fighter who must walk straight into the fire against a heavily favored combatant.
Favorites continue to win at a 70% clip, which makes uncovering underdogs somewhat rare. Nonetheless, we did find Axel Sola last week who, as a +135 underdog, KO’d Fares Ziam in the first round. We’ll try to parlay our momentum as we hit the last quarter plus of 2026 UFC wagering.
Digital Results stand: 17-14-1 +3.52u*
*Digital readers hold a ticket for Arman Tsarukyan, who was parlayed with Su Mudaerji -215 on a card two weeks ago. We hold Tsarukyan -115 as a net price, while his number currently stands at -350 in his upcoming battle against Mauricio Ruffy (that fight takes place next week at UFC 331).
Jean Silva -450 vs. Jose Delgado +295
Featherweight (145 pounds) main event
This fight was originally booked as Silva against Mexican fighter Yair Rodriguez. However, Rodriguez was forced out of the fight due to ‘injury.’ Phoenician Jose Delgado steps in to take the opportunity.
Delgado arrives at this most challenging but potentially rewarding opportunity on the heels of a terrific showing against a novice in the organization with tremendous wrestling chops, Austin Bashi.
Delgado has won his last two bouts coming into this dynamic step up in class, so the professionals at the MMALab, Delgado’s gym, have their work cut out for them in this fight.
Delgado will hold physical advantages in this matchup. He is four inches taller and a year younger than the barking Brazilian. He’ll also hold arm/leg reach advantages of four inches each.
These physical traits will give Delgado opportunities while the fight remains standing. I expect this fight to be waged on the feet, so while the 15th-ranked Delgado fights all the way up in the ranks to take on the number six-ranked featherweight in Silva, he has the feet, the movement, the Muay Thai/Boxing, and the fight IQ to be able to compete effectively against this Tasmanian devil.
Brazilian Jean Silva is one of the leaders of the red-hot MMA team called the ‘Fighting Nerds.’ These cats wear crooked glasses with white tape on the rims to look odd, but do not mistake these fighters as anything but lethal, world-class killers.
Silva himself is a touch undersized physically, but he overcomes that lack of stature with a rabid attack as soon as the opening bell chimes.
Silva is a Muay Thai-based striker who is incredibly powerful, brilliantly fast, and constantly moving forward, with a single focus: engaging any opponent in a toe-to-toe throwdown. Silva is offensively dynamic, but the defensive aspect of his fighting game is of secondary concern to him.
This can be an issue, as we have seen prior in his fight against Diego Lopes, who he was beating when he charged into a spinning elbow and was knocked out.
Silva lands 4.82 significant strikes per minute, which is high volume, especially considering their effect. The issue for Silva is that he accepts 4.50 significant strikes per minute, which displays his lack of fear in that he’ll walk through an adversary’s strikes in order to try to land a few of his own.
Lastly, Silva can grapple and strike, so if Delgado begins to find Silva with effective strikes, look for the Brazilian to shoot and ground Delgado to remove him from his advantage: striking.
Delgado is no stranger to high power output. His significant strikes landed per minute stands at a whopping 6.07. What makes that number so impressive is that he accepts only 4.18 significant strikes per minute, a stat that highlights his ability to not only power strike at high volume but also evade incoming strikes quite effectively.
Delgado’s wrestling is a forte, so should Silva begin to shoot for the takedown, I look for Delgado to be able to utilize knees and uppercuts to fend him off.
In the days leading up to this fight, while Delgado has been preparing in earnest for the biggest fight of his life, he has found comfort in talking to the press about his chances in this bout.
Delgado’s been mashing into the microphone about how he is going to take advantage of this short-notice opportunity, which is fine, but to color his commentary with cockiness is something that can only motivate his Brazilian adversary.
While I appreciate his confidence, I would offer the young man this advice: Do not poke the sleeping Doberman Pinscher with a sharp stick!
Rather than mumbo-jumbo into a microphone, keep your intentions to yourself and speak loudly on fight night, for there is little good that can come from irritating a world-class mixed martial artist who leaves bodies quivering in his wake.
Delgado is live in this fight
Total in this fight: 1.5 Rds Over -245
Waldo Cortes-Acosta -195 vs. Curtis Blaydes +175
Heavyweight (265 pounds)
Seventh-ranked Dominican Republic heavyweight Waldo Cortes-Acosta arrives to this fight in Phoenix on the bounce.
After winning three straight fights, the former boxer with a blue belt in BJJ got the match he sought against second-ranked Alexander Volkov, but lost via unanimous decision in May. Now he has the opportunity to get back to winning ways if he can defeat 11th-ranked UFC veteran Curtis Blaydes.
Cortes-Acosta is primarily a stand-up power striker who is adding some grappling to his repertoire, while Blaydes is a world-class wrestler/grappler with a purple belt in BJJ who has developed his striking acumen in each fight of his career.
Blaydes, who has competed against the elite of the division for years, comes to this fight off a loss to Josh Hokit back in April at the White House. He will be looking to dominate the Dominican ‘Salsa-boy’ in this fight and regain his previous ranking.
Once this bout begins, I expect Cortes-Acosta to be as outmatched in this matchup as he was in his last against Volkov, because elite heavyweight fighters are few and far between.
I regard Blaydes as world-class, and I do not believe Cortes-Acosta is refined enough for that accolade at this point in his career, especially being as singularly versed in fighting weaponry as he is.
Cortes-Acosta has one way to win this fight, and that’s to bust Blades with a Scud missile.
Blaydes has the striking to set up his power wrestling, which will allow him to transition this fight from standing to the ground, where the Dominican athlete will be completely outmatched. From the ground, Blaydes may then rain ground and pound upon Waldo from top position.
I believe this is an advantageous spot for Curtis Blaydes.
UFC Noche Best Bet: Curtis Blaydes +175
Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds Over -240
Friday midday, the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops across all podcast platforms and on GambLou.com. There, one may access all of my final releases for this Noche fight card. Thank you for reading, and enjoy the fights!
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