Week 10 NFL
Welcome to the Week 10 edition of “TSI vs the Field”, my weekly article where I analyze the NFL slate through the lens of respected predictive models to see where there is the most consensus and the most disagreement, which is valuable in determining which bets to potentially make and which ones to stay away from if the data is mixed. Using my proprietary model, the T Shoe Index, and comparing it to TeamRankings, FPI, and Sagarin, this is a way to find value in the tight NFL betting market.
Here are the biggest model agreements and disagreements in Week 10.
Note: TeamRankings is a popular sports resource website, FPI is the Football Power Index from ESPN Analytics, and Sagarin is Jeff Sagarin, formerly of USA Today.
Note 2: TeamRankings also has the PoolGenius product, a great Survivor and NFL Pick ‘Em resource.
Week 10 NFL Odds Model Alignment
Philadelphia Eagles vs Green Bay Packers (-2.5), O/U 45
Green Bay is coming off an outright loss to the Carolina Panthers, while Philadelphia just destroyed the Giants in their last game before their bye week. The Packers are just 3-5 ATS as a favorite this season (every game) but the Eagles are 5-3 ATS and 3-1 ATS on the road. Situationally, Green Bay losing last week doesn’t make me feel great about fading them, but the numbers are the numbers.
The average model projection on this game is Packers -1, with a variance of just 1.9 points. TSI is the strongest on Green Bay at -2, Sagarin projects a pick ‘em, and both FPI and TeamRankings project Packers -1. So, all four models align on the Eagles +2.5, but again, I don’t love the spot here with a theoretically re-focused Packers team.
NFL Pick: Eagles +2.5
Week 10 NFL Odds Model Disagreement
Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars (-1.5), O/U 37.5
I watched my Texans’ ticket last week go up in flames when CJ Stroud got hurt, and he remains out for this game so Davis Mills will get the start here for Houston. Houston is 3-2 straight up and ATS in their last five, and Jacksonville hasn’t covered a game since October 6th when they miraculously beat the Chiefs.
The average model projection on this game is Texans -3.5, but a variance of 9.1, reflective of perhaps an injury adjustment by FPI, who projects Jacksonville -1.5. TSI projects Houston -1.5, Sagarin has Texans -6 and TeamRankings has Texans -7.5. I think a couple things are at play here: the Stroud injury and the Texans’ beatdown of the Ravens without Lamar Jackson has perhaps inflated the projections on Houston in some of the models (TSI has accounted for that). The market still seems to be pushing towards Houston at this price, so I’m probably going to roll with TSI, but definitely don’t blame you for backing off with so much muddy data and varied projections.
Keep an eye out for this weekly feature on Fridays, my Tuesday NFL best bets, and my Thursday college football model comparison.
