Week 13 NFL Predictions
I think most of the attention of the football-watching world will be on college football this weekend since it’s rivalry week, but this is also a fun week of NFL football tradition with the Thanksgiving Day games after we’ve stuffed our faces and vegetate on the couch for the remainder of the day. For me, it’s also kind of mentally the milestone of the season where you can feel the playoffs on the horizon, while college basketball simultaneously begins ramping up, so be on the lookout for those projections and plays – both men’s and women’s – coming soon from me. But for now, let’s get to this week’s NFL plays from the T Shoe Index:
Editor’s Note: For those unfamiliar with the T Shoe Index, get a full explanation here.
Indianapolis (-4.5) vs Houston, O/U 44.5
TSI has been a huge Texans believer this year, in case you hadn’t noticed how many times we’ve backed them this year. So, when I saw TSI showed value on the red-hot Colts here, I had to jump on it. The market is also agreeing with a Colts play here, as the line offshore is already starting to trend towards 5. TSI projects Indy by 8, and given the home/road splits for these teams, I feel very comfortable in that projection. The Colts are 4-1 ATS at home and 4-3 ATS as a favorite, while Houston is just 1-4 ATS on the road and 1-3 ATS as a dog. The Colts are the TSI #1 offense, scoring over 8 points per game above their opponent’s defensive averages, while Houston is just #21 offensively. Houston does, however, have the #2 TSI defense, holding opponents to 6.6 points below their season averages, while the Colts are middle of the pack in that regard, basically allowing opponents to hit their averages on the nose. In this strength-on-strength matchup, I think I trust the Colts more than the Texans to get it done and win by a touchdown or more.
NFL Pick: Indianapolis Colts -4.5
Chicago vs Philadelphia (-7), O/U 44.5
Chicago has the #30 TSI defense, allowing opponents to score 4.5 more points per game than their season averages. Both offenses in this game also excel from an opponent-adjusted points-per-play standpoint, with both teams exceeding their opponents’ season averages. Furthermore, both offenses are in the top half of the NFL in opponent-adjusted touchdown rate, with Philly being sixth-best in the league in that regard. All that to say, TSI projects 47 points in this game, and my market estimation formula projects 45.5, so we’re clearing this 44.5 with good value, and these are two teams that, based on “vibes” or “gut feel”, I feel comfortable betting an Over with because their offenses are so good. Data and vibes, art and science, everything I’m looking at agrees with this play.
NFL Pick: Over 44.5
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