Week 14 NFL
Welcome to the Week 14 edition of “TSI vs the Field”, my weekly article where I analyze the NFL slate through the lens of respected predictive models to see where there is the most consensus and the most disagreement, which is valuable in determining which bets to potentially make and which ones to stay away from if the data is mixed.
Here are the biggest model agreements and disagreements in Week 14:
Note: TeamRankings is a popular sports resource website, FPI is the Football Power Index from ESPN Analytics, and Sagarin is Jeff Sagarin, formerly of USA Today.
Note 2: TeamRankings also has the PoolGenius product, a great Survivor and NFL Pick ‘Em resource.
Week 14 NFL Odds Model Alignment
Arizona Cardinals vs. LA Rams (-8.5), O/U 47.5
This line has bounced back and forth between 8 and 9 this week, indicating this line is about right; however, the models disagree. LA is atop the TSI ratings now with a power rating of 8.5 points above average, while Arizona sits right at average with a 0.5 rating. Arizona has been rather dreadful ATS at home, going just 1-5, while LA is 3-2 ATS on the road this season. Both teams have been solid in their respective favorite/dog role, with the Rams going 8-3 ATS as favorites and the Cardinals going 5-4 as underdogs. LA is coming off of an outright loss to Carolina as 10-point favorites, but that hasn’t stopped the market from keeping them above a touchdown favorite in this one against a banged-up Cardinals team.
The average model projection on this game is Rams -6.5, with a variance of just 1.6 points. TSI, FPI, and Sagarin all project LA -6, while TeamRankings makes it 7.5. So, that’s a unanimous vote for Cardinals +8.5 here, which makes it the highest-rated model play of the week.
NFL Pick: Cardinals +8.5
Week 14 NFL Odds Model Disagreement
Denver Broncos (-7.5) vs Las Vegas Raiders, O/U 40
There’s really no way around this reality: the Raiders are atrocious. They’re only 4-8 ATS, 2-10 straight up and have lost and failed to cover in three straight. Meanwhile, Denver has won its last five games but failed to cover in two of its last three. In their one meeting this year, Denver won an ugly 10-7 game as 9.5-point favorites.
The average model projection on this game is Denver -6.3, with a variance of nine points. FPI is right in line with the market at 7.5, while Sagarin and TeamRankings project -8 and -9.5, respectively. TSI, however, makes this game a pick ‘em, which is much closer to what we saw the first time these teams played. Digging into the numbers, it looks to me like this is more about Denver being lower in TSI than the market than it is about Vegas being higher. If you think TSI is just way off, by all means, lay the points with Denver as a couple of the models suggest. If you think TSI is the guiding light here, backing the Raiders makes a ton of sense. Or, a totally reasonable path to take is to view the discrepancy as these teams are really inconsistent, and there’s no strong play either way.
Keep an eye out for this weekly feature on Fridays, my Tuesday NFL best bets, and my Thursday college football model comparison.
